2011, The Domestic Cotton Market Is Complicated.

Editor's note:

In the fields and streets, the annual seed cotton purchase has been heard.

The beginning of the new cotton year has intensified the industry's desire to recognize the market situation.

How much is the cotton output in the new year? How about the purchase price of cotton? Will the cotton price fluctuate drastically in the future? The cotton situation in the new year affects every cotton trader's heart.

"In mid autumn of Beijing this year, the sky is misty, and there is no clear moonlight in the past. And the cotton market is just like this mid autumn moon night."

Gao Fang, director of the cotton and hemp Bureau of the China Federation of supply and marketing cooperatives and executive vice president and Secretary General of the China Cotton Association, described the current cotton market.

Based on this, at the beginning of the new year, the China Cotton Association held the 2011 national cotton situation analysis conference, and invited the relevant departments of the NDRC, the Ministry of agriculture, the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Railways and the agricultural development bank to interpret their support policies for this year's cotton market. The Cotton Association's main cotton division introduced the cotton growth of each cotton region this year, and estimated the output and consumption of cotton in 2011. The industry talked about the current cotton market situation and expressed its views on the trend of cotton market in the later stage; it provided a comprehensive and clear analysis basis for cotton textile enterprises to understand the cotton market situation.

Speaking of the cotton market in the first half of this year, most people in the industry have a lingering fear. In the ups and downs, the cotton market has entered a new year.

"There is a reserve policy for the bottom, and it is expected that the domestic cotton market in 2011 will remain stable overall."

Gao Fang, executive vice president and Secretary General of the China Cotton Association, held in September 15th the cotton situation analysis conference held in September 15th, said that the cotton planting area increased this year, and the harvest is in sight. The textile situation is grim, and the international market supply is slightly larger than the demand.

Cotton production: a bumper harvest is in sight

It has become an indisputable fact that the increase of cotton farmers' income in 2010.

This direct impact is: this year cotton growers cotton planting enthusiasm to improve, the national cotton planting area increased, plus cotton planting since the suitable climate, this year's cotton harvest seems to be a foregone conclusion.

Gao Fang said that according to the China Cotton Association's monitoring, in 2011, the cotton planting area was 80 million 180 thousand mu, which increased by 4.1% compared to the same caliber, and the total output of cotton was estimated to be 7 million 380 thousand tons, an increase of 11% over the same period last year.

From the late August to late August, the climate suitability of cotton is relatively suitable. The yield per unit area is higher than that of last year, and the trend is a good year. The climate of the Yellow River River Basin and cotton region is suitable, and the growth of cotton is good.

From August to early September, a long period of rain and light in some parts of the Yellow River and Yangtze River Basin had a certain effect on cotton yield and quality, and the yield was expected to decline compared with the earlier stage.

In line with the Cotton Association's views, there is also the Department of crop management of the Ministry of agriculture's rural economic research center and the Ministry of agriculture.

Du Min, director of the rural economic research center of the Ministry of agriculture, said that the country's seed cotton yield is 265 kilograms, of which Xinjiang is the highest, the Yangtze River and the Yellow River are slightly low, about 230 kilograms, and the total output of cotton is estimated to be 7 million 120 thousand tons.

"This year's cotton production area and unit production are showing an increasing trend. If there is no major change in the late weather, the total production will be estimated at around 7 million tons."

Long Xi, deputy director of the Department of crop management, Ministry of agriculture.

Textile industry: complicated situation

When supply is no longer suspense, demand becomes a decision.

Gao Fang analysis shows that the problems facing the textile industry in 2011 are still very complex, and there is great difficulty in the rapid growth of the industry.

First of all, domestic inflation pressure is still relatively large, monetary tightening policy will not change temporarily, financing difficulties and costs will increase. Secondly, the international economic situation is changing, demand recovery is not stable, RMB exchange rate will continue to appreciate, and international competitiveness will be weakened.

As the downstream products of cotton, the trend of cotton yarn and cotton cloth has a direct impact on the market situation of cotton.

Zhu Beina, President of China Cotton Textile Industry Association, predicts that the cotton yarn and cotton market will improve in the second half of the year.

At the beginning of August, after the meeting of the temporary purchasing and storage working conference, the confidence of the industry increased. After August 25th, the price of cotton yarn and cloth increased. Judging from the current market situation, it is expected that prices will be relatively stable in September and October, but the uncertainty is greater after November.

From the perspective of consumption demand, 70% of China's textile products rely on the international market.

Cotton Market Outlook: smooth operation

The supply of international market has increased sharply, and demand has changed little. Supply is slightly larger than demand.

Under the above factors, cotton prices in 2011 are difficult to go up.

Gao Fang believes that the growth rate of the textile industry in the new year will continue to slow down. Cotton demand will remain at the level of the previous year. Under the support of purchasing and storage policy, the domestic cotton market in 2011 will remain stable overall.

Zhang Xianbin, director of the economic and trade division of the national development and Reform Commission, said that the cotton harvest at home and abroad is not optimistic in the new year. The international economic situation is not optimistic. There will be no obvious increase in demand and a downward pressure on the new cotton listed price.

Under the current situation, Shi Jinkai, general manager of China Cotton Group Co., Ltd. believes that the cotton market will continue to maintain a stalemate in the near future. Before the end of the year, the cotton market will have a staged market. After the purchase and storage, the cotton market will be completely dominated by the market.

At the same time, he said that if the price of cotton is below the price of storage and purchase, the cotton market will be in short supply. If the cotton price is above the cost, the market will be in short supply.

Bian Shenggui, Secretary General of Shandong Cotton Association, believes that cotton prices will run smoothly in 2011, and cotton purchase price is expected to be between 4.2 yuan and 5 yuan / Jin, with an average price of 4.6 yuan / kg. The lint price is between 18300 yuan and 20300 yuan / ton, and the processing cost of enterprises is about 19500 yuan / ton.