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    A Shares Fall Or Fall, Do Not Follow Up The Curse &Nbsp; What Are The Implications Behind The Dense Volume?

    2011/9/17 17:10:00 48

    A Share Magic Spell Intensive Hints

    Rumours

    Italy

    The demand for China's purchases of Italy's treasury bonds and the announcement by the five major central banks that they would jointly provide three US dollar liquidity operations continued to soar in the US and Europe.

    However, if careful analysis is made, the above good practices are pitional good measures which can not fundamentally solve the European debt crisis.


    As for whether China buys Italy's treasury bonds, a senior official of the Ministry of Finance in Italy said recently that it did not specifically request China to buy Italy's treasury bonds, and the market demand for treasury bonds is good.

    At present, when China comes out and what is the bid, it is still unknown.

    So the news that China may buy Italy bonds is a good way of futures, not even good.


    For the five central banks to jointly inject liquidity into the European banking sector, the main purpose is to ease the pressure of US dollar cash flow on the daily operation of European banking industry, thereby ensuring Europe.

    Bank

    The industry develops its business normally.

    Therefore, this is an emergency measure rather than a fundamental solution to the European debt crisis.

    The European debt crisis is still grim.


    It is precisely because of the above reasons that the two major advantages of European stock market are very obvious. Therefore, domestic investors are quite calm.

    Moreover, the domestic problems are also very intractable.


    First, inflation is likely to remain high in September.

    According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce in September 14th, the price of aquatic products in the 36 major cities in the whole country (14.20, -0.12, -0.84%) decreased by 0.2%, while the prices of other eight types of food increased.

    Despite the fall in the two leading prices of pork and eggs after the Mid Autumn Festival, it is difficult to ensure that the national food prices will rise again before the national day. Therefore, food prices will probably remain high in September, and the rise in food prices may exceed August.


    Two, the market funds are facing unprecedented tension at present.

    With the prolonged monetary tightening, its lagging effect has begun to manifest. If it is said that it is the most tense period of capital, it is not excessive.

    The central bank has invested more than 350 billion yuan in ninth consecutive weeks, but it is still hard to understand the thirst of market funds.

    Private lending, usury and shadow banking have repeatedly appeared.


    At the same time, incidents such as debt evading, illegal fund-raising and explosive storage have also occurred frequently.

    The tension and chaos of the whole private capital can be seen.


    Three, the cautious attitude of the market remains high.

    On the 15 day, the national energy board released the latest data. In August, the total electricity consumption of the whole society dropped sharply year after year, confirming the slowdown of China's economy.

    A survey of bankers and entrepreneurs in the three quarter of 2011 released by the central bank showed that China's macroeconomic fever continued to decline, and more than 96% of bankers believed that monetary policy remained unchanged or continued to tighten in the four quarter.

    The savers' questionnaire survey shows that only 9.2% of stock investment is selected, and the "stock investment" will fall to the lowest level since 2009.

    Such a cautious mentality can hardly be reversed without strong external stimulation.


    In summary, the author believes that the current European debt crisis is still in the fermentation process, the domestic problems have not been improved, plus the policy has not been good, in this context, the Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares can only maintain a weak position.


    What are the implications behind dense volumes?


    Friday,

    A shares

    Once again, the performance of a "falling or not going up" drama is also a new low of nearly three years.

    The continuous shrinking of trading volume has made investors worried. After all, in the short 11 trading days since September, the volume of Shanghai stock market was 2 yuan on 60 billion yuan, and the remaining 8 trading days were about 50000000000 yuan, and on Friday it dropped to below 50 billion yuan.


    As I mentioned earlier, the root cause of the frequency is the lack of confidence of investors, and the root cause of the lack of confidence comes from pessimistic expectations for future economic growth.

    Secondly, it needs to be explained that the appearance of this phenomenon is also related to the current "special time point".

    By the end of the year, the savings war between banks has been revival, which objectively caused the shortage of market funds, and this situation will become more obvious in the coming time.


    It is also necessary to remind investors that they should not only look at the surface but also treat them dialectically.

    Take the volume, the repeated volume shows that doing more dynamic energy is not enough, to a certain extent, shows that the current chip lock is strong.

    Under this premise, the short-term pressure of the market should not be overstated. Personally, I think the Shanghai Composite Index has the possibility of hitting 2500 points again.

    This is why I have repeatedly stressed the need to take a rational view of the contradictions in the current A share market and prepare for long-term psychological preparation. After all, the factors that affect the market will not change overnight, and the establishment of market confidence will take more time.


     

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