Can The Acquisition Of National Reserves Hold The Bottom Of Cotton?

　 The roller coaster market experienced by the cotton market in the past year is rare.

As cotton prices rose, textile companies hoarded a lot. High value cotton When cotton prices plummeted, these high priced cotton became the burden of spinning enterprises, and a large number of polyester staple fibers replaced the market demand for cotton. With the coming of the new cotton year, whether the 19800 yuan / ton National Reserve purchase can save the bottom of the cotton market has become the focus of investors' attention.

"Although the state purchase and storage rules explicitly promise not to limit the open purchase, the 328 index still falls below the purchasing and storage price. This shows that the textile factory still has reservations about the policy, and how much irrational element of this suspicion needs to be considered. According to the current trend, the policy of purchasing and storage may start at the beginning of the new year. "A textile enterprise told the futures Daily reporter that textile enterprises basically used the purchase of cotton in the purchase of cotton, and the loss of cotton enterprises was serious. There were some cases of auctions by banks. Under the circumstances that no funds could be recovered, the amount of money acquired for the acquisition of new cotton after sale this year was much lower than that of last year.

Xu Yu, a cotton analyst at Nanxian futures, is very calm when it comes to the current market. "The bottom of the US cotton market is clear, and there is a possibility of double bottom. After 100 cents, Asian buying is coming in. But Zheng cotton futures are more cautious, and the price has not gone out of the downward channel, but the moving average system has begun to flatten, indicating that the decline of kinetic energy has begun to fade away. "

Judging from the recent market, after experiencing a series of "earthquake" such as the European debt crisis, the US debt crisis and the US sovereign credit rating downgrades, the cotton futures market at home and abroad showed signs of stabilization. US cotton hit the daily limit on Friday with the promotion of buyers. Zheng cotton nearly 120 thousand hands on the recent two date, and the price has also risen slightly.

Huang Junfei, a cotton futures analyst at Yangtze futures, is researching in spinning enterprises. He talked about the current situation. Cotton market In the current situation, we should not overlook the cotton market. Zheng cotton may turn from a market to a balanced market. Now the cleaning of cotton yarn and cotton inventory is accelerating, and the new cotton year will come.

"He also said that now the whole country has formed three price levels: the linen of the large textile mill and the small 200 processing plant lint. The price is determined to be below 18000 yuan / ton; the middle 400 processing plant, the lint cost is 18000 yuan / ton - 20000 yuan / ton, and the target price is determined by the storage and warehouse receipt. After the profit value of the textile factory is improved, the 20000 yuan / ton (the current price of yarn 21500 yuan / ton) can also be guaranteed, and the futures minimum price should be more than 19500." There will be no reverse market before the reversal of the industrial situation in October. According to the base value extreme value of 3000, the May contract's recent fluctuation range is 20000 to 23000. "Huang Junfei believes that it is unlikely that there will be any trend in the near future.

From the August report released by the US Department of agriculture, the whole is empty. The global cotton consumption has decreased more than the output reduction, but the cotton end inventory has increased in the current and next year, but the inventory consumption ratio of the global cotton is still below the historical average.

　　 Zheng cotton The index has shown signs of stabilising in recent days, especially when the sharp increase in positions shows that there are certain main funds pallets below, and the US debt incident has little effect on its trend. In addition, the downward pressure line formed at the 33306 point of the high point is also facing the pressure of the trial price. Once effective breakthroughs will take place, a strong rebound will take place. It is expected that the acquisition will become an opportunity to rebound in the price.

"Fund manager of an investment company admitted that he was paying close attention to the timing of cotton production.