Chemical Fiber Industry: Cotton Prices Rise In The Four Quarter, Short And Short &Nbsp; Sticky Short Profit Recovery

First half year Textile and clothing The demand will increase sharply and will be affected in the future. RMB The negative impact of appreciation.

Affected by the expected appreciation of the renminbi and the recovery of demand in Europe and the United States, the overseas market accelerated the picking up of textiles and clothing in the three quarter of 10 years, and exports increased by 23% in the same month in July. However, after the appreciation of RMB has become a reality, market winds will change, and textile and clothing exports will decline, leading to a decline in demand for chemical fiber.

Two, chemical fiber industry overall overcapacity, eliminated Backward production capacity Good is limited.

From 04 years, in addition to 06 years, the annual production capacity of new chemical fiber in China is above 2 million 500 thousand tons, and the new output in 08 years can reach 2 million 810 thousand tons. From the upstream and downstream solid investment growth rate comparison, as of 10 August, the chemical fiber industry solid investment cumulative growth of 50%, the textile industry solid investment cumulative growth of 23%, the difference between the growth rate is 27%, the future demand growth is not as fast as the capacity growth; while in the 10 year, eliminating backward production capacity accounts for only 2% of the total output, the real contribution is limited, and the excess pressure of ordinary chemical fiber products overcapacity.

Three, the rise in raw material prices has led to a decline in profitability of some chemical fiber enterprises.

Affected by the depreciation of the US dollar, the recent international crude oil price has increased to 80 US dollars / barrel, and analysts expect to return to US $100 next year. Recently, domestic calcium carbide and cotton prices have risen rapidly, and the price difference of some chemical fiber products has narrowed and profitability has declined.

Four, cotton has become the main focus of the four quarter's investment in chemical fiber industry.

Due to the decline of cotton planting area and the increase of demand, cotton supply is in short supply in the near future, and the trend will remain at least for the next season. Affected by this impact, domestic and foreign cotton prices have risen sharply, reaching a record high: in October 14th, NYMEX cotton continued to rise to a record high of 1.18 US dollars, and the rebound rate has been 50% since June. The domestic price of zhengmian 1011 has risen to 26435, or 59%.

As a substitute for cotton, the price of polyester staple and viscose staple fiber has increased rapidly with cotton prices in recent years. As of October 15th, polyester short price rose to 12900 yuan / ton, an increase of 31% over the previous month. Viscose staple fiber rose to 22000 yuan / ton, an increase of 20%. The price of polyester PTA and MEG increased by 22% and 16% in the month, but there is still nearly 50% space in the 07 year history. The main raw material short staple price of viscose increased by 26.5%, reaching 9500 yuan / ton, affecting the price of viscose, and viscose income in cotton prices rose relatively small. However, the correlation between polyvinyl alcohol and spandex industry is low, and the pressure of overcapacity in the industry is bigger.