Our European And Us Orders Have Plummeted, And Exports Are Expected To Cool Down In August.

When the market is still immersed in the joy of a sharp rebound in exports in July, the risk has quietly arrived.

The sudden decline in export orders of many eastern coastal enterprises means that the negative impact of the economic downturn in Europe and the United States is starting to show up and the future.

Export orders drop suddenly

Dongguan is a famous export of Guangdong and even the whole country.

He Qingming, a macro analyst at Ping An Securities, told reporters that their recent research on export enterprises in Zhejiang also found that the growth rate of import and export trade in Zhejiang in the first half of the year both showed a downward trend, of which the export volume of electromechanical products was the most obvious year-on-year growth rate.

Because private enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises in Zhejiang account for more than 80% of the total export volume, private enterprises accounted for 53.1% of the total export volume. Therefore, the rapid decline of exports has hit the small and medium-sized private enterprises.

An electronic camera enterprise in Dongguan was jointly surveyed by Huatai. The company's products were popular consumer products in the United States. In June, it felt that the order was down and customers cancelled some orders.

At the same time, some of the upstream enterprises in the near future are pressing the bill, hoping to give them the order, so they feel that the order of the upstream enterprises is not very optimistic.

In addition, a shredder enterprise in Dongguan sells 50% of its products to Europe and 40% to the United States.

From this year's orders for 8-9 months, the situation is not optimistic, down 20%-30% from usual.

The company said the orders for 3-4 months were pretty good, but in 6-7 months, sales did not meet expectations because customers suddenly stopped buying.

From Huatai joint research and hundreds of export enterprises, the reduction of orders in Europe and the United States is the main problem encountered by export enterprises. First, the demand for foreign products has declined, and foreign orders have increased in the first half. Foreign enterprises tend to digest existing stocks and consider increasing orders.

Two, the foreign side has voluntarily shortened the inventory cycle, for example, WAL-MART's orders have been adjusted from 8 months to 6 months.

Three, some enterprises are afraid to take orders. Enterprises have adopted conservative management strategies under the condition of rising costs and uncertain prospects.

He Qingming said that the current domestic export business environment is not good, such as the rapid rise in labor costs, the severe inflation situation, the "electricity shortage", the appreciation of the renminbi, and financing difficulties, all of which have caused difficulties for small and medium-sized export enterprises.

At that time, the overseas market was sluggish, and the demand for major export destinations in Europe and the United States dropped sharply, making export enterprises worse.

Exports will go down again

"The substantial increase in exports in July was due to the lag of new orders.

Under such circumstances, it is obviously impossible for exports to increase again. "

Dai Lei, chief researcher of China Aviation securities, said that the financial restructuring of developed countries is advancing, the demand led by the government is receding, and the unemployment rate continues to be high, and the consumption expenditure will also decrease. The adjustment of the European and American economy is inevitable.

Exports are expected to drop sharply to 15% in August, and the downward trend in the second half of the year will remain unchanged.

The Great Wall Securities believes that the sharp rise in exports in July was mainly due to the sharp increase in exports to Japan, but the proportion of the US and EU accounts for a larger proportion of China's exports, which will have an obvious impact on China's exports in the future.

At present, the decline of US consumer confidence index will add to the GDP growth that has fallen into a low ebb.

The euro zone's growth engine is losing momentum, and the recovery of the eurozone will be difficult.

Therefore, the higher export growth rate in July will be difficult to maintain. It is estimated that the export growth rate of China will drop to around 18% in the whole year.

Deng Eryong, a securities strategist at the Yangtze River, said that the downside risk of the US economy is the lack of consumer confidence resulting in insufficient consumer demand. This downturn may still last for 5-6 months.

In the euro area, the rapid economic growth in the early stage due to large-scale investment has begun to slide this month, and other countries are unable to extricate themselves in the mire of debt crisis.