The Price Of Capital Can Hardly Be Described As Top &Nbsp; October Will Be A Ridge.

"October will be a ridge. It will depend on the evolution of the peripheral market. The domestic (monetary policy) will not be any more tight."

The respondents told reporters this.

In fact, from the perspective of market liquidity in the coming months, the ups and downs will be difficult to reproduce, and the disturbance of seasonal factors will be basically in the same place.

According to the research of market participants, the capital market of interbank market and

Yesterday,

However, judging from the dominant factors such as new foreign exchange holdings, fiscal deposits and open market expiration in the coming months, the capital side will seek a balance in the "confrontation" of these forces.

That is to say, as long as the central bank.

Statistics show that in the first month of each quarter, the state owned enterprises must pay centrally to the central finance, such as the tax paid by enterprises, etc., which shows that the fiscal balance of the central bank's credit receipts and payments will increase and the amount of funds in the banking system will decrease correspondingly.

This year, the new increments in January, April and July were 356 billion 500 million, 409 billion 800 million and 459 billion 200 million yuan, respectively.

After consulting the information, the reporters found that the situation was similar last year and the year before last.

Meanwhile, as the situation in the peripheral economies has deteriorated, it is widely expected that new foreign exchange holdings will reach a new high of 400 billion yuan and 500 billion yuan in 8 and September this year.

Statistics show that the highest level this year is 501 billion 648 million yuan in January.

In the open market, the central bank frequently used 7 days and other ultra short term repo in recent weeks, just to smooth the liquidity of each month, and did not show any obvious tightening intention.

That is to say, the maturity of subsequent months will increase gradually.

Shi Lei, deputy general manager of Ping An Securities fixed income department, said that China's monetary policy is more embodied in quantitative regulation. In addition to the liquidity expectations released by the new reserve policy at the end of August, the above financial deposits and new foreign exchange holdings will also form a certain hedge. In the future, the interbank market funds will not be very tight, but when to meet the top is not easy to say.

"The repo rate will rise at the end of September, but mainly due to seasonality and cash reserve effect.

General M0 (cash in circulation) will increase by tens of billions to 100 billion yuan, and then some of them will return to the bank.

Shi Lei said.

Chen Feng, a fixed income Department of Jinyuan securities, told reporters that capital prices should be paid attention to two points. First, the external shock is the premise. First, the consumer price index (CPI) has dropped to a certain extent. At present, both of them are uncertain.

After 2008, the massive easing policy in China should not appear in recent years.

"The average 7 day repo rate in the coming months is expected to be around 4%, which is difficult to maintain under 3%."

Chen Feng said.