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The Price Of Cotton Plummeted And The Market Was Deserted &Nbsp; How About The New Cotton Market During The Year?

2011/8/20 11:51:00 50

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Since July, production and sales of domestic textile industry have been more and more weak, and the start-up rate of factories has continued to decline, and the start-up rate in many areas is even less than 20%.

The sales market of various textile products is also very cold and very depressed, and domestic textiles have entered a real sales slack season.

The textile prosperity index of Keqiao, China, can be corroborated accordingly.

Weak market sales, manufacturers are also eager to ship, repeatedly downregulated.

Gauze

The price will be refunded.

Textile manufacturers are cautious about purchasing cotton. Compared with cotton sales companies, they are actively promoting price cuts.

The domestic market of textiles is cold and the export is more light.

Many enterprises that have done foreign trade this year have expressed their small orders, even worse than the 2009 global financial crisis. A few foreign trade companies in Guangdong and Hangzhou have failed.

Some orders for external processing enterprises are few, and the start-up is seriously inadequate, especially in comparison with the same period last year.

Recently, the author consulted Guangdong, Panyu, Foshan, Xiqiao, Dongguan and other processing enterprises and foreign production enterprises. They all say that the market has not been very good since this year, and the orders are few.

Guangzhou, a foreign-owned company with 300 large circular machines, has just produced 20 pounds per day, and has a day off every week.

The person in charge of a knitted fabric production and processing enterprise in Dongguan said that after July, the output was only 2-3 pounds per day, while the best time in the first half of the year was 60 thousand pounds per day, which fell sharply compared with the output of knitted fabric nearly 120 thousand pounds per day last year.

Current enterprise downtime

Machine platform

More, the whole production workshop seems rather cold.

At present, the production enterprises are losing money, and most manufacturers show frustration.

In addition, a foreign trade company in Shanghai also said that no order has been received in Europe for half a year, and the company has set up factories in Vietnam.

In the past, 60% of Jiangsu's enterprises were Japanese, and this year there was basically nothing to do.

Many manufacturers sigh that the domestic textile industry is becoming more and more difficult.

China's Keqiao foreign trade price index has also been declining, although the boom index has begun to pick up since the end of June, but it is still not as high as the beginning of the year.

The following list shows the changes in China's textile indices in Keqiao this year.

Affected by the sluggish sales of textile products,

Cotton price

What is the future of cotton prices? The author makes the following analysis for reference to the price trend analysis of the latter cotton market.

First of all, we recall the price trend of cotton prices in recent years, and cotton prices continue to fall in the second half of this year.

In 2010/2011, domestic cotton has seen a rare boom, and its price has almost doubled.

There will be a sharp drop in inflation, just like the sharp rise and fall of viscose staple in 2007.

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Since the middle of March this year, domestic cotton prices have started to stop falling. The price of grade three cotton fell from April 10th to May 10th, and the price of a month fell by 5000 yuan / ton.

After a relatively stable period, prices began to slide, especially in July, when domestic cotton prices intensified, with an average daily drop of 100-200 yuan / ton.

Among them, the domestic average price of grade three cotton dropped from 24500 yuan / ton in June 30th to 19500 yuan / ton in August 15th, and it dropped by nearly 5000 yuan / ton in just one and a half months.

Although the price of cotton is still falling, it is relatively less likely that cotton prices will continue to fall sharply, which is affected by the country's 19800 yuan / ton purchase and storage price plus cotton farmers' cost accounting.

To stabilize the cotton planting area in 2012/2013, the state should introduce policies to maintain relative stability of cotton prices.

The decline has slowed down in the middle of this month, but the price of cotton will probably continue to be affected by the new cotton harvest, the decline in textile start-up rate and the sluggish sales of downstream products.

The following list shows the price situation before and after the new cotton market in the past six years:

Price trends in late July, end September and December

130001300013700 slight rise in 2005

140001310012600 fell slightly in 2006

145001330013600 slight rise in 2007

140001300011000 declines in 2008

2009 134001330015000 medium rise

2010 185002100032000 skyrocketing

2011 20500

In conclusion, it seems that cotton prices are likely to fall sharply this year.

Second, cotton growth is good in all cotton producing countries all over the world this year. Cotton harvest is expected in 2011/2012.

In recent years, the growth of new cotton in Xinjiang, Shandong, Hebei, Anhui and Jiangsu has been quite good in recent years.

The trend of global cotton production increase in 2011/12.

From a global point of view, in the last two years, the decline in cotton yield per unit area is mainly due to weather reasons. If the planting area is expected to increase substantially, cotton production will increase correspondingly as long as the weather is not too bad in the future, or worse than 2010/11.

If weather is good, cotton production will increase substantially and exceed expectations. That is to say, increasing production is almost certain.

We expect global cotton output to reach 27 million 260 thousand tons in 2011/12, an increase of 2 million 380 thousand tons over the previous year, an increase of 9.55%.

Among them, China increased output by 560 thousand tons, India increased 570 thousand tons, the United States increased output by 320 thousand tons, Pakistan increased output by 80 thousand tons, and other cotton producing countries increased output by 840 thousand tons.

Finally, the global economy is still in the doldrums, and the textile consumer market is hard to pick up.

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This year, the export situation of domestic textile and clothing is still poor. On the one hand, the rising cost of labor and raw materials has made some foreign buyers move to other textile producers with more price advantages (such as India and Pakistan).

In addition, the global economy has not yet fully recovered, and the procurement of textile and clothing is not big enough, and the export of domestic textile and clothing has been affected.

This year, a considerable number of enterprises making foreign orders also fought in the domestic market, which also led to the increasingly fierce competition in domestic clothing prices, and the prices of all wholesale clothing markets were generally lower than in previous years.

For the second half of the textile and apparel consumer market, most people are not optimistic.

In addition, the national development and Reform Commission recently released a report that the pace of domestic textile development will slow down in the second half of the year.

At present, textile enterprises are faced with the "three shortage and one high" predicament of "labor shortage", "financing shortage", "electricity shortage" and high cost.

Because of the sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, the rapid increase in wage costs, the continued appreciation of the renminbi, the slow growth of market demand, coupled with tight money supply and tight electricity supply, small and micro textile garment enterprises will be greatly affected, and the situation facing the textile industry is not optimistic.