New Cotton Purchase And Storage Is Not Limited To Prevent Speculation Again.

The national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on 7 th, deciding to start the 2011 year from September 8th.

Insiders pointed out that the cotton market is hard to catch up with the craze of buying and hoarding last year, due to the high cotton output this year, the tight cotton capital and policy regulation.

But because cotton is increasingly becoming a financial investment product, in the new year, the possibility of rising prices of cotton will not be ruled out by capital speculation.

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Cotton prices plummeted reserve policy bottom

With the temporary purchase and storage of cotton started, this year's "plummeted" cotton price has found a strong bottom support.

According to the latest cotton monthly report released in August by the China Cotton Association, at the end of the year, cotton prices both dropped sharply at home and abroad due to the lack of confidence in the fundamentals of supply and demand and the lack of confidence in the market.

New York futures lowest price fell below 100 cents / pound, the highest point has dropped by more than half.

Domestic cotton prices in August dropped faster and larger, down nearly 4000 yuan / ton in the same month, and fell to 20 thousand yuan / ton at the end of the month.

In fact, 2010/2011 cotton year, domestic

In order to stabilize market expectations, protect the interests of cotton farmers and ensure market supply, the eight ministries and commissions such as the national development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "2011 cotton temporary purchase and storage plan" in March this year, and decided to implement the temporary cotton purchase and storage system from the 2011 cotton year (September 1, 2011 to August 31, 2012), and the standard grade lint storage and storage price was 19800 yuan / ton.

When the price of the cotton market is monitored for five consecutive working days, which is lower than the temporary storage price, the central reserve cotton company will issue a notice in advance to start the plan for storing and storing the goods.

As of September 7th, the cotton price in the domestic market has been below 19800 yuan / ton for five consecutive working days since the beginning of the cotton market in 2011.

The head of the central storage cotton company told the "economic reference daily" that before the beginning of the new cotton purchase and storage work, the market effect of the purchase and storage plan had gradually begun to show. In mid August, market confidence began to improve, textile enterprises' enthusiasm for purchasing cotton increased, and the spot market decline slowed down.

In August 31st, the B index of cotton prices on behalf of the domestic spot price level was 19274 yuan / ton, up by 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of August.

Feng Mengxiao, chief information officer of the China cotton storage information center, told the economic reference daily that according to the current policy of the state, the national storage and storage measures will continue until March 31, 2012, which has become the factor of supporting cotton prices in the first half of 2011.

However, under the background of economic cooling at home and abroad and the good growth of global cotton, there is little possibility that cotton prices will rise substantially in the new year.

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Cotton speculation is hard to see in the new year

"In recent years, the reasons for soaring and collapsing cotton prices are more complicated. Cotton is not only a textile raw material that people generally understand, but rather an investment product that is financial, futures or monetization."

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Li Liheng, a cotton analyst at business and textile branch, said that once the purchase and storage began in September this year, cotton prices will be relatively stable. This year, the output of cotton will be relatively high and the stock will be gone.

The head of China cotton reserve expects that there will not be any concentrated performance this year, such as speculation, rush to buy, and reluctant sale of cotton farmers, but there may be wait-and-see, reluctant sale and sluggish income in the early stage of purchase.

Affected by rising prices of grain and other agricultural products and soaring costs of cotton production, the higher the price of the purchase last year, the higher the cotton growers' expectations for the purchase price. The cotton processing enterprises suffered a big loss last year, and the purchasing funds were not enough.

The possibility of cotton farmers' reluctant sale and business wait-and-see in the early stage will be alleviated with the full development of the collection and storage work.

It is understood that from 2009 to 2010, whether acquisition, processing or trade links are "not bad money", to provide sufficient ammunition for speculation cotton.

With the tightening of liquidity this year and the strengthening of supervision of credit funds by banks, the cotton collecting funds of enterprises are no longer as ample as before.

The head of the China agriculture development bank told reporters that enterprises could borrow money from several banks last year, and then began to rush to buy agricultural products.

After the credit tightening this year, the supply of commercial banks has decreased, which will play a very good role in the stability and rational acquisition of agricultural products market.

Judging from the fundamentals of supply and demand, there are still some uncertainties in cotton production this year, which may become a subject of market speculation.

China Cotton Association predicts that in 2011, cotton planting area will be 80 million 180 thousand mu, compared with that of the previous year, an increase of 4.1% over the previous year.

The output of cotton will reach 7 million 480 thousand tons, up 12.3% from the previous year.

However, since August, there has been continuous rain and light weather in some cotton areas, which may have an impact on the final output.

The deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, the deputy director of the rural economic department, interviewed by the economic reference daily, said that the key factor leading to speculation is lack of supply and demand, while cotton belongs to a relatively short supply variety, so there is room for speculation.

Although there is a policy of collecting and storing, it is difficult to control the flow of funds, so long as there is profit space, the funds will go into "stir up".

As the main body responsible for the implementation of the national cotton temporary purchase and storage plan, the central storage cotton company launched the "cotton purchase and storage policy and business process training" in late August, and set up a cotton market analysis and tracking mechanism, increasing the strength of market research and timely releasing relevant information, so as to remind cotton farmers and cotton enterprises to pay attention to the market operation risks caused by various hype, rush to buy and sell 2011.

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The textile industry will be better.

"Cotton prices last year's ups and downs, let cotton spinning enterprises on pins and needles, some enterprises at high prices when stocking cotton spot, now has become a huge burden of losses.

After countless speculators won the game, many small businesses are having a hard time.

Li Liheng told the economic reference Daily reporter.

According to the report of the China Cotton Association, the price of cotton yarn has continued to drop, driven by the drop in cotton prices. 32 cotton yarn has dropped to 29000 yuan / ton, and the total price has dropped 2000 yuan / ton in the whole month.

With the continuous increase of pressure in the textile industry, the phenomenon of small and medium-sized enterprises shutting down has increased. Large enterprises have mostly maintained production, and the output of textile products has come down.

Insiders told reporters that textile enterprises are not afraid of high cotton prices, and are afraid that cotton prices will be unstable.

As long as cotton prices stabilize, the textile industry will recover.

Li Liheng believes that when prices are stable, cotton sales will always maintain a stable state. Sellers and buyers can buy and sell in time according to their inventory structure, capital status and other related conditions, and the market circulation is relatively smooth.

At the same time, the price is stable, so that spinning enterprises can better use at any time, buy at any time, not confused to analyze various factors.

Although cotton prices are stabilizing gradually, demand is still weak, which still restricts the prosperity of the textile industry.

The responsible person in charge of cotton reserves said that affected by factors such as slow global economic recovery, RMB appreciation, tight credit funds and rising cost, textile production and export growth slowed down, and demand for cotton would not increase significantly. According to international cotton supply and demand, the world's main cotton producing countries all increased production, and the annual output was greater than about 1 million 800 thousand tons.

Li Liheng said that textile enterprises in the near future continue to increase their digestion of raw materials and reduce the ratio of cotton to cotton.

With the increase in the intensity of the sale, as of the end of July, the inventory of cotton, yarn and grey fabric in the textile enterprises decreased significantly, but still higher than the same period last year.

Although there is a demand for a small amount of replenishment, the textile enterprises generally reflect that the overall business situation is not ideal. In the environment of global consumption weakness, consumption is still not optimistic.

Feng Mengxiao believes that the competition between domestic and foreign spinning enterprises can not be ignored in view of India, Pakistan and other countries as cotton and spinning producing countries.

If domestic cotton prices are significantly higher than those of Asian countries, cotton spinning enterprises in China will face some pressure.