Macro Face Good To Be Determined PTA High Instability

Thursday PTA main contract 1201 slightly opened after the oscillation downward, the positions reduced by 25048 hands, the daily turnover reduced by 266334 hands. The average line system is still showing a long arrangement, and the 20 day average line support is obvious. The author believes that although the fundamentals of PTA are good, systemic risks remain, and the high oscillation pattern will remain high in the near future.

　 The macro level is good enough to be determined, and systemic risks remain.

The biggest uncertainty in the market is still from the eurozone, of which Greece's debt problem is the focus of the market. On the afternoon of 14 th, Moodie, an international rating agency, announced that, due to the large exposure of Greek Societe Generale to Societe Generale, its credit rating was reduced from Aa2 to Aa3, and the Agricultural Bank of France was also dragged down by Greek bonds. The rating was downgraded from Aa1 to Aa2, and the Bank of Paris in France remained unchanged. On the other hand, US President Obama announced the launch of the employment stimulus package with a total scale of $447 billion. The market's concerns about the US job market downturn were eased, but the implementation of the specific plan still needs to be approved by Congress.

Domestic aspects, announced last week in August CPI The data are better than expected, and the market expects monetary policy to gradually become more relaxed. But for the whole year's economic data, the inflation situation is still not optimistic. monetary policy Relaxation needs to wait until November and beyond. In a comprehensive view, the macro level is urgent, the profit is good to be determined, and the systemic risk remains.

　 PX supply is tight in advance, reflecting limited upstream space.

It is reported that Fu Jia Da Hua has stopped in September 8th, and it will take about a year to stop from work and resume work. During this period, the capacity of the unit can be regarded as a loss of 700 thousand tons. Between 9 and October, 30% of the PX capacity in Asia will be stopped. Market expectations for tight supply of PX have been advanced in price.

Judging from the processing profit of naphtha - MX - PX, the PX processing profit is very rich at present, the processing profit of MX is about 350 USD / ton, and the MX PX processing profit is about 250 USD / ton, which is higher than the normal processing profit.

　　 Downstream demand is strong. PTA spot Prices continue to rise

From the current PX PTA processing profit, although the huge profits of the thousand yuan per ton over the peak period have dropped sharply, the demand for the downstream market is booming, and the spot price is accelerating. According to the spot price of PX, the theoretical processing profit per ton still has more than 600 yuan, excluding the failure brought by the failure, and PTA manufacturers have higher driving force.

The demand for textiles is at its peak, and polyester stocks remain low for a long time, so the polyester plant has a relatively high operating rate, and the demand for PTA is very strong. From the current situation of the whole PTA industry, it runs well. Although the price of PX continues to be high, the profits of all links remain basically within the normal range. {page_break}

Although the spot price of PTA has been rising all the way, the price of PTA futures has remained oscillating for nearly a week. On the one hand, the interest in capital participation has been reduced. On the other hand, it also reflects the market's doubts about whether the terminal demand can be expected on schedule. As mentioned above, the major developed economies, such as Europe and the United States, are now facing the situation of weak economic growth. Coupled with the difficulties faced by China's textile industry itself, the acceptance of high priced raw materials is limited. If the terminal consumption is not as good as expected, PTA prices are likely to descend rapidly from the current high level.

On the whole, it is expected that the PTA fundamentals will continue to run well before the National Day holiday. Investors should pay close attention to the macroeconomic trend when they are cautious in their early stages.