Internal And External Difficulties &Nbsp; A Shares Staged "Eat Fish Spit Thorn"

The day before yesterday rose 63 points.

For the two days of the market trend of repeated, accept the "financial investment newspaper" reporter interviewed analysts believe that, because of the market downturn for a long time, in the peripheral market.

The market has not really recovered.

From Wednesday's rise to Thursday.

"But at present, these two core factors are not obvious. On Wednesday, the sharp rise of A shares is still a technical correction after the overfall.

In this way, in the space and time of the rebound, we naturally take a relatively cautious attitude.

Zhang Gang believes that, in the medium to long term, the market should be at the bottom.

However, in the short term, the results of European and US interest rates are more influential.

Nanjing securities Strategy Analyst Wen Lijun's view is that the oversold rebound on Wednesday showed that after a continuous decline, the index itself did have a larger rebound power, but before the volume can not be effectively enlarged, it can not serve as a sign of market warming.

At the same time, QE3 is expected to fail to make us stocks plummeting and further drag on A shares, which is one of the main external causes of yesterday's big drop.

Turning to the rise before the brokerage stocks have come down, Wen Lijun believes that the recent rise of the securities brokers.

The impact of QE3 failure

One of the main bad news affecting A shares yesterday is that QE3 failed. The Fed adopted a twist operation to extend the term of 400 billion yuan.

In addition, in September, HSBC's China manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.4, indicating that China's manufacturing activities deteriorated slightly for third consecutive months, triggering investors' concerns about China's economic slowdown.

In view of this, the Northeast Securities Institute's view is that distortions will affect the foreign exchange market and commodity markets. The short-term interest rate will be stable and even higher than the US dollar. QE3's liquidity injection is expected to fail, the US dollar will rise and the demand for entities will fall.

"In general, the interest rate conference also determined the reinvestment of bond yields, which maintained the quantitative easing policy to a certain extent.

But according to Bernanke's previous point of view, non-traditional monetary policy includes three categories: low interest rate commitment, QE3 and distortion operation, which have been launched separately, which means that there are not many future operational tools, and the remaining interest rate is lower.

The Northeast Securities Institute believes that whether or not to push the QE3 further is yet to be dissipated by inflationary pressures and debt crisis pressures, which is beneficial to A shares.

However, Ma Jun, chief economist of Greater China in Deutsche Bank, stressed that "the situation is even worse than expected." he pointed out that Europe's problem is unlikely to improve in the one or two quarter. With the further deterioration of the European debt crisis, it is estimated that the PMI data in the fourth quarter will still have downside risks.

As for HSBC's China manufacturing PMI index in September, Hu Yang, an analyst at the Great Wall securities, thinks that the decline of HSBC's PMI index of China's manufacturing industry, on the one hand, shows that China's economic slowdown is worrying. On the other hand, after tightening control, regulators may also take a slight adjustment in policy.

Among them, the State Council meeting directly extended lending to affordable housing, indicating that management has released policy fine tuning signals.

Brewing the second wave upside

Because of the complexity of the message, market analysts have also shown differences in the judgment of the market.

Among them, Qi Dapeng, an analyst at Xiangcai securities, thinks that although the decline in the broader market yesterday covered the rise of Wednesday, the main driving force for the downward trend of the Shanghai stock index is from the short-term and rebounded institutions and individual investors.

Because this part of investors are too empty to the future market, the big rebound will take the opportunity to leave.

Therefore, the short selling short lines of these investors have been released more fully. A new round of energy gathering is gathering. We do not rule out the second wave of upward trend before the National Day holiday.

While GF Securities are relatively empty behind the market, he believes that the sudden rise after a long and cloudy fall is a typical characteristic of bear market.

Because the rebound in the weak market is often completed in the one or two trading days with a rapid rise. After the overfall is restored, the stock index will fall into a long way down again.

The rebound in the weak market is actually a good opportunity to lighten up the investors. Therefore, it is advisable for the barn investors to reduce their positions and keep the cash well for the winter.