4 Billion 300 Million, The Capital Will Enter The Market, And The &Nbsp Will Be The Top Four.

Yesterday, the market showed a small shrinkage.

Some analysts pointed out that after a long period of adjustment, the current volume means that the selling chips of the empty Gunners are coming to an end.

In the market in a completely oversold state, part of the central line of funds began to enter the layout, capital flows into the front part of the plate is expected to become the main new favorite.

Chemical fiber

Demand for downstream products is coming.

Yesterday, the total turnover of chemical and chemical fiber board was 14 billion 893 million yuan, and the net flow of funds was 853 million yuan, accounting for 5.73% of the total turnover.

Among them, six countries chemical fund net inflow of 281 million yuan, accounting for 20.74% of the stock's daily turnover; 201 million of the net capital inflow of Cheng Xing share, accounting for 17.68% of the total turnover; the net capital inflow of rainbow refined capital was 79 million yuan, accounting for 45.97% of the total turnover.

In addition, the net capital inflow of Huifeng shares, ST new materials, Qingdao soda industry, Jin Lu Group, Hunan Haili, Xin'an stock, joint chemical industry, and blonde technology has obvious net inflow.

Judging from the price of 57 chemical products last week, CITIC Securities data show that 23 kinds of prices have risen, 4 have dropped, and 30 have been flat.

Northern rainfalls postponed the price of agricultural fertilizer, urea and potassium chloride, and the diammonium market shifted from exports to domestic prices.

BDO continues to be a highlight of the polyurethane industry, and other polyurethane raw materials demand is still in a slow recovery process.

Chlor alkali industry continues to pay more attention to the price of caustic soda; soda ash is dominated by consolidation; PVC profits are close to historical lows, but there is still no sign of demand recovery in the short term.

The spandex and viscose staple fiber will enter the raw material inventory digestion stage of downstream weaving enterprises, and the road of prosperity and uplink will be full of frustrations.

The price of yellow phosphorus has risen sharply, but the general demand for downstream is common.

Methanol is supported by downstream demand and overseas prices, and prices continue to rise.

Among them, the demand for fertilizer of two yuan fertilizer slowed down, the market of potassium chloride declined, and prices began to fall; the northern rainfall delayed the use of fertilizer for agriculture, and domestic urea fell slightly; the market of diammonium phosphate turned from exports to domestic demand, and the supply of domestic goods increased, and prices stabilized at a high level.

After the price of spandex and viscose staple increased, volume fell and entered the digestion stage of raw material inventory of downstream weaving enterprises.

The uplink of spandex will be bumpy, but the direction will not change.

Polyester prices rose slightly last week, raw materials PTA and MEG prices fell, corporate profits slightly improved in the short term.

Nylon prices rose and profits continued to recover.

In terms of phosphorus chemical industry, the price of yellow phosphorus has risen sharply, but the general demand for the downstream is generally.

The impact of limited production integration and rainy season on the overall operating rate of the phosphate rock has declined, while downstream enquiries and procurement are more enthusiastic and the supply tension continues.

The price of phosphoric acid is maintained at a high level due to power restriction, shutdown and low inventory.

Sodium tripolyphosphate continues to rise as raw materials are pushed up, and the downstream market is closed.

Domestic demand for formaldehyde, acetic acid and other downstream products is about to pick up. Overseas prices continue to rise. Domestic methanol prices continue to rise, rising nearly 10% in the past month, becoming one of the few bright spots in bulk chemicals.

Everbright Securities researcher believes that due to the current weak market, investors are not high participation.

Referring to the valuation level of individual stocks, the judgement is at the bottom stage, but the big rebound still needs to wait for the catalyst.

At the same time, with the arrival of the three quarter earnings growth or the time of achievement cash, there will be a wave of quarterly reports. We can choose some industries and stocks that are beyond expectation, such as soda ash (Xindu chemical industry, double ring technology), fertilizer (Hubei Yihua, Saline Lake stock), Amway shares and so on.

Growth stocks are concerned about the targets of big industries and small companies, such as Donghua science and technology, Halliday, Ding long shares, Amway shares, and Kang Dexin.

Minsheng securities maintains the industry's "standard" proposal.

First of all, optimistic about the industry trend of rising Saline Lake shares, Guan Nong shares.

Secondly, we are optimistic about the growth of new technology, Yongxin stock and Japan Chemical.

At the same time, we are optimistic about the benefiting varieties of phosphate rock: Hubei Yihua, yinfanhua and Xingfa group.

Again, we hope that the chlor alkali plate, which has benefited from energy saving and emission reduction, will benefit from the sticky and short price increase.

The growth of small and medium brokerage firms is the most obvious.

Yesterday, the total turnover of the financial sector represented by brokerages was 6 billion 544 million yuan, with net capital flowing into 707 million yuan, accounting for 10.81% of the total turnover.

Among them, the net capital inflow of Founder Securities was 168 million yuan, accounting for 12.67% of the stock's daily turnover; CITIC Securities net capital inflow was 77 million yuan, accounting for 14.34% of the total turnover; and the net inflow of the national offshore securities fund was 62 million yuan, accounting for 9.95% of the total turnover.

In addition, the net capital inflow of China Merchants Securities, Huatai Securities, Xingye Bank, GF Securities, Southwest Securities, Changjiang Securities, state Yuan Securities and Shanxi securities is obvious.

According to the data of 17 brokerages, the number of business income and net profit of the 17 Listed brokerages in the first half of 2011 is almost half that of the same year, but the reasons for the increase and decrease are different. The increase or decrease of business income may come from the growth or atrophy of the market, the increase or decrease of the business competitiveness, or the increase or decrease of the scale of the operating assets, or the synthesis of the above reasons.

It is noteworthy that the net assets of the Changjiang Securities and Shanxi securities increased significantly during the comparison period, but their operating income did not rise or fall.

In the first half of the year, the net profit and operating income of the 17 brokerages also varied significantly. In general, the increase of business revenue was greater than that of the decline, while the net profit was the opposite. The rate of decline was greater than the growth rate. The phenomenon of asynchrony was mainly related to the change of management fees.

Industry analysts believe that in the first half of the year, most brokerages' management fees increased to varying degrees, especially the growth of local small and medium sized brokerages was the most obvious. The increase was generally higher than the growth of operating revenue, resulting in a sharp rise in the cost / income ratio.

In the first half of the year, Founder Securities revenue grew by 23%, but the cost increased by 65%, and the cost / income increased by 32% compared to the same period last year, reaching 55%, but it was not the most outrageous.

In the first half of the year, the revenue of Northeast Securities increased by 13%, the cost increased by 25%, and the cost / income ratio increased by 11%, reaching 75% on the basis of the already high level.

At present, most small and medium brokerages have a cost / income ratio of more than 50%, and the rise of costs means that profits will be swallowed up. Where will the profits come from at such a high cost?

As a result, on the basis of analysis of the 2011 broker's report, Guo Yuan securities listed the most investment value brokerage companies: Haitong Securities, CITIC Securities, Everbright Securities, and China Merchants Securities.

New energy and material policy support sub sectors benefit

Yesterday, the total turnover of new energy and materials sector was 12 billion 660 million yuan, with a net inflow of 578 million yuan, accounting for 4.57% of the total turnover.

Among them, the tower group's net capital inflow amounted to 121 million yuan, which accounted for 21.84% of the total turnover of the stock, and the net investment of the rare earth funds in Baotou Steel was 87 million yuan, which accounted for 13.62% of the total turnover. The net capital inflow of Fangda carbon fund was 67 million yuan, accounting for 7.08% of the total turnover.

In addition, the net capital inflow of Baotou Steel shares, Sinosteel jig, conch cement, cloud sea metal, new day Hengli, CICC south of the Five Ridges, Gan Feng lithium and BaoTi shares is obvious.

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PV is promising for a long time, but it is still short of power in the short term.

It is reported that as of August, the total number of reported projects has been about 3.5GW.

Market analysts believe that there is a lesson from Italy and Spain, the price of components is still in decline, and the amount of subsidies available to the state is limited.

As expected, large domestic projects are basically monopolized by power generation groups. With the aim of completing the project as soon as possible and lowering the cost, most of the photovoltaic plants have won the majority of the projects. The industry's overall profitability is declining while the concentration of the industry is increasing and the price is falling.

It is expected that there will be no possibility of rapid improvement in the next half year, and the integration of PV industry will continue.

In the short term, we hope that KSTAR and Kehua Hengsheng will be optimistic about the inverter market due to the actual demand in the domestic market.

Wind power growth and profit double decline, the wind power industry still needs to avoid.

Ping An Securities pointed out that the competition in the whole manufacturing process was fierce, and the profit margins of parts suppliers were also greatly reduced.

At present, the fixed price policy of wind power is adopted, the operation income of the wind farm is relatively fixed, while the whole manufacturing sector is highly competitive and the price trend is decreasing.

This increases the profit margins of the operation of wind farms.

Pay close attention to the highest stocks in the wind field of unit rights and interests: Yinxing energy.

Smart grid, waiting for the smart grid to enter the large-scale construction period, still optimistic about the two device leader.

The investment in power grid, which is measured by pformer capacity, continues to decline compared with the same period last year. Ping An Securities expects that the grid investment will resume growth in 2012, and the investment opportunities of the power grid will be mainly structural.

Continue to see empty equipment, long-term optimistic about the two leading equipment companies, short-term distribution network equipment related companies in the business cycle.

Continue to recommend Guodian Nancy.

Machinery manufacturing high-end equipment manufacturing is the theme.

Yesterday, the total turnover of machinery manufacturing sector was 13 billion 271 million yuan, with a net inflow of 632 million yuan, accounting for 4.77% of the total turnover.

Among them, the net capital inflow of Nantong science and technology funds was 125 million yuan, accounting for 42.63% of the daily turnover of the stock market; the net inflow of aerospace technology funds was 72 million yuan, accounting for 61.03% of the total turnover; FAW's net inflow of funds amounted to 72 million yuan, accounting for 47.49% of the total turnover.

In addition, the net inflow of aerospace and military industries such as aerospace dawn, aerospace electronics, China Aviation Precision aircraft, aviation power, and China Mobile has obvious net inflow.

Focus on the military sector and the theme of intelligent equipment.

Everbright Securities believes that under the uncertainty of future macro-economy, it will be optimistic about the aircraft manufacturing industry supported by the national strategic emerging industry "12th Five-Year" plan, and the military industry with asset injection expectations.

In the field of aircraft manufacturing, Xifei international, aviation power, Hafei shares, China Aviation fine machinery and Guihang shares are respectively represented in five fields, namely, aircraft, key components, helicopters, airborne matching and general aviation low altitude opening.

The military industry is optimistic about China's satellite and Chinese heavy industry.

From the perspective of China's satellite itself, it is imminent to inject assets into the five largest space companies.

80% of the assets of the five houses did not enter the listed companies, especially the big satellites and satellite application businesses, and their profitability far exceeded that of the small satellites.

At the same time, it is expected that the Chinese satellite is expected to start the injection of assets in the second half of the year.

The logic of China's heavy industry lies in the fact that in the face of the rapid development of the non ship equipment of the company, by the end of 12th Five-Year, the business structure of China's heavy industry will be changed to more than 50%, military 7%, marine 12%-15%, and civil ship 31%.

With the continuous injection of key military and non ship assets in the following year, China heavy industry will maintain the leading position of the A - share equipment manufacturing company for a long time.

By the end of this year, if the issuance is successfully completed, it will not be difficult for the company to move its market value to the 200 billion target.

In addition, we recommend the theme investment of high-end equipment manufacturing with performance guarantee.

The high-end manufacturing equipment represented by robots and high-grade CNC machine tools represents the upgrading of industrial structure and the substitution of labor.

In the field of labor-intensive agriculture, the large-scale application of agricultural machinery is also an inevitable trend.

We mainly recommend robots, Shenyang machine tools, daily digital, new research shares and Kai Shan shares.

The price of bank system has been rising for two consecutive trading days this week after being churned by new issues such as hydropower.

However, due to the central bank's early deployment in the open market and the gradual return of savings funds to the banking system, the supply of funds is not tight at present. Before the "eleven" long holiday, the liquidity of the market is not in danger.

As the demand for new funds surged, the price of interbank market funds rose all the way from Monday.

Yesterday, the overnight repo rate rose 33 basis points, approaching the price level of the first batch of banks' deposit deposit in September 5th. The 14 day repurchase at the end of the same quarter also increased continuously for two consecutive days. Not only the weighted average interest rate rose 89 basis points, but the paction volume hit a new high of 3 months, more than double the average daily turnover of 14 billion 400 million yuan last week.

At the same time, the central bank yesterday through the eighth phase of treasury cash deposit tenders, to the market invested 30 billion yuan in March funds, the successful rate of up to 6.15%, indicating that small and medium banks are still facing a larger end of the deposit loan ratio assessment pressure.

However, the central bank has mobilized funds in large scale, and savings funds have gradually returned to the banking system, and liquidity will be better than market expectations at the end of 9.

Therefore, the financial pressure generated by new demand may not have a major impact on the liquidity of the banking system in the end of September.

Statistics show that the central bank has moved through the open market operation nearly 300 billion funds to the first, second week of October release.

The funding time was not only matched by the bank's time to make up the reserve in October, but also exceeded the total amount of more than 60 billion yuan, thus reducing the pressure on banks to make advance payment funds in advance at the end of September.

In addition, since 7 and August, affected by the stock market downturn, the housing market regulation, and the regulatory authorities' efforts to rectify the financial products, some areas have shown signs of repatriation of savings deposits in some areas, increasing the available funds in the hands of banks.

And because the central bank suspended the implementation of differential deposit reserve ratio for some small and medium-sized commercial banks in mid September, it further enriched the liquidity of small and medium-sized banks.

Reporters recently learned from the interbank market that although the issuance of large cap stocks before the long holidays exceeded market expectations, it did not result in tight supply of funds.

A bank capital trader said that the new demand indeed pushed up the price of funds. However, the supply of market funds is still abundant, and some state-owned commercial banks and policy banks still have a large number of monthly funds waiting to melt out.

The results of the open market operation on Tuesday showed that the central bank once again passed the 7 day repo operation and moved the 30 billion yuan fund to the next week to release, so that the amount of funds expended in the open market in the last week of September rose to nearly 60 billion yuan.

At the same time, according to the current IPO timetable, new funds will eventually be lifted before 29 days.

Therefore, the recent issuance of new shares will only have a phased impact on the capital, but will not lead to the recurrence of liquidity in 6 and July.

Minsheng Securities Research Institute strategic team

Entering the September, under the influence of various factors at home and abroad, the market turbulence descended.

On the 20 day, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2447.76 points, down 4.66% from the beginning of the month. The Shenzhen stock index closed at 10679.30 points, down 6.30% from the beginning of the month, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index closed at 2689.85 points, down 5.51% from the beginning of the month.

Consistent with the continued downturn in the stock market, trading volume has been shrinking. Since September, the average daily trading volume of all A shares is only 100 billion 800 million yuan, a sharp decrease compared with the average daily average of 159 billion 700 million yuan in August.

Domestic price pressures remain high, and the soft landing time of economic growth is prolonged. The foreign economic situation is still uncertain, and the cyclical market is still hard to find in the short term.

Continue to be optimistic about computer, electrical equipment, media and aviation performance determination, policy driven industries.

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The European debt crisis is uncertain.

Last week, the Greek government made it clear that the money on hand was only enough to last until next month. If it could not get help, it would officially "cut grain" and default would become inevitable.

Affected by this, the yield of Greek one-year bonds exceeded 100%, while the scale of Italy's national debt reached 120%, and the cost of borrowing and the risk of default also soared. Global stock markets were also "black Monday" again.

On the 15 day, the European Central Bank announced that the United States, Japan and Switzerland will jointly take three operations to provide us dollar liquidity for a period of about 3 months, covering the end of this year.

To a certain extent, this alleviated the problem of liquidity shortage at the end of the bank.

But as a short-term strategy, it still can not solve the risk of the spreading European debt crisis.

Compared with the simple European debt crisis, the euro crisis seems to be more concerned by the European Central Bank and Germany and France.

Only by maintaining the euro will it be possible to save the European debt crisis.

The only way out in the short term is to issue Euro bonds or adopt low interest financial support to quantify the debt relief.

As one of the international reserve currencies, since the establishment of the euro, the European Central Bank has continued issuing bonds to export to the euro. Over the past 10 years, the external output of the euro has reached 16 trillion and 600 billion, creating the basic conditions for the European Central Bank's quantitative assistance.

The impact of the European debt crisis is lingering in the short term, and the debt repayment pressure faced by Italy and Spain continues to increase.

It is expected that the ECB will be forced to re launch debt relief to Greece and even Italy in September, and expand bond buying by the debtor countries, which is expected to exceed 100 billion euros.

Europe and the United States are the locomotive of the global trade market, and Europe is the main object of China's trade export.

If the European debt crisis spreads to the real economy, it will directly affect China's exports.

At present, China's trade surplus is already in a downward path. If the European debt crisis develops further, China's foreign trade situation will further deteriorate.

At the same time, the Euro Reserve is also an important part of China's foreign exchange reserves, and Europe's instability may cause serious damage to China's euro assets.

Soft landing time for domestic economy

Since the beginning of this year, the rate of return on investment has been increasing, credit is tight, investment funds are insufficient, new construction projects and construction projects have been in a state of reduction. Under these factors, the growth rate of investment will slow down in the second half of this year.

According to the industry, the investment in manufacturing industry is affected by the decline of PPI and the decline in profits. The investment in commercial housing is affected by the regulation of real estate. The investment in railways, highways and public facilities is affected by financial constraints. The investment growth in the three quarter is predicted to be 22.9%, the fourth quarter growth is 20.5%, and the annual growth is 23%.

In the second half of this year, under the downward trend of investment, it is expected that the economy will continue to make a soft landing and forecast that the annual GDP growth rate will fall to around 9.3%.

Short term policy easing is unlikely.

In August, CPI declined under the influence of the tail factor reduction, but the price circle was still on the upward trend. In August, CPI rose 0.3%.

Among them, food prices rose 0.6%, non food prices rose 0.2%.

8 in mid and late June, influenced by the advent of the Mid Autumn Festival, the prices of edible agricultural products increased rapidly, and the prices of edible oil, eggs and vegetables increased greatly.

In the first two weeks of September, the upward pressure on food prices was still more obvious. Meat, poultry, eggs and vegetable prices showed an upward trend in the middle and late 8 months, especially for three consecutive weeks, with a ring ratio of more than 1%, and meat prices rose sharply.

Food prices will continue to show an upward trend in September.

Under the inflationary pressure still larger pattern, it is expected that the policy will remain tight in the short term.

The capital side is still tight.

The open market funds have been invested for 9 consecutive weeks.

Last week, the net money invested was 7 billion yuan, which was reduced compared with the previous two weeks.

Of which, 139 billion yuan in currency and 132 billion yuan in the central bank.

The continuous net investment of central banks has played a certain role in easing the tight market funds.

However, in August, the trade surplus decreased more than that in July. It is predicted that the balance of foreign exchange in August will be reduced compared with July.

This also reduces the money supply of the total market.

Interest rates, 20 days, 14 days Shibor interest rates rose sharply, 4.5579% increased by 97.40BP compared with 19.

Market funds are still tight.

In the short term, we predict that the open market operation will still be dominated by net investment.

Entering the September, under the influence of various factors at home and abroad, the market will continue to shake down.

We believe that domestic price pressures remain high and the soft landing time for economic growth is prolonged. The foreign economic situation is still uncertain, and the market is still hard to find cyclical market in the short term.

Continue to be optimistic about computer, electrical equipment, media and aviation performance determination, policy driven industries.

Yesterday, the A share market showed a trend of first suppression and back up, especially when the Shanghai composite index was in the middle of the market due to the rise of the stock market and other popular stocks.

Although it was blocked, the index remained stubborn at the end of the session, indicating that the bulls had already made some moves. It seems that the short-term market has become more active.

So how do we see this trend?

Stock funds to change the trend of adjustment

I tend to think that the short run of the big market is difficult.

Because historical experience shows that under the background of a longer adjustment cycle, the Yang K-line of land volume can only bring short-term stabilization, and it is difficult to change the trend of market adjustment.

Why?

This is mainly based on two points. First, the purpose of the attack of stock funds is to save themselves and delay the adjustment cycle of the market.

Two, the stock fund itself is unable to change the long-term adjustment trend of the market.

Therefore, if we want to reverse the trend of a big adjustment market, we must have new funds to intervene. It is reflected in the disk, often after a continuous adjustment of a Changyang K line, can only play a role in turning the tide.

However, as for the current market, there is obviously a lack of such an atmosphere. On the one hand, the capital structure of the A share market is not conducive to the launch of a new round of rise in the market. For example, the funds of the mainstream funds such as the current market are already marginalized, and have become the object of public opinion. Therefore, it is hoped that the current fund and other institutional funds will launch a round of market quotation.

On the other hand, it is because the current economic level is not conducive to the reversal of the A share market. For example, there is no sign of change in the regulation policy. For example, the new economic growth engine has not yet emerged.

Against this background, it can only be a game of stock capital, and it is only a brief stabilization market.

Of course, after all, the short-term market atmosphere is somewhat active, for example, stock investment approved securities companies and phosphorus chemical plates have been active in the near future.

At the same time, at present, the market has entered a cycle with relatively concentrated industrial theme catalysts, for example, the aerospace industry plate, phosphate fertilizer and other industrial stocks.

So, at present, the stock fund is unable to start reversing the market that turns the tide, but it can maintain stability.

Therefore, there is possibility of further activity on Wednesday.

The right amount of capital to build high interest stocks.

To sum up, on the one hand, on the one hand, as the short-term market is expected to stabilize, on the other hand, because of the long-term trend in the market has not yet changed the trend of adjustment, therefore, in the operation, it is recommended that investors should be cautious in the allocation of positions, and the cash should be more than 60%. At the same time, we should attack the varieties with high market identities in order to get short-term returns.

This mainly refers to three types of stocks, one is the stock market which has a high degree of attention on the stock market at present, Xingfa group, Hubei Yihua chemical company, rare earth permanent magnet Zhonghuan three ring, Ningbo rhyme rise, brokerage stock's national ocean securities, Founder Securities, aerospace industry's aerospace electrical appliances, aerospace technology and so on.

The two is the relatively optimistic form of K-line, such as Lutianhua, Tianyuan Group and Cheng Zhi stock.

Three is a good quality, can attack and defend the growth of stock varieties, North Glass shares, Xiu Qiang shares, Longyuan technology and other stocks.