Europe'S Debt Dilemma Is &Nbsp; Can Euro Zone Break Its Tail To Survive?

　　 Euro The proposal for joint bonds has been bombarded by Germany and France, and the second round of Greece's bail-out plan has become a hot issue. The European debt dilemma still seems to be in a difficult situation. At present, many experts have suggested that if the European debt crisis is to be resolved, member states may have to withdraw from the euro area.

The leaders of Germany and France on Tuesday said they did not approve of the introduction of eurozone joint bonds. German Chancellor Merkel said the launch of eurozone common bonds would not help solve the crisis. French President Sarkozy also expressed the same view on this proposition.

At the same time, the European debt crisis has begun to threaten the overall economy of Europe. Germany and France, led by Germany and France, together with the euro area's overall economic growth data are exhausted: Germany's second quarter quarter GDP seasonally adjusted quarterly growth rate has increased by 0.1%, and its growth has almost stagnated. In the second quarter of the second quarter, after the seasonally adjusted quarter, GDP's initial value growth rate increased 0.2%, with an expected growth of 0.3%, a new low since the second quarter of 2009. And France's second quarter GDP "zero" growth.

MohamedEl-Erian, CO chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Company, recently pointed out that the European sovereign debt crisis will enter third years, and the actions taken by the authorities have not prevented it. Finance Market turmoil, so to ensure that the euro continues to survive, member states need to leave the euro area.

El-Erian believes that the move will shape a smaller, tighter and more robust eurozone. In an interview with US media last week, he said that the euro zone could finally accept this approach to maintain the status quo.

El-Erian has previously concluded that there will be a withdrawal of weaker euro countries, or more than 3 countries.

DennisGartman, the famous strategic investor, believes that the five European countries will go bankrupt in the next 10-20 years. He will be prepared for this situation. The first case of bankruptcy will appear in the next 1 and a half years, and other countries will fall down one after another.

The survival of the broken tail was also mentioned by Soros, a financial predator. Soros, chairman of the Soros fund management company, warned in June 26th that the euro zone "may inevitably" need to set up an exit mechanism for its member states.

At a seminar held in Vienna on that day, Soros pointed out that there is no arrangement for Member States to withdraw from the euro zone policy system, and such a plan may be inevitable under the current worsening European debt crisis. At present, Greece is on the brink of economic collapse, and the crisis is likely to continue to spread to other euro zone member states. Finance The system is extremely fragile.

NeelKashkari, a former US Treasury official and managing director of PIMCO, also made clear in an interview that European leaders should let Greece, Ireland and Portugal default to avoid suffering from Spain and Italy.

Kashkari said that Germany, France, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank should carry out large-scale rescue plans for all euro zone countries except Greece, Ireland and Portugal, so as to establish a "firewall" so as not to hurt Italy and Spain.

The second round of Greece's rescue package

On the 21 day of last month, euro zone leaders unanimously adopted the second round of Greek rescue plan, agreeing to expand the effective loan ability of the European financial stability fund from the previous 250 billion euros to 440 billion euros, and allow the fund to buy fragile national debt directly from the two market, so as to avoid the soaring cost of borrowing. The implementation of the scheme needs the approval of the eurozone national assembly, and the final approval period is now at the end of September. However, after the EU summit passed the above plan for a month, people saw obstacles and resistance from different countries.

One of the resistance came from Germany, the largest investor in EFSF. At present, some lawmakers including the ruling party and the coalition party have made it clear that they will not vote for the above rescue plan. The reason is that German taxpayers have paid too much for the so-called marginal countries that do not comply with financial discipline, and continue to pay for the latter. Many obstacles have raised concerns about whether the new rescue plan can be implemented before the end of next month.

Chen Xin, director of the European Economic Research Office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the most urgent and most effective way to solve the European debt crisis is that the governments of the euro area governments quickly approved and implemented the second round of Greek rescue plan to expand the scale of EFSF and the scope of its Application on the 21 day of last month. However, at the moment, some objections from Germany and the conditions of mortgage guarantee put forward by some countries have made the scheme approved in a timely manner, and this has brought some pressure to market confidence.

Common euro area bond Be excluded

In addition, the issuance of Euro common bonds to reduce the cost of borrowing in marginal countries has also been strongly opposed by Germany and France, which is considered to be the most effective and effective solution to the crisis.

German Finance Minister Robert E. Bush said on Monday that the introduction of eurozone joint bonds in the current situation is equivalent to pushing the European Union into the European debt Union.

In a regional campaign speech, Schauble expressed his opposition to the introduction of eurozone common bonds. He said that only when euro zone members adopted a common fiscal policy, would the concept of eurozone common bonds be feasible.

In addition to sowebler, several eurozone leaders have expressed opposition to the idea of launching eurozone joint bonds.

French Prime Minister Fillon said last Friday that France's stance against the launch of eurozone joint bonds is firm because it will pose a threat to the credit rating of France.

Finland finance minister JuttaUrpilainen said, "every country must be responsible for its current and future debts. Our position will not change. Therefore, we are firmly opposed to the introduction of eurozone joint bonds.

German Chancellor Merkel also reiterated his stance against the launch of eurozone joint bonds last Friday, saying that this did not play a role in solving the euro zone debt crisis.

After meeting with French President Sarkozy, Merkel said that the introduction of eurozone common bonds would not help solve the crisis. Sarkozy said the two sides agreed on the issue.

Analysts pointed out that the final fate of eurozone common bonds is still worth investors' attention. The opposition of Germany and France to the bond is obvious. But Spain and Italy, which are potential targets of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, hope that the agreement will introduce eurozone joint bonds. The focus of the conflict is that the euro area is a common economy rather than a common political system, and the economic development level of the euro area countries is uneven.