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    China Is A Bright Light In The Global Financial Debt Crisis.

    2011/8/13 8:58:00 45

    Financial Debt Storm Lights

    This week, the world economy and stock market went through a field.

    disastrous

    Blow.


    S & P, one of the world's three largest rating agencies, disregards the US government.

    Annoyed

    The credit rating of US Treasury bonds dropped from AAA to AA+, which led to panic among global investors.

    The United States dropped from 11444.61 points of the Dow Jones industrial average to 10809, and European stock markets continued to fall until Thursday evening (Friday morning).

    China's economy and stock market performed best in the world financial turmoil. It is a red flag and a bright light in the hearts of the world investors and the people of the world. First of all, it stabilized on Wednesday, and on Thursday it completely ignored the continued fall in the eve of the US and Europe.

    The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.27%, and Shenzhen's index rose by 1.5%. It immediately became a strong support for investors in the world and became the most dazzling light in the dark.

    Encouraged by the upsurge of China's stock market, stocks rose sharply in most major countries on Thursday night: Dow Jones rose 423 points to 11143 points (+3.95%); NASDAQ rose 111 points (+4.69%); the S & P index rose 51 points (+4.63).

    The FTSE index rose 3.11%; German DAX rose 3.28%; France rose 2.89%; Switzerland rose 5.02%; Italy rose 4.1%; Spain rose 3.41%; Denmark rose 4.48%.

    If there is no accident, the "S & P - US debt downgrade storm" experienced by the world and China's stock market should be the "biggest shock wave", and the darkest period may have passed.


    The international rating agencies of "S & P" need not be overly valued. They have been seriously underestimating China's currency and treasury bonds.


    In fact, this storm can be seen that some investors in the developed countries are also simple and naive.

    France was worried about being named AA+, which took the lead in Europe and Germany fell the most.

    They overrated the ratings of the three rating agencies of S & P, Moodie and Fitch.


    But when I was doing the program in Sina micro-blog and Shanghai TV first finance, I firmly pointed out that we should not be too superstitious about the ratings of the S & P, because for decades, they have been in China for 30 years.

    Thriving

    GDP has increased by tens of times the great number of 1 billion 300 million people, and the RMB has appreciated for 6 years. The most highly creditable country with high economic growth has been rated very low since the ancient times. The Treasury bonds have been on a low rating for a long time and A+ for a long time. It was not until December 16, 2010 that they announced long and late: "the sovereign credit rating of China's long-term foreign currency and local currency will be raised from A+ to AA, and the long-term rating outlook is stable."

    Ladies and gentlemen, please think about what kind of country China is, a rapid economic growth, a very stable political situation, a continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate (now the exchange rate is around 1:6.4, and the purchasing power parity is 1:3.94, that is, appreciation); they beat us so low.

    There are many indicators of the three rating agencies such as S & P, which are unscientific, not rigorous, not strategic, not macro, far sighted, and not atmospheric.


    China's currency and treasury bonds have been seriously underestimated, which is the highest in the world.


    They believe that China is a non democratic country and the political situation may be unstable.

    In fact, there are several factors in the long-term stability of China's political situation.


    First, one party leadership and multi-party cooperation; two, the army is loyal to the party and the branch is built on the link; three, the economy is generally growing at a high speed and the people's life is improving in general; four, the Chinese people are industrious, brave and hardworking; they are all very patriotic, and everyone has the heart of their motherland and mutual love; five, China's treasury bonds are very few; 40 trillion GDP, only 6 trillion and 700 billion (by the end of 2010); plus 10 trillion of the local financing platform, which is 10 trillion.

    China has little foreign debt, and foreign exchange reserves are US $3 trillion and 200 billion, and US Treasury bonds are US $1 trillion and 100 billion.

    China has issued 6 - 7 trillion treasury bonds on the basis of the present, and has not yet reached the world safety warning line.

    The US GDP14.95 trillion dollars, the national debt has reached 14 trillion and 290 billion U.S. dollars, has reached more than 90%, plus this time the increase of 2 trillion.

    The US debt is now rated AA+, while the Chinese national debt is AA - absurd.


    China's national debt credit should be above AAA+.


    Because of the appreciation of the renminbi, the national strength is growing; because China directly owns a large number of assets: customs duties, state taxes, mines, railways, oil, telecommunications, land, and the issuance of national debt is strictly restricted by the NPC.

    Is there any risk in this debt?

    It can be said that the way is right.

    Gilt-edged bonds


    Since the currency and national debt of the first big country such as "BRIC" can be criticized in a random way, what else can he do wrong?


    The US position is irreplaceable; the US Treasury bond is rising; China has no loss.


    There are many problems in the United States. I have never been superstitious about it.

    I have always thought that a few college education such as Tsinghua and others were not completely successful, and a few of the best students have been trained: "just want to go abroad without patriotism, science and education to invigorate the country and the United States".

    But the United States is indeed a strong and well deserved world power.

    The US GDP14.95 trillion dollars, China 5 trillion and 800 billion dollars, Japan 5 trillion and 400 billion US dollars.

    The United States has a population of three hundred million, rich in land and rich in mineral resources and investing all over the world.

    Yes, the United States is the largest debtor country in the world and the largest creditor nation.

    The United States has a lot of investment in China, and KFC, McDonald's, Coca-Cola and Microsoft are all profitable.

    In addition, the US military expenditure is very large. Last year, the military expenditure was 698 billion dollars (6 times more than China), accounting for 43% of the world's military expenditure. If the United States did not fight like Canada and Australia, Obama's deficit would be reduced by 5 trillion dollars.

    Therefore, I say that the S & P rating personnel are likely to be bookworm. They are not macro, strategic, atmospheric, or far sighted to the United States.

    I really don't understand what the S & amp; P are doing.


    At present, no country's economic strength can replace the US, and no currency can replace the US dollar as the world currency.


    Please look at the end of 2010:


    The United States has GDP:14.95 trillion dollars; the population is more than 300 million; it has about more than 8000 tons of gold.


    Germany GDP:3.32 trillion dollars; population more than 81 million 880 thousand;


    UK GDP: US $2 trillion and 250 billion; population: more than 61 million 840 thousand;


    France GDP:2.58 trillion dollars; population more than 62 million 620 thousand;


    Canada GDP:1.57 trillion dollars; population more than 33 million 740 thousand;


    (Note: the above GDP is the end of 2010, and the population is at the end of 2009).


    The world's gold reserves are 30534.5 tons.

    (resource volume is about 90 thousand tons)


    No currency, treasury bonds and gold can become the world's currencies and quasi currencies.

    China's GDP5.8 trillion dollars, gold

    reserve

    The world is fifth, very few.


    In short, do not superstition the United States, nor despise the United States.


    In addition, the US Treasury bonds were rated AA+ by the S & P, but China's 1 trillion and 100 billion US Treasury bonds were not lost because it actually rose.


                          


    (Note: Xie Bai San, director of the center for finance and capital markets, Fudan University)

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