Can Chemical Fibers Never Break Away From The "Cotton Knot"?

Polyester staple and viscose Spun There is an obvious substitution relationship with cotton, and the linkage trend between the three prices is natural. That is to say, the rise of cotton prices will directly lead to the rise of viscose staple and polyester staple fibres, and vice versa. For this phenomenon of price entanglement and tangled chaos, the industry has a figurative Metaphor -- the "cotton knot" of chemical fiber raw materials.

In recent years, the market trend of polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber has shown regular changes along with the rise and fall of cotton, especially since last year, cotton prices have been rising and falling. When will these chemical fiber varieties get rid of the influence and bondage of cotton and decide their fate? Is there really a "cotton knot" that can never be broken on them?

　　 The price difference is established by the market.

According to reporters, this phenomenon is mainly due to Cotton price The rise of production cost the production cost of downstream spinning and weaving enterprises. Instead, the enterprises turn to use more chemical fiber staple with a certain price advantage and similar performance, mainly polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber, thereby driving the growth of short fiber market demand, and then driving up the price of staple fiber. Spun Prices and cotton prices have always maintained a certain price difference.

At present, the latent price crisis is accompanied by the trend of the two prices. There is always a certain price difference between cotton and staple fiber. The rationality of this difference is established by the market. According to the reporter's understanding, judging from the different angles, the rationality of the difference is different. The criterion is whether the current price difference is conducive to improving the consumption and demand of cotton or staple fiber.

In recent years, the cotton market has been more and more influenced by national policies and capital markets. How to accurately judge market changes? First, we must closely follow national policies. The two big ups and downs in the cotton market are related to market regulation. Last year, cotton prices were running high, a large number of hot money entered the field of seed cotton purchase, and seed cotton purchase market was in chaos. In order to guide the acquisition of seed cotton and maintain market order, the state has adopted a series of measures to strengthen cotton market management, strengthen cotton quality supervision and strengthen information guidance, so as to push prices down in mid November last year. After that, cotton prices fell sharply due to increased inflationary pressures at home and abroad. The CPI index continued to rise. The state further stepped up regulation and control, raised the deposit reserve ratio and raised interest rates, continuously squeezed social stock funds, tighten funds in textile enterprises, and lowered the cost competitiveness of textile enterprises, forcing down cotton prices.

Accurately judge market changes, and grasp market operation rules. Cotton is the most commercialized agricultural product. Its price trend is greatly influenced by the capital market. It is not easy to accurately grasp the market operation situation. However, in practical operation, we can comprehensively analyze and grasp the profit and profit factors of the national policy orientation, international and domestic market environment through the basic analysis of cotton supply and demand, as close as possible to the track of the invisible hand of the market, so as to make a correct judgement for business activities.

Cotton and polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber depend on each other and replace each other. According to the market trend in the past five years, the difference between viscose staple fiber and cotton is reasonable between 3000~4000 yuan. The high price of cotton will drive the market demand of viscose staple fiber. However, the price difference between viscose staple and cotton is not always maintained at 3000~4000 yuan.

In May 2010 ~12, due to weak market demand and ample supply, the price of viscose staple fiber has been consistent with cotton prices. Even in the middle of November, viscose staple fiber followed the cotton step by step, and the difference between them was almost zero.

As a substitute for cotton, viscose has a unique advantage. It is a cellulose fiber produced from cotton or other natural fibers. It has been playing an important role in the spinning industry due to its good moisture absorption, air permeability, antistatic, dyeability, drapability and comfort. Due to continuous reform of production technology and equipment, further improvement of fiber properties, viscose staple fiber gradually solve the problem of production environment protection. However, on the basis of performance improvement, viscose staple fiber is facing the practical problems of lack of raw materials and overproduction of products.

According to the statistics of viscose board of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, last year, viscose showed a continuous rising trend. The supply and demand of products were basically balanced, and the production and sales volume also increased considerably. In 1~10 months, the output of viscose fiber increased by 4.24% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was narrowed. The starting rate of viscose fiber production enterprises was about 90%, the annual pulp output was about 1 million 300 thousand tons, and viscose fiber production was about 1 million 900 thousand tons. However, the price of viscose staple fiber has not been substantially improved, with the gross profit margin of viscose from the beginning of the year to 6%~8%.

Why did the viscose staple fiber soared in 2010? The cotton production also dragged down the output of cotton lint. About 30% of the production reduced the price of cotton lint directly to a new high in history. With the increase of cost and the pain of reducing production, cotton pulp not only had high price but also brought a bleak result of low opening rate. The viscose staple fiber landed with a halo of high cotton prices, accompanied by shortages of raw materials and high costs, all of which contributed to the sharp rise in viscose staple fibers in the short term.

Although viscose staple fiber has a strong reason to rise, the downstream market is unbearable. Facing the gradual end of replenishment needs, the profits of downstream enterprises are also decreasing significantly, and weak demand also makes the market not keen on the purchase of chemical fiber raw materials. In addition, the sharp rise and fall of raw material prices has made downstream enterprises more cautious. RMB appreciation and inflation have further deepened export difficulties. In short, the market demand for viscose staple fiber is not optimistic this year due to the sharp fluctuations in cotton prices and other factors. {page_break}

　 The substitution effect of chemical fiber is rising gradually.

In an interview with reporters, enterprises said that in recent years, the increase of chemical fiber production capacity and low price will lead to the increase of the substitution effect of chemical fiber, and to a certain extent, inhibit cotton consumption. Since the second half of 2011, the new capacity of PTA has been put into operation in China, and the situation that PTA is in short supply has been improved. The increase in cotton production also led to more space for production of viscose staple fibers using cotton lint as raw material. At present, the price of polyester staple fiber is 12600 yuan / ton, and the average price of viscose staple fiber is 18000 yuan / ton, which is 8600 yuan / ton lower than the current cotton price and 3100 yuan / ton respectively. The price difference makes the chemical fiber have great price advantage.

In 2010, the substitution effect of chemical fiber was limited, mainly due to the limited supply of chemical fibers and the fact that textile and garment enterprises did not adjust the process in time. However, the supply of chemical fiber will be more relaxed in 2011. Unreasonable price differentials will also lead textile enterprises to adjust their technology.

Experts have made a comprehensive analysis of the cotton price of about 20000 yuan per ton, which does not have absolute advantages. High cotton prices will stimulate the increase of the global cotton planting area in the next two years, and at the same time curb the excessive growth of cotton demand. If the new cotton weather is good for a long time, there will still be many uncertainties about the price of cotton worldwide. Next year, the domestic cotton price is supported by the policy of collecting and storing, and the probability of fluctuation is around 3000 yuan, which is around 20000 yuan / ton. Increased production and stable demand will guide cotton prices to gradually return to normal level in the next 3 years.

Since June, the cotton futures of Zhengshang have been gradually falling after reaching a new high level in the beginning of the month. The price of cotton and cottonseed in the spot market did not fluctuate day by day with the fluctuation of futures prices. The purchase price of grade three lint of domestic large textile mills was 22000 yuan / ton, which was 1000 yuan / ton lower than that of the futures market. From the survey of the cotton industry chain in early July, the downward trend of export volume, backlog and production volume of textile industry has not yet been reversed. This makes the industry unoptimistic about the performance of cotton prices in the future.

Survey data show that the inventory clearance of the textile industry chain has not been completed. Of the 30 textile enterprises surveyed, 80% failed to complete the sales promotion order plan at the end of June. The inventory and pessimism of large and medium-sized textile enterprises far exceed that of small enterprises. Some large textile enterprises have 60 or two days' inventory of cotton yarn or cotton cloth, even if they stop production for two months. In addition, the capacity utilization rate of printing and dyeing factories dropped to below 80%, and the direct exporters did not receive long-term large orders in the past years, and questioned whether the cotton textile industry could recover in the first half of next year. At the same time, cotton production and processing industry generally believe that the new year cotton delivery warehouse receipts will be given priority to the State Reserve. Due to the relatively ideal weather conditions, the forward contract intention of zhengmian 1201 began to increase after the current price difference widened, but the ginning factory was affected by the double knot zero of the end of July.

The downstream exporters surveyed all locked the expected purchase price of cotton in the new year in the vicinity of the national storage price of 19800 yuan / ton. They believe that once the industry is showing signs of warming next year, the textile export tax rebate will be substantially adjusted. It can be seen that as long as there is no bad weather in August and September, the new year cotton is expected to be listed ahead of schedule, and smoothly connect with the cotton resources this year.

　　 New fiber resistance to cotton dependence

In the era of high cotton prices and the huge fluctuation of raw material prices such as cotton, what is the way out for textile enterprises? Insiders believe that textile enterprises should take measures such as reducing inventories and improving product quality, especially large quantities of new fibers and other measures to cope with fluctuations in raw material prices.

Vigorously developing and applying new fibers is the first choice to resist cotton dependence. The huge fluctuation of cotton prices has brought a fatal blow to small and medium-sized cotton textile enterprises, but it has little impact on textile enterprises using new fibers. According to relevant reports, Dezhou Huayuan Textile Co., Ltd. is a new modern textile company. It has 60 thousand rings, 60 thousand compact spins, and 16 sets of eddy spinning in Murata, Japan. Based on market demand, they successfully developed modal new yarn such as modal, Tencel, bamboo fiber, moisture absorption and sweat fiber, milk fiber, bingba fiber, heating fiber, nylon fiber, soybean fiber and cashmere. At the same time, the organic cotton yarn has passed international certification, and its products are sold to all parts of the country, and exported to Korea, Japan, Hongkong, China and other countries and regions. The fluctuation of cotton price has little impact on the enterprise, production and operation is normal, and the operating rate is 100%.

In recent years, under the background of the depression of the whole industry, a group of textile enterprises such as Hengfeng, Shengze, Baoding and Fuhua in Lingxian County, Shandong has sprung up, vigorously developing new fibers, and explored a new way for textile enterprises to use cotton. In the past few months, the cotton textile industry is extremely difficult, the effectiveness of new fiber enterprises has steadily increased, and maintained a steady momentum of development. According to statistics, at present, Lingxian County has more than 30 new fiber textile enterprises above Designated Size, with 1 million 200 thousand production capacity and 30% of the same industry in China. The new fiber textile varieties have reached more than 30 series and more than 500 varieties, covering more than 90% varieties in the market. Relying on the product structure of many varieties, differentiation and new-type, Lingxian County's new fiber textile enterprises are able to stand alone in this year's textile industry predicament. {page_break}

Lingxian County Hengfeng textile company is a large cotton spinning enterprise with 150 thousand spindles. It mainly produces pure and spun special yarns, such as modal, Tianzhu, Holland viscose, and Lan Jing viscose. Jia Guoqiang, deputy general manager of the company, said that Hengfeng company mainly used new fibers, and the amount of cotton used was very small, less than 20%. In recent years, cotton prices have dropped, and market demand for new fiber products has not decreased. Cotton price fluctuations have little impact on enterprises. At present, enterprises have been producing at full capacity, with inventory of only 500 tons, which is equivalent to more than 10 days' output of enterprises, and there is no problem of backlog of products.

At the same time, compressed inventory, reduce capital occupation and hard work, improve product quality are very effective. Shandong Xiajin county is the national high quality cotton production base. The annual cotton planting area is about 600 thousand mu. In recent years, the local government has made great efforts to develop the textile industry. The county's cotton textile enterprises have reached 140, and the scale of spinning has been 2 million 200 thousand spindles, becoming the "famous textile city of China". Xiajin county is dominated by small and medium-sized textile enterprises. In this wave of cotton prices, the local textile enterprises have become "the hardest hit areas". In recent months, enterprises have tried various ways to promote sales, but they still can't sell. Cotton yarn stocks generally reach 1.5 to two months (normal stock is 15~20 days), inventory pressure is increasing, a lot of capital is occupied, turnover is very difficult, no money to buy raw materials, many enterprises have no choice but to stop production and shutdown.

Cotton prices fluctuate in the near future, and enterprises can only take some small orders. With the reduction of large orders, the stock of enterprises gradually increases and capital turnover is difficult. Most of the local small spinning enterprises below 30 thousand spindles have low product grades, short capital chain, and greater inventory pressure. This is also the main reason for many local discontinued enterprises.

De cotton Limited by Share Ltd is a large integrated cotton textile enterprise integrating spinning, dyeing, weaving and processing. It has 230 thousand rings, 3000 air spun products, and the overall equipment has reached the leading level in the same industry in the country, with over 80% of its products exported to all parts of the world. Li Chuanbo, assistant general manager of German cotton Limited by Share Ltd and manager of raw materials company, analyzed the reasons for the difficult situation of the textile enterprises at that time. It is believed that since the second half of last year, domestic cotton prices have risen sharply and wage levels have risen, leading to the increase of comprehensive production costs, pushing up the price of cotton textiles, and many foreign orders have begun to transfer to Southeast Asian countries.

Li Chuanbo believes that the current labor pains of textile enterprises may be a good thing for the whole industry, forcing enterprises to improve product quality and eliminate backward production capacity. In the future, with the rise of domestic labor costs, the road to low-cost expansion may not work. At present, textile enterprises should not only reduce their inventory, but also work hard on the quality and style of the products. We should improve R & D capability, constantly introduce new products, enrich the styles of products, meet the needs of the market, and minimize the impact of fluctuations in cotton prices.

A large number of small and medium sized cotton spinning enterprises, with low product grades and identical product structure, are all low-grade goods with high technical content. They can not compete with the market at all. In recent years, the fluctuation of cotton price has almost become the norm. Only by using less cotton and reducing the dependence on cotton, can the operation of enterprises be less affected by the fluctuation of cotton prices, and the high added value of new fiber products has enhanced the market competitiveness of enterprises. Some business operators have realized that in the next few years, domestic cotton production potential is limited, and the gap between supply and demand will exist for a long time. The textile industry must carry out structural adjustment so that the products can be transformed from low-grade and extensive to high-grade and refined, and actively develop high added value non cotton fibers, reduce the ratio of cotton to cotton and reduce the dependence on cotton.

From the actual development of the industry in recent years, we can see that the technical progress of polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber industry is obvious. It is manifested in the obvious improvement of product quality, the differentiation and the increase of functional varieties. Many varieties have not only replaced cotton, but are able to better meet the diversified market demand of downstream industries, and play an important role in promoting industrial upgrading.