Ye Tan: The National Loan Shark Is China's Most Terrible Financial Risk.

　　 The risk of usury in China has reached the point of imminent danger.

On from August 20th to 21st, Wang Qishan, vice premier of the State Council of China, inspected Gansu province. Financial activities The focus is on social illegal fund-raising and market financial pyramid schemes, in order to maintain order in the financial market and keep the bottom line of systemic and regional financial risks.

The backdrop of this is the usury. financing Close to madness.

According to CCTV's financial channel, the Shiji township of Sihong County in northern Jiangsu is known as "BMW township". After the Spring Festival this year, more than 98% of the villagers in Shiji Township were involved in the crazy usury game. At the end of May this year, the chain of frenzy of usury broke overnight and spread rapidly from Shiji township to other townships.

This is not a grand occasion in a county in Sihong. The wind of high interest rates is blowing all over the country.

At present, there is evidence that Wenzhou investors withdraw from real estate and invest in the usury market. In the first half of this year, the Central Bank of Wenzhou central bank's Wenzhou private lending market report shows that the scale of private lending in Wenzhou is about 110 billion yuan, compared with 80 billion yuan in the same period last year, which means that in the past 1 years, Wenzhou has 30 billion yuan of funds flowing into the private lending sector. In the 1-3 months of this year, the comprehensive interest rates of private lending in Wenzhou were 23.01%, 24.14% and 24.81%, respectively, of which the interest rate in March was at a record high. The interest rate reached 24.6% in May and 24.4% in June. According to the bank's survey, 89% of households in Wenzhou and 59.67% of enterprises are involved in private lending.

The new city of Ordos, an invisible city, is almost universal lending. Since the first half of 2011, there have been many financial cases due to the breakup of capital chain. Private capital is extremely tight. It has been reported that every real estate project in Ordos will find private capital to borrow money. Generally, 40%-50%'s funds come from private capital, and some enterprises and even all the funds of a building plate come from private capital. In some places, even a profit of 4 or 5 points can not attract borrowers to take out the money. The higher the interest rate is, the more people will be licking their blood.

　　 The risk has arrived. The usurious iceberg is at stake and the Pang's hoax is threatened by collapse.

Since the beginning of this year, there have been many cases of escaping from private lending, such as business owners, civil servants and bank personnel in Wenzhou. Since April, Jiangnan leather, Portman, three flag group and Zhejiang Tianshi electronics in Wenzhou have been closed down. The most recent case is Wenzhou, August 1st. Gigantic shoe industry Wang Hexia, the boss of the company, is missing. The guarantee chain of Northern Fujian has collapsed, showing that the usurious iceberg in some areas has been integrated into the bottom of the sun. In August 5th, the Liu Bin case in Jianyang, Fujian, broke out. The case showed pyramid selling pyramid scheme usury financing. chain It links private funds with numerous Guarantee Corporation into a financial chain. It is reported that the loss of Guarantee Corporation in Jianyang alone exceeded 1 billion, and more than 10 Guarantee Corporation bosses fled.

The current usury market generally has two kinds of situations: first, the short term cash position transfer with less risk, and many enterprises continue to get bank credit through several days' loan shark loan. This is a safer part, but the number of enterprises that can get bank loans is less and less. Two is the riskier usury long term financing, the lending enterprise holds the last hope that the monetary and fiscal policy will tend to be loose, or the government will relax the real estate regulation and control, so that when the premium of the real estate can repay the usury interest rate. Obviously, this is an extremely unreliable gambler mentality and lacks foresight for China's future economy.

Ridiculously, some people withdraw funds from the real estate market and turn them into real estate finance, which is regarded as a symbol of the healthy development of real estate. When real estate investment has become a high-risk industry, the high yield of real estate finance is bound to be a burden. {page_break}

　 The prevalence of usury is a symbol of the deterioration of China's real economy and financial structure.

Any rational person can easily come to the conclusion that no traditional manufacturing industry can support more than 30% interest rates, not to mention one hundred percent of the annual interest rate, even if drug trafficking can not be done. Some entities or real estate enterprises do not hesitate to drink poison to quench their thirst. The reason is that they are rushed to the doctor. These enterprises do not know nothing about common sense, but are carrying out a big gamble. In the period of economic expansion, investment has become a project because of the fragmentation of capital chain. Some business owners are unwilling to seize the money and get through the capital chain through usury. When I went to a county town in the east of Zhejiang, I saw that the enterprises were struggling, and some of the local young people who were engaged in lending were spending money in the guesthouse.

The prevalence of usury shows that the capital chain has been severed, and there has been physical investment in the period of rapid growth. It has been unable to get financial support. The prevalence of usury also shows that social capital does not want to enter the real investment field under the inflation background, and turn to earn profits through the way of "playing the money". The usury is so prevalent that it shows that the current management system is in a great imbalance. The concerned parties only pay attention to the capital adequacy ratio of the formal financial institutions, which is very close to the private financial volcanoes in the near future.

On the one hand, the usury Carnival falls into the collective craziness. On the other hand, the normal private finance is deliberately neglected, and the private capital is not going back under discrimination.

Zhang Huaqiao, a former Investment Bank economist and current chairman of Guangzhou Wan Sui small loan company, has recently been committed to the name of private finance and the name of usury. He believes that the government discriminates against small loan companies, and the official credit unions are inefficient and bureaucratic enough to solve the problem of private financing. The solution is "multiple small loan companies, so that small loan companies are more leveraged, so that anyone who wants to come in can let us borrow money so that we have the real ability to support micro enterprises and agriculture, rural areas and farmers".

Considering that more than 50% of China's wealth generating places are engaged in usury, the risk can not be ignored. China's usury is a terrible barrier to financial stability.

　　 Plugging is better than sparse.

China's private finance has never disappeared because of the pursuit of interception. On the contrary, it has grown unsteadily in barbaric growth. At present, the large financial institutions ensure that the "three rural" and small businesses' reasonable capital needs are fundamentally inconsistent. To make good use of private finance, we must first incorporate private finance into the regulatory system. The regulatory body must take the responsibility of supervision, then allow the development of private financial institutions, release the upper and lower limit of interest rates, and make small financial institutions gain a reasonable profit.

Huang Bin, chairman of Fujian Quanzhou agricultural and commercial bank, told the author that only by letting go can we control the mess of usury. As long as it is included in management, it can be named for private finance. Even if we use Wu Ying blood sacrifice, China's private financial barrier lake can only get higher and higher. In order to cope with the policy risk, the interest rate demanded will also be higher and higher. This is a paradox.

Private finance is booming, while small and medium-sized enterprises are booming. Once the civil financial collapse, SMEs will encounter a catastrophe. We have seen signs of danger.