The Industry Expects The Fastest Oil Price Cut By The End Of This Month.

Since the outbreak of the euro debt crisis and the US debt crisis, the two major indicators of international crude oil, ICE crude oil futures and Nymex crude oil futures (Nymex WTI) have dropped sharply in New York. Among them, WTI crude oil futures fell for four consecutive weeks, closing at 82.87 U.S. dollars / barrel in the United States at 19 local time.

Brent, Xin TA and Dubai crude oil futures The average price fell by 7%, 3% and 4% respectively compared with the beginning of July. The WTI crude oil futures in New York have fallen by 18% since July 22nd, the biggest monthly decline since October 2008.

According to the calculation data of interest energy, as of August 18th, the change rate of the weighted average price of crude oil in three places (Brent, Dubai and Xin TA) has been changing from negative to -0.78%. (Note: according to China's current oil price management measures (Trial Implementation), the highest retail price of gasoline and diesel is announced by the national development and Reform Commission. When the change rate of weighted average price of crude oil in three places is over 4% consecutive 22 working days, the price of domestic refined oil can be adjusted accordingly.

Relevant analysts say, if crude oil Prices will fall further, and the NDRC will probably lower oil prices by the end of August. Previously, the NDRC has promised that if the price adjustment window is opened, the oil price will be cut down in time.

Another source said that the new oil pricing mechanism is likely to be introduced in the second half of this year.

European and American debt crisis hits hard oil prices

In last week's trading session, crude oil prices Fall The most serious is 18 days. At that time, a series of weak economic data affected investors' fears of a recession in the US economy. On the same day, oil prices in New York dropped by 5.94%, and Brent crude dropped by 3.26%. Citibank and JP Morgan lowered their forecasts for us economic growth last week as the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the United States continued to deteriorate.

On the next 19 days, the difference between ICE Brent crude oil and New York WTI crude oil reached a record $26.21 a barrel.

The industry's outlook on the international crude oil market this week is still empty. Bloomberg reported 21 days ago that it surveyed 38 analysts, of which 16 (42%) believe that international crude oil prices will still fall this week. 11 analysts (29%) believe that international oil prices will rise. Another 11 analysts believe that this week will remain flat.

"From the general trend, as long as there is no major change, the international crude oil price will rebound sharply, and the price of refined oil will be lowered from the end of August to the beginning of September." Sheng Wang energy analyst Chu Jie yesterday told the Morning Post reporter.

According to the data of interest energy inspection, the average weighted average change rate of crude oil is three -0.78% to 18 days. Another oil and gas monitoring agency Dongfang oil and gas network said, as of 18 days, the three crude oil assessment price averaged 108.537 US dollars / barrel, mobile average 111.577 US dollars / barrel, weighted average price change rate -0.765%.

Golden Island, a commodity e-commerce platform, said that if the price of oil continues to fall next week, then the earliest change in the weighted average price of crude oil will reach the critical level of -4% on the 24-28 day of August as early as three.

Cheng Ruifeng, an analyst at Dongfang oil and gas network, believes that if the price of crude oil is kept near $109 / barrel, the domestic price adjustment window may be delayed until early September.

The last time China adjusted the refined oil price in April 7th, it raised the price of gasoline and diesel by 500 yuan and 400 yuan per ton respectively. This is the second time in this year that the retail price of refined oil has been adjusted to a record high in China.

New mechanism or shortened cycle

Since the current method requires the mobile average price change rate of 22 working days, every time the positive turn or negative turn has to overcome the huge inertia so as to achieve the requirement of plus or minus 4%. For example, even if Brent crude oil futures fell by 10% a day, the allocation to 22 working days could only cause less than 0.5% of the impact.

It is precisely because of the limitation of the "measures" that since April 7th this year, the domestic oil price has not been moved for more than four months, and during this period, the international two benchmark oil price peaks and valleys are all over 20%.

Xinhua News Agency reported that, in stark contrast, by the impact of international oil prices, Sinopec Hongkong oil station company announced in August 10th that it lowered the retail price of gasoline and diesel, which is the fourth time since May that Sinopec has adjusted its price in Hongkong, three of which has been lowered.

However, insiders who do not want to be named will reveal that the new oil pricing mechanism will be a big probability event in the second half of the year.

In an interview with the Morning Post reporter at the beginning of this year, Ding Shaoheng, senior engineer of China Petroleum (9.79, -0.02, -0.20%) natural gas Limited by Share Ltd planning general office, revealed that the new mechanism should be changed, and the cycle would be clearer. It will change from 22 working days to 10 working days, and the case has been reported. In terms of the price adjustment body, it was previously proposed by the NDRC, and the State Council finally decided. Now the bias is directly determined by the NDRC without the adoption of the State Council.

Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economics Research Center of Xiamen University, said in an interview with the Morning Post reporter that the international oil price drop now has paved the way for the introduction of a new price adjustment mechanism.

When the new mechanism will be introduced and when to cut oil prices, there is no fixed number. But private gas stations have already heard the news. A gas station in Baoshan District, Shanghai, has reduced the price of gasoline 93 to 7.25 yuan, which is 0.54 yuan lower than the highest retail guidance price of 7.79 yuan.

At a more upstream trader and middleman level, a person familiar with the matter told the Morning Post reporter, "crude oil prices have fallen so much that the rise in oil products is hopeless. Traders are not very willing to buy goods now. We generally see the post market. These people explained that during the financial crisis in 2008, international oil prices collapsed, and many traders suffered heavy losses, so this year we are much more cautious.