CPI Turning Point Looms &Nbsp; Tax Reform Lights Up.

July

In the second half of the year, CPI will have stable resources.

Despite the latest figures from the Ministry of Commerce, pork prices continue to rise, and industry insiders predict that pork prices will continue to rise in the short term.

However, for the August CPI index, industry experts generally believe that no new heights will be achieved, and the year-on-year growth rate is expected to fall to around 6.2%.

Moreover, the possibility of a steady increase in CPI in the second half of this year is very likely.

Judging from the trend of CPI, experts say that the decline of CPI is an opportunity for resource tax reform. We should seize the opportunity to straighten out the price of resources as soon as possible.

CPI is stable in the second half of the year.

Since the beginning of this year, the CPI index has been rising all the way. In July, CPI rose 6.5%, a 37 month high.

According to the analysis of the industry, food prices play a very important role, especially pork prices.

According to the Ministry of Commerce monitoring data, pork prices continue to rise, researchers will also maintain short-term gains.

Nevertheless, many institutions are optimistic about the August CPI.

It gives a forecast of 6.2% year-on-year increase.

Societe Generale Bank (601166) chief economist Lu commissar in the latest research report even predicted that it will fall to 6.1%.

Lu commissar said that in August, CPI was expected to see the expected lower than normal level in the first few months, resulting in a year-on-year reading drop to 6.1%.

This means that unless a small probability event hits the CPI CPI in September, the peak of the year will probably become July.

He expects that the overall CPI level in 2011 will fall from 5% to 5 6%.

The industry also generally believes that the second half of CPI

The recent development and Reform Commission's position has also strengthened this judgement.

Zhang Ping, director of the national development and Reform Commission, said recently that eight key tasks will be well dealt with in the second half of this year, of which stabilizing prices is still the top priority.

We must not hesitate to strengthen price management and promote a basically stable overall price level.

According to Zhang Ping, measures to stabilize prices in the second half of the year include: strengthening the regulation of important commodity markets and production, pportation and marketing, organizing the acquisition of major grain varieties and edible vegetable oils, enriching the shortage of species reserves, increasing market input in a timely manner, tightening up policies and regulations for tax and fee collection to promote the development of the logistics industry, further standardizing and reducing unreasonable charges in circulation, strengthening market price supervision, and investigating illegal acts of malicious speculation, colluding prices, raising prices and abusing the dominant position of the market, and strengthening public opinion guidance and stabilizing social expectations.

Resource price formation mechanism pushed up CPI

In addition to the driving force of food prices, from the data analysis, the effect of rising industrial consumer prices on the promotion of CPI can not be ignored.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, the producer price (PPI) of industrial producers in the whole country increased by 7.5% in July compared with that of last month. The purchasing price of industrial producers rose by 11% over the same period last year, rising by 0.1%.

Researchers say that CPI is the final product price, which is affected by the price of intermediate inputs.

The price of intermediate inputs is high, especially for energy products, resource products and agricultural products (000061). The price increase is pushing up CPI.

In particular, the rise of oil prices to the downstream lead to higher prices of related goods and services, which is the main feature of the CPI rise this year.

The contribution rate of resources and energy to the rise of CPI index should not be overlooked. This is why, despite repeated government initiatives to promote resource tax reform, it can always be the reason why "only staircase is heard and no one is coming down".

However, experts pointed out that the current price index remains high, but also related to the formation mechanism of resource prices.

The mechanism of resource price formation is the basis for ensuring the reasonable price of resources. The abnormal price formation mechanism can not form reasonable prices, which will inevitably lead to unreasonable use of resources.

At present, there are many problems in the mechanism of resource price formation in China. The low price of resources can not reflect the market demand and scarcity.

Because China's resource price formation is not determined by market supply and demand, it is the implementation of government price or government guidance price.

Refined oil is one example, crude oil can not fully integrate with the market so that prices can not sensitively reflect changes in supply and demand, high, pushing up CPI.

In this context, the reform of resource tax is particularly important.

Fiscal policy is an effective way for the government to regulate the economy and income distribution.

Fiscal and taxation policies should adjust the profit distribution of enterprises and promote the rational development and utilization of resources.

Through resource tax reform, straighten out the price of resources.

In fact, the resource tax reform was implemented in 2007, but it has been shelved for many reasons.

The industry generally believes that one of the reasons is that the implementation of resource tax reform will exacerbate price inflation and increase inflationary pressure.

Especially since 2011, the continuous rise of CPI has hindered the process of resource tax reform.

However, Guo Xiaolin, deputy director of the general office of the State Administration of Taxation, said that CPI is a direct and superficial factor that can not be pushed forward by the resource tax reform. Unreasonable tax structure and unreasonable resource product pricing mechanism are the fundamental reasons for the stagnation of resource tax reform.

Resource tax reform should be launched by machine

Jia Kang, director of the Fiscal Science Research Institute of the Ministry of finance, has always believed that the price index will be callback in the second half of the year, but this is a relatively short process.

The fiscal policy will definitely pform in the next year and next year. After the fall of CPI, the relevant parties must seize the opportunity of resource tax reform and straighten out the price of resources.

At the beginning of June, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued the "Regulations on the reform of the natural gas resources tax in Xinjiang". It is clear that the tax on crude oil and natural gas resources in Xinjiang will be assessed at ad valorem, with a tax rate of 5%.

Experts pointed out that Xinjiang pilot resource tax ad valorem, marking China's resource tax reform made significant progress, if the progress is smooth, resource tax reform is expected to spread throughout the country.

Liu Shangxi, deputy director of the Financial Science Research Institute of the Ministry of finance, believes that the resource tax reform can be comprehensively promoted across the country. On the one hand, our country is paying more and more attention to energy conservation and environmental protection, reducing carbon emissions, and pushing forward the reform of resource tax in line with this direction. On the other hand, the current price level is moderate, which is a good time to promote the reform of resource tax.

In early July, Guo Xiaolin, deputy director of the general office of the State Administration of Taxation, said that the pilot scheme for expanding the resource tax reform was reported to the State Council.

The resource tax reform will be changed from the volume assessment to the ad valorem direction. The scope of levy will be extended to other resources products on the basis of oil and natural gas.

On August 26th, at the twenty-second session of the Standing Committee of the eleven National People's Congress, Zhang Ping, director of the national development and Reform Commission, said that new progress has been made in the reform of resource products prices and taxes.

The price adjustment scheme of online and non resident electricity has been promulgated, and the relationship between refined oil prices has been further straightened out.

To promote the marketization of aviation kerosene prices, the factory price will be gradually priced in the market.

The meeting pointed out that China will continue to deepen the reform of the prices of resource products, straighten out the price relations of resources such as coal, electricity, oil, gas, water and mineral resources, accelerate the implementation of the ladder price of residential electricity, improve the peak and valley TOU price, increase the differential tariff and punitive electricity price according to the procedures, and form a price mechanism that objectively reflects the scarcity of resources and the relationship between supply and demand.

The conference called for a sound tax policy.

We should actively promote the reform of resource tax and fee, and change the tax on crude oil, natural gas and coal resources from the quantity collection to the ad valorem levy and appropriately raise the level of tax burden.

From the government's series of initiatives, resource tax reform is steadily advancing.