PTA High Price Shocks

At present, the international economic situation is turbulent. Regulation policy Without loosening the environment, textile material PTA has gone through a good rebound. brace PTA The main reason for price rebound is upstream. PX supply Tighter and lower demand for polyester.

According to current PX price Forecast The production cost of PTA is about 9500 yuan / ton, plus the average profit level of current manufacturers, the spot price of PTA should be 10000-10300 yuan / ton. As of July, China's PTA device has been running at a high load, but the PTA inventory of PTA factories, traders and downstream polyester manufacturers are at a low level. The tight spot fundamentals support a strong rebound in PTA prices since July. Therefore, the price of PTA futures around the 10000 yuan pass is also reasonable.

In recent years, with the rapid growth of domestic PTA capacity, the dependence on imports has decreased year by year. 2011 enters again fast Expansion phase The capacity growth rate reached 31%, and the capacity is expected to exceed 20 million tons by the end of the year. The result of the rapid expansion of domestic capacity is that PTA will enter a situation of self-sufficiency or even overcapacity. However, the preference of some domestic manufacturers of high-end products to the import of PTA raw materials and the advantages of imported PTA as a way of financing can reduce the cost of enterprises' capital, and PTA imports will remain at a certain level.