New Loans Rose To 548 Billion 500 Million Yuan In August.

The amount of new loans is "not too small".

11, Reuters quoted Li Zhiqiang, chief economist of Minsheng Bank's financial market, as saying that about 500000000000 of the new credit is not much, but if the growth rate of M1 and M2 is reduced, new credit is not too small.

According to the comprehensive central bank data, there is no optimistic expectation that monetary policy will relax or turn.

It is expected that in the coming months, such a tight situation will still be maintained.

Central bank data show that at the end of 8, the balance of foreign currency loans was 55 trillion and 690 billion yuan, an increase of 16.5% over the same period last year.

The balance of RMB loans was 52 trillion and 440 billion yuan, an increase of 16.4% over the same period last year, 0.2 and 2.2 percentage points lower than the end of last month and the same period last year.

Wan Xiaoxi, managing director of the first venture securities asset management headquarters, believes that the amount of new loans in August should exceed the market expectations. The original number is expected to be more than 300 billion -4000 billion, and the increment is more than that in July.

Xinhua overseas finance 11 quoted CIMB Research economist Song Seng Wun, said that although the new loan figures are higher than expected, but this does not mean that the central bank relaxed the tightening monetary policy stance, if the central bank to relax monetary policy too quickly, it may lead to speculative assets in the field of investment once again heating up.

Song added that a monthly loan of 500 billion -5500 billion yuan is in line with the Chinese government's need to keep the economy growing at the current rate.

Customs statistics show that in August, China imported $155 billion 560 million, an increase of 30.2% over the same period last year, and the monthly import scale refreshed a record of 152 billion 260 million US dollars in March this year.

Xinhua Overseas Finance said this indicates that China's demand remains strong.

money supply

According to central bank data, the growth rate of broad money and narrow money supply continued to slow down at the end of 8.

The 11 daily report of Xinhua Overseas Finance said that the growth of money supply in China slowed down in August, indicating that the monetary tightening policy implemented since the beginning of this year has continued to bear fruit.

As inflation remains at a high level in the past three years and domestic consumption continues to be strong, relevant departments will still take price control as a top priority. It is expected that measures will not be taken in the near future to make monetary policy environment too loose.

But the aforementioned Xinhua overseas financial report also stressed that China is unlikely to continue tightening monetary policy under the current slowdown in domestic economic growth and the uncertainty of the global economic outlook.

Reuters's 11 day report also quoted Zhu Jianfang, chief economist of CITIC Securities, as saying that high inflation will continue, but the trend is down.

Taking into account the external situation is not optimistic, the central bank should tighten policy should be cautious, the possibility of raising interest rates within the year is smaller.

Wang Haoyu, deputy director of the first pioneering Securities Research Institute, thinks that from the current capital interest rate, the capital side is not too tight.

From margin reserve to directional central bank votes, it shows that policy tightening is not necessarily bottoming out. The central bank will continue to control credit and will not condone the excessive easing of market funds.

However, the central bank will not want the funds to break up. The inflation level in September will still be relatively high. The central bank has been exploring a point, which is more advantageous to credit control.

Data released on the 9 National Statistics show that in August, the national consumer price level (CPI) increased by 6.2% over the same period last year.

Although it is lower than 6.5% in July, it is still at its highest level in the past three years.

Real estate credit continues to be limited.

Ping An Securities fixed income research director Shi Lei said that in August M2, new loans and other data are basically in line with expectations.

M1 is relatively low, indicating that economic activity has declined and economic growth is still at a low ebb.

In August, M2 growth rate was low, and September is expected to rebound.

Gao Yongbiao, a macroeconomic analyst at Guo Hai securities, also believes that the new loan scale of about 500000000000 Yuan in August is relatively normal, and that the M2 growth rate is too low is mainly related to the higher base in the same period last year.

In general, the data are in line with expectations, and in the light of the recently released economic data and CPI, future policies will not be relaxed or hard to tighten again.

It is unlikely that the reserve will be raised, but there are still differences in the interest rate hikes.

CIMB Research economist Song Seng Wun also has similar views. He believes that at present, the central bank will maintain the existing policy unchanged, will ensure the supply of productive demand, and continue to limit the credit for non productive areas, such as real estate.

In addition, the central bank data also showed that RMB pactions in the interbank market totaled 18 trillion and 760 billion yuan in August, with an average daily turnover of 815 billion 800 million yuan, with an average turnover of 14.3% over the same period.

In August, the weighted average interest rate of interbank market interbank lending was 3.30%, 1.14 percentage points lower than that of last month, and the weighted average interest rate for repurchase of pledged bonds was 3.38%, 1.23 percentage points lower than that of last month.