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    Western Central Banks Are Showing A Poor &Nbsp, And Fiscal Stimulus Is Expected To Resume.

    2011/8/30 11:09:00 26

    Western Central Bank Fiscal Stimulus

    In the past global central bank annual meeting, the chairman of the Federal Reserve

    Bernanke

    Although there are still many "policy tools" available to the market, no clear answer is given.

    On the contrary, he implicitly pointed out that the next task of stimulating economic recovery should fall to the White House and Congress.


    As the Central Bank of the central bank and other western central banks are increasingly "poor in technology" to cope with the economic downturn, people are beginning to place more expectations on the government.

    Many officials and academics attending the central bank's annual meeting last weekend said they are pushing ahead with huge cuts.

    deficit

    At the same time, the US and European policy authorities need to consider adopting the necessary short-term fiscal stimulus measures to maintain economic growth.


    Next week, President Obama will announce a comprehensive plan that includes short-term stimulus to the economy. European countries such as Spain and Ireland have announced new measures to promote employment.


    Bernanke kicked the ball to Obama.


    Last Friday, Jackson, Holzer and Bernanke, while explaining the options of monetary policy, paid considerable attention to the discussion of financial issues.


    Bernanke suggested that the role of the authorities has reached the limit in terms of monetary policy.

    finance

    Policy is more critical.

    The Fed has cut interest rates to zero and has bought more than $2 trillion in long-term securities to stimulate economic recovery.


    "Although the issue of fiscal sustainability is urgently needed, fiscal officials can not ignore the fragile phenomenon of the current economic recovery."

    "These two goals are not incompatible with achieving fiscal sustainability and avoiding financial resistance to the current economic recovery," Bernanke said.


    Bernanke believes that solving the problem of long-term unemployment in the United States must be listed as a priority. He also appealed to the US government to support the sluggish real estate market.


    Bernanke's views were supported by officials and scholars from various countries who participated in the annual meeting of Jackson Holzer central bank on that day.

    For example, Lagarde, President of the International Monetary Fund, called for "immediate action" in the political arena.


    Lagarde wrote earlier that the governments of developed countries should pay attention to short-term measures to promote economic growth and employment while paying attention to the medium-term fiscal consolidation plan.


    Hubbard, Dean of Columbia University business school, said Bernanke's speech was a clear signal to the US government, and hoped that the government would not put the burden on the Federal Reserve again, but should do its job well.


    "Bernanke is obviously kicking the ball to Obama."

    Roberts, CEO of Streettalk, a US investment management agency, said that as early as next week, Obama will announce a comprehensive economic stimulus plan. In the view of the market, the next task of stimulating the economy will fall to the top of the government.


    The euro zone will not forget to promote employment.


    On the 26 day, the US White House said Obama was on the phone with Lagarde on the same day.

    The two sides agreed that it is necessary for the United States to take measures to stimulate economic growth and employment in the short term and adopt fiscal consolidation measures in the medium and long term.


    Last weekend, Obama also held talks with German Chancellor Merkel.

    The two leaders have pledged to take action to advance the global economic recovery that is currently facing greater risks.


    Obama is preparing to deliver a speech after the Labor Day holiday September 5th, announcing his plan to stimulate employment, including expanding infrastructure spending projects, offering preferential tax policies to businesses that recruit employees, and reducing salaries tax paid by employers and employees retraining projects.


    And on the other side of the ocean, the European Central Bank is putting pressure on governments to assume greater responsibility for reviving the economy.


    Novoni, member of the European Central Bank's management committee, said at Jackson Hall last weekend that euro zone governments should give more power to the euro zone aid fund.

    Many European Central Bank officials also say that it is the responsibility of the incumbent leaders to solve Europe's sovereign debt and the troubles of the banking industry, not the European Central Bank.


    Some European countries are already taking concrete actions.


    Irish government officials said recently that the state intends to subsidize the employment creation plan by selling proceeds from state-owned assets.

    The Spanish government announced a number of new measures to promote employment last weekend.


    How to deal with China?


    The blame of the outside world on the US and European governments lies mainly in the fact that in the current difficult period, the decision making authorities are lack of political resolve to settle their differences and solve problems.

    In the United States, this is reflected in the stalemate between Congress and the government over the debt ceiling and deficit reduction. In the euro area, political considerations of domestic interests become the biggest obstacle to delaying the strengthening of fiscal integration in the euro area.


    Experts pointed out that in the case of increased economic risk in the US and Europe, or even a recurrence of recession, China and other emerging economies may face an impact.


    If the European and American economies are once again in recession, China may also need to adopt new fiscal stimulus measures.


    Deutsche Bank's forecast shows that there is a possibility of a slight recession of 25% in the Euro American economy, that is, the zero growth of GDP, and 15% of the possibility of a serious recession, that is, GDP will shrink by 3%.

    The bank believes that if Europe and the US are in serious recession, China's exports are expected to decline by 15% and GDP growth rate to 7%, and these forecasts have taken into account the effect of the new round of stimulus.


    Ma Jun, chief economist of Deutsche Bank, believes that if Europe and the United States are to explore the bottom for two times, China will have to take certain stimulus policies.

    But even if the recession in Europe and the United States is as severe as from 2008 to 2009, China's new round of stimulus policies should not and should not exceed half of the previous round.


    Ma Jun believes that if China needs a new round of stimulus, it will no longer be investment infrastructure, but should focus on promoting consumption, while supporting the structural weaknesses of SMEs, housing, services and agriculture.


     
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