The Global Central Bank'S Annual Meeting Will Unveil &Nbsp Tomorrow; The New Economic Stimulus Plan Is Expected To Rise.

The annual annual meeting of the global central bank is to be held in Jackson house, Wyoming.

The global financial markets are looking at the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Bernanke, who will deliver a speech on economic and monetary policy at the conference.

The market tried to find out from its speech the truth of the "extra loose tools" mentioned by the Federal Open Market Operation Committee (FOMC) in August 9th.

Will history

It was at the annual meeting in 2010 that Bernanke made a clear statement for the first time on launching the second round of quantitative easing (QE2).

The current economic situation in the United States is quite similar to that of the same period last year: slow economic growth, high unemployment, and inflation still tolerable, and the stock market suddenly fell sharply after a big increase.

Because of this, this year's global central bank annual meeting will be given much attention.

Market analysts generally expect that Bernanke's speech not only focuses on the analysis of the short-term economic outlook of the US, but also covers the "extensive discussion" which has been widely discussed by the Federal Open Market Operation Committee in August 9th.

As early as the release of the minutes of the Fed meeting, analysts believe that the following few types of tools remain in the Fed's Toolbox: further intensify wording, reduce excess reserve interest rates or change the structure of the Federal Reserve's portfolio, set inflation targets, and finally start the third round of quantitative easing.

However, there is still a lot of uncertainty about whether history will repeat itself.

On the one hand, the two rounds of quantitative easing have little effect on stimulating economic growth and high global inflation. The foundation of the third round of quantitative easing is not solid enough. On the other hand, when the United States is faced with a general election, political pressure on all sides also forces the Federal Reserve to think twice about policy choices.

Rick Perry, the governor of Texas and campaigning for the Republican presidential nominee, has warned that if the Federal Reserve starts reprinting the banknote in the next 15 months, Bernanke will be seen as treason.

The decision to extend the time limit for ultra-low interest rates has also been opposed by the Federal Open Market Committee. Once the Federal Reserve has taken radical measures, it will trigger more intense opposition.

Market participants dispute QE3

except

Bill Gross, CO chief investment officer of the US Pacific Investment and management company, pointed out that the Fed may hint at August to launch a plan to provide additional monetary stimulus measures, the so-called third round of quantitative easing, to limit interest rates.

Goldman Sachs, chief economist of the Goldman Sachs Group, believes that the guidance of the Federal Reserve in the early August on the economic outlook is a mild surprise. It is believed that if the economy continues to deteriorate, the Federal Reserve is ready to implement QE3.

In the opposition camp, Goldman Sachs Group Goldman Sachs Asset Management Co chairman Jim ONeil has made clear that Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke will not announce the third round of quantitative easing at the annual meeting of the global central bank.

Bernanke has sent a clear signal to the market that more stimulus measures will be needed as long as the economy needs, but there are no signs of a two recession. Nor does the decline in the stock market represent the beginning of the bear market.

The US Federal Reserve announced in August 9th that maintaining an ultra-low interest rate environment at least until 2013 is a very favorable signal.

In addition to the QE3 problem, Bernanke's statement on the US economic situation should not be much different from previous statements, that is, the economic growth rate is far lower than the Fed's expectations, the employment market is deteriorating, residents' consumption intention is weak, and the real estate industry is still weak.

The pessimism of the market outlook on the economic outlook is evident from the downward trend in the yield of US Treasury bonds: in the first half of August, the yield of two-year and ten year treasury bonds fell to a historical low.

Because the bond market is closely related to the economic outlook, the reflection of "historical lows" has gone beyond the "slowdown" of the US economic level to a certain extent.

Bill Gross, the US "bond king", attributed the fall in the yield of treasury bonds to the substantive judgement of the probability of an increase in the US economic recession.

The new stimulus plan is expected to rise, and financial markets are not responding.

As investors expect the Federal Reserve to launch a new economic stimulus plan, the three major indexes of New York stock market rose sharply on the 23 th.

On the 24 day, the upward trend of international gold prices showed signs of callbacks, and the US dollar exchange rate did not change much.

The global central bank meeting market will be held on the 26 th of this month. Many analysts believe that the Federal Reserve will introduce a similar second round of quantitative policy of national debt purchase plan.

Nomura reported that it believed the Fed would introduce new and different quantitative easing policies.

The more turbulent economic outlook further delayed the normalization of policy, and it is expected that the Fed will not raise the policy interest rate until the four quarter of 2013.

Goldman Sachs also released a report on Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke's speech at the 26 annual meeting of the Fed.

Goldman Sachs expects Bernanke's speech to include three main points: discuss the Fed's gloomy outlook for economic growth, defend the past policy actions of the Federal Reserve and list the options for easing the policy.

Goldman Sachs reported: "we think there are several reasons that Federal Reserve officials may be inclined to change their components before further expanding the scale of assets and liabilities, which is an important part of the speech."

23, U.S. stocks rose sharply, and the Dow rose 2.97%.

S & P index rose 3.43%.

The NASDAQ index rose 4.29%.

After the opening of the 24 day, the three major indexes showed a slight upward trend.

At 21:20 on the 24 th of Beijing time, the New York Mercantile Exchange's October light crude oil futures price rose 0.14%, to 85.56 dollars per barrel; international gold price fell 1.26% to 1837.9 dollars per ounce; the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 73.79.