The Cotton Industry Is Grim Than The Financial Crisis.

Recently, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences

The "golden period" of textile industry will end.

China's cotton production prosperity index (CCPPI) is an important indicator for forecasting the economic operation of cotton industry.

In the first half of 2011, CCPPI was 344 points, 331 points, 330 points, 330 points, 310 points 300 points in July, and dropped sharply to 276 points in July.

China Cotton Institute predicts that the 2011/2012 CCPPI will be between 250 ~300 points, down 50 points from the previous year, and the national cotton industry economy will be "flat or declining" in terms of high consumption level, the area will be moderately expanded, imports will be flat or falling, and prices will be high and down.

China's cotton industry believes that this year will be a turning point in the end of the "golden period" of the textile industry, which is affected by the global economic recovery imbalance, tightening of domestic regulation, inflation and indigestible cotton prices.

"The whole cotton industry scenario is even more severe and complicated than the financial crisis.

Cotton spinning output of 27 million 380 thousand tons may be a historical vertex or not far from the vertex, the cotton spinning industry's investment and pfer need to be cautious.

China Cotton related people said.

Data show that in the first half of this year, the growth of cotton yarn output and textile export volume dropped sharply.

Cotton yarn production in the first half of this year was 13 million 568 thousand tons, up only 6.2% (789 thousand tons) compared to the same period last year, down 9.6 percentage points, indicating that China's cotton yarn production capacity has entered a new turning point, but the cotton consumption base is very large and the shortage of cotton will not change.

Textile and apparel exports in the first half of this year amounted to US $111 billion 730 million, an increase of 25.7% over the same period last year.

Among them, the price rose by 21.49%; the volume increased by only 3.88%, down 12.5 percentage points.

In the first half of this year, domestic and foreign cotton prices fell sharply.

The CF1109 contract of the Zhengzhou Mercantile Exchange fell from a high of 32645 yuan / ton in January to 22124 yuan / ton in July, a drop of 32.2%.

Internationally, the futures price of the Intercontinental Exchange fell from 152.53 cents / pound in April to 106.91 cents / pound in July, a drop of 29.9% in October.

The rising cost of production, high international oil prices, inflation and urbanization all contributed to the rise in raw cotton prices.

China Cotton Association pointed out that from the perspective of cotton spinning enterprises, high priced cotton is difficult to digest in the short term.

In 2003, high cost cotton could be digested in half a year, because the cotton spinning industry was in a high-speed expansion stage, and at the same time, the import of low priced cotton in 2004 was "

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Cotton prices will continue to decline at home and abroad

The near future,

Reporters noted that in August 17th, China's cotton price index 328 level was 19057 yuan / ton, down 2 yuan; the 229 level was 20538 yuan / ton, fell 28 yuan; 527 level was 16305 yuan / ton, or fell 86 yuan.

According to quote textile enterprises feedback, most of the textile enterprises are still buying and using, and the volume is not high.

As the price of textile products also showed a downward trend, some cotton enterprises suffered serious losses and even were auctioned at low prices by the banks. There were individual businesses unable to return loans and cotton farmers' acquisition funds.

Therefore, the current market situation is grim and chaotic.

China Cotton store recently also analyzed that the current domestic cotton market interwoven, textile operation is weak, short term demand is difficult to warm up, the domestic cotton prices constitute a further downward pressure.

In terms of international cotton prices, the central reserve cotton said

At present, the global economy is in the doldrums, the market has become more risk averse and its demand has become increasingly weak.

Looking ahead, the United States recently released the two quarter GDP, manufacturing and other economic data which are not satisfactory. In August 5th, the standard Pool Co lowered the US sovereign credit rating from the highest level AAA to AA+. The outlook for the rating was negative. It exacerbated the market's concerns about the US economic outlook. With the European sovereign debt crisis spreading to Italy and Spain, commodities continued to face selling risks, and the downward pressure was self-evident.

Chu Chu cotton pointed out that on the basic side, on the one hand, there is no sign of improvement in downstream demand, the United States on July 21st ~28.

The recent market also has some positive factors: first, the new year's collection and storage is on the agenda, which is conducive to establishing confidence in cotton enterprises. At present, the cotton price in most parts of the mainland has been lower than the new year's storage price. The role of collecting and storing policy will gradually appear in the new year. Two, from the beginning of this year, the Ministry of finance has decided to increase the pportation allowance of cotton (cotton yarn) to 500 yuan / ton, and put cotton cloth in the scope of subsidies. The relevant enterprises in the cotton industry will benefit from it, help to improve the enthusiasm of purchasing cotton and drive the cotton market as a whole to turn better; three, at the moment of frequent typhoons, the main cotton producing areas in the country are generally raining, and the growth of cotton is slightly blocked, which will bring certain support to the cotton price in the future. But cotton reserves pointed out at the same time.

Take precautions against the dangers of selling cotton

China Cotton pointed out that since the beginning of this year, under the stimulation of favorable prices, driven by the projects of high-yield creation, improved seed subsidy and light simplified seedling pplant and other projects, cotton production has shown a restorative growth through the promotion of science and technology. Although the Yangtze River Basin has experienced droughts and floods and partial continuous drought, the cotton growth in the early and middle stages has been good, the high yield shelves have basically been set up, and the growth has been relatively balanced, which has laid a good foundation for increasing production and harvest.

By the end of July, the trend of high yield of cotton in the whole country has been enhanced, and it is expected to be a harvest year.

However, there is great uncertainty in the new cotton market due to the imbalance of global economic recovery, the tightening effects of domestic regulation and control, inflation and the difficulty of digestion and consumption in the short term of "high priced cotton".

Therefore, we should take precautions against the problem of "selling cotton difficult" that may happen in the harvest.

China Cotton Association pointed out that after joining the WTO, China's cotton market risks and climate risks are intensifying.

In the past 10 years, there have been 3 abnormal fluctuations: 2003 due to abnormal climate abnormity, the price has risen sharply. The 2008 financial crisis has led to a sharp fall in prices. In 2010, inflation led to soaring prices and then fell sharply.

In response to abnormal fluctuations, the multi-party appeal for the temporary purchase and storage price was introduced in March 2011.

It is pointed out that the temporary purchase and storage price can be regarded as the lowest price and is the main supporting point of the state's macroeconomic regulation and control.

Because there is no support for the lowest price, the state regulation has no focus.

To reduce the impact of domestic and foreign market fluctuations and shocks, only the lowest price can support them.

It is foreseeable that the temporary purchase and storage price will play an active role in the realization of the "Three Guarantees".

The relevant people suggested that the state should increase the reserve and quantity of cotton and increase the capacity of emergency control. The capacity of China's market absorption and delivery should be expanded to 3 million tons.

Judging from the impact of the 2 million 720 thousand crisis of 2 million 720 thousand tons on the market in the year of 2008, the control capacity for the huge market below the limit of 3 million tons is very limited.

Therefore, in view of the actual situation of cotton harvest and market weakness this year, there should be a plan for increasing reserves. It is suggested that relying on the warehouse of cotton textile enterprises to purchase cotton reserves or store cotton reserves is a measure that can be adopted.

In August 4th, the national development and Reform Commission and other relevant departments held a special meeting to study the implementation of the preparatory work for the 2011 cotton temporary purchase and storage plan, and called for the conscientious implementation of the spirit of the 2011 cotton temporary purchase and storage plan, stabilizing market expectations, protecting the interests of cotton farmers, and making preparations for the 2011 cotton annual open storage.

It is reported that

Insiders pointed out that since March this year, cotton prices have slipped all the way, and the three grade cotton has dropped from 30 thousand yuan per ton to less than 20 thousand yuan per ton. Starting the purchase and storage of cotton country will improve the market mentality, which will form a strong support for the continuous decline of cotton prices.