Industry Interpretation: Capital Is Unwilling To Enter &Nbsp; Market Is Hard To See.

Interview guests:

Finance fund deep foundation fund manager Wang Jianqiang

Jinyuan securities wealth management headquarters chief

Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS Securities in China

August

Wang Tao: inflation is high, policy is not loose.

In August, CPI's year-on-year growth rate dropped from 6.5% in July to 6.2%. We believe that from the year-on-year data, the high inflation point has appeared in July this year.

In August, pork prices rose by only 1.3% in the month to month ratio, down from 7.7% in July and 11% in June. Pork prices will remain the main driving force for CPI in the coming months.

In September, because there are some holiday factors, and some other products are still rising, so we judge that CPI in September may be almost the same as August.

With the implementation of the "pig cycle", we expect pork prices to decline in late 2011 and early 2012. CPI is expected to fall sharply in the four quarter, and may reach more than four percent by the end of the year.

Although inflation is at its peak, we believe that policy will not be loosened in the short term, because CPI is still above 6% and may be affected by natural disasters and international commodity prices in the future.

At the same time, China's economic activities, whether industrial production, real estate construction or export, are relatively strong. Therefore, from the economic situation, we do not support the immediate loosening of monetary policy. We believe that the government will make further decisions until the end of the year.

A shares have been battered by the recent turmoil in the external market.

We believe that the European debt crisis will continue to deteriorate in the future.

Recently, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that China will continue to invest in the European market. I think this is a strategic investment. On the other hand, from the perspective of investment, it is also a more suitable opportunity.

Some foreign media said that China might expand the purchase of European debt. I think it is not realistic to hope that China will buy more European debt to save the European debt crisis.

If the European debt crisis continues to deteriorate, the blow to China's exports may be relatively large, and has not yet been reflected.

China has relatively strong domestic demand, and investment and heavy industry are also good.

At present, the risk of the external market is also a risk for the A share market, but the impact may be a little smaller.

Wang Jianqiang: capital is reluctant to enter the market.

Although the CPI growth rate fell in August, it did not play a significant role in boosting the A shares, while the external market had an impact on A shares and did not rule out the possibility of further downgrade.

Even if the stock index has fallen to its lows in recent days, it has not yet fully digested the negative factors. Macroeconomic regulation and monetary policy continue to tighten, and the impact on the real economy remains to be seen. It is expected that there will be some concrete performances at the end of the three quarter or the four quarter.

At the same time, from the current A share market to the attractiveness of the funds, I think there is no directional change, the A share market in the future may be more difficult.

Personally, I think the bottom of the valuation of the A shares has basically taken shape. The bottom of the policy is gradually forming. The impact of the deposit reserve ratio on the deposit scope is gradually being digested. It is expected that some factors will be gradually digested by the market in the end of September and October.

The most difficult to identify is the bottom of the market.

In my opinion, the most important factor to observe the market changes is capital. If the market can attract outside capital to enter, then the market may come. But now the market is still in a low slump and there is no willingness to enter the field. So I think the bottom of the market has not yet arrived.

Whether the over-the-counter capital will enter, mainly observe two factors: one is whether the tightening monetary policy has changed, and the two is whether the flow of private capital has changed, such as whether the interbank financial products and the attraction of high interest rate products in the private lending market are less attractive to the funds.

Now the scope of real estate regulation has been further expanded, and some two or three line cities have been included in the restriction scope. The crowding out effect of the property market will make some capital flow to the stock market, but I think the crowding out effect of capital is a long-term process. The attraction of the stock market depends on the overall valuation level and the dividend rate.

In the near future, whether the continuous volume and volume of market pactions mean that the land price is still hard to come to a conclusion. However, from the perspective of the attraction of funds, if there are no new unfavorable factors, the current position should have a certain supporting force, and the possibility of short-term rebound will not be ruled out.

This year, the market trend is weak, but structural opportunities always exist, such as the cement stocks in the first half of the year, the liquor stocks in the second half of the year, and the performance of some daily consumer goods as well as textile and clothing and phosphorus chemical stocks.

If we look at the structural opportunities from the perspective of the recent consumption sector, I think some stocks in the consumer sector can intervene, and in the long run, we will get better returns.

From the perspective of institutional asset allocation, it is not too risky to choose assets such as finance and real estate as the core of a portfolio, while assets such as consumer, such as communications, household appliances, medicine, and some small and medium sized boards and gem, can be used as offensive varieties.

From the perspective of individual investors, it may not be a good time to choose stocks in this position. It is a good choice to configure some index products or proactive products with relatively high financial asset weights.

Li Lei: phosphorus chemical industry is hard to become rare earth second

The phosphorus chemical stocks in A shares have attracted much attention since August. The driving force for the rise of the shares of phosphorus chemical stocks is mainly due to the rising prices of phosphate rock and the stimulation of events. At present, all countries in the world have strengthened the control of phosphate resources. Hubei's "opinions on further strengthening the development and management of high phosphorus iron ore resources in phosphate rock" clearly stipulate that the phosphate ore enterprises with the production capacity below 150 thousand tons / year have been gradually restructured and closed, so that the phosphate ore resources are facing integration, and the gap between domestic prices and international prices is larger. Although the current phosphate rock price has reached a historical high level, there is still a big gap from the international price, so there will be some speculation in the two level market.

The shortage of phosphate rock supply and demand is difficult to alleviate in the short term. The phosphate rock has been listed as one of the mineral resources that can not meet the national production demand in the next 20 years.

How far can the market of the current phosphate chemical industry go, depending on whether the overall market situation can be warmer. If in a weak market, although the phosphate chemical stocks can appear a short-term deviation from the upward trend of the market, but this trend is less likely to maintain a longer period of time. Short term phosphate ore prices may not rise sharply after a sustained rise, but the deviation between the spot market price movements and the stock market price trend often occurs in the weak market.

The rare earth permanent magnet plate, which once used to be spectacular, is also benefiting from the rising trend of product prices. However, the phosphate rock chemical stocks are unlikely to become rare earth second. There are three reasons: first, even though they belong to rare resources, but the strategic height is different, the position of the rare earth is obviously higher than that of the phosphate ores; the two is that the rare earth permanent magnet has carried on the two level market speculation with the background of the state vigorously developing the new energy vehicle, while the phosphate chemical industry stock lacks such powerful background; three is the world's difference, the recent strong stock market has been falling down frequently, and the unsustainability of the plate rise is the main characteristic of this stage.

Phosphating is an important branch of pesticide and fertilizer plate. The rise of related stocks will also stimulate other pesticides and fertilizer stocks in the short run.

In the long run, according to the China Pesticide Industry Association formally promulgated the "12th Five-Year" pesticide industry development plan in July, by 2015, the output value of the pesticide industry will reach 230 billion yuan, with a sales income of 220 billion yuan, and a profit of 15 billion yuan.

By 2015, the number of pesticide enterprises will be reduced by 30%, and more than 20 pesticide production enterprises with sales volume of more than 2 billion yuan will show that the future pesticide and fertilizer industry will appear to be weak and strong, and long-term attention should be paid to the leading pesticide and fertilizer companies.