Keep Watch In Cotton Stalking
After a month of slow recovery, cotton spot.
Price
Finally, the national reserve line of 19800 yuan / ton was finally set up.
However, judging from the disk, weakened by the external market, Zheng cotton's 1205 contract was blocked, and prices fell back to the pre oscillation range.
Price factors restrict purchase and storage pactions
Since the launch of the new cotton temporary purchasing and storage mechanism on 8 February, the result of the zero turnover has been surprisingly reasonable.
According to the regulations on the quantity of storage, the paction of the mainland warehouse must be no less than 90 tons, and the Xinjiang storehouse should not be less than 200 tons.
In September cotton had just started large-scale harvesting, but not yet a large number of listed companies, the storage enterprises are still waiting for the opportunity to make a unified storage.
Another more important reason is that
Price
Factor。
According to the latest standard grade seed cotton reference purchase price conversion (seed cotton 4.47 yuan / Jin, cottonseed 2.6 yuan / Jin, lint 38%, wastage 1%, processing fee 700 yuan / ton), lint costs at 20218 yuan / ton, in addition to pactions, pportation, taxes and interest costs, the cost of storage is significantly higher than the reserve price, thereby inhibiting the enthusiasm of enterprises to store.
The peak season is not strong, the textile industry is not optimistic.
With the continuous rebound in spot prices, downstream textile industry
market
The situation has also improved slightly. Although cotton yarn has not been significantly improved, the price of cotton yarn has stabilized, and the market mentality has improved temporarily.
Overall, the problems faced by the textile industry are still very complex, and there are great difficulties in industrial growth.
PMI data show that the new export orders index in August was 48.3%, the first decline since May 2009, while the textile industry ranked one of the 10 new export orders index below 50%.
The main reasons for the decline of the textile industry are: first, the domestic inflation pressure has not been effectively alleviated; the tightening policy will continue; the textile enterprises will have difficulty in financing; secondly, the deterioration of the economic situation in Europe and the United States, the unstable demand recovery, and the uncertainty of imports; and, once again, influenced by the high price of textile raw materials, the appreciation of the renminbi and other factors, the domestic textile export prices are not attractive compared with those in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
In view of the above factors, the growth rate of the textile industry in the new year will continue to slow down, and cotton demand is expected to remain at the same level.
Market stalemate, short-term breakthrough
At present, the cotton market is in a stalemate as a whole.
On spot purchase, cotton merchants and cotton growers compete with each other and wait for a favorable paction price.
Withdrawal of funds in futures market
obvious
In short time, it is in a stalemate, and the turnover is light.
On the whole, the market confidence will continue to suffer under the systemic risk of a weak economic recovery and worsening debt crisis in Europe. The market confidence will continue to suffer. The year of high yield of cotton will be faced with a downturn in demand. The underlying fundamentals decide that prices are difficult to do. However, relative to the surrounding commodities, the price of cotton is relatively small. As long as the domestic purchasing and storage policy remains unchanged, the spot price is expected to have no room to fall sharply.
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