The Central Bank Has Been Sending &Nbsp To The Interbank Market For Ten Consecutive Weeks; The Capital Interest Rate Has Gone Up Moderately.

At the end of the quarter and the National Day approaching, the money market is facing a big exam. With prudent anticipation, funds since last Wednesday.

Funds face multi bearing pressure

As of Thursday's closing, interbank offered rate (Shibor) in Shanghai was mixed and the overall capital side eased, and short-term interest rates showed a downward trend.

Among them, the overnight variety fell 23.04 base points to 3.5042%, and the 1 and 2 week varieties dropped 17.65, 12.60 basis points, to 3.9025%, 4.4492%. In the medium and long term products, except for the March Shibor micro drop of 1.04 base points, the other varieties increased slightly.

In the inter-bank bond market, yesterday's 1 day repo rate fell 23.2 basis points to 3.507% over the previous day, the 7 day interest rate dropped 19.7 basis points to 3.927% over the previous day, 14 days interest rate dropped 37.9 basis points to 3.948%, 21 days interest rate increased by 37.9 basis points to 4.1.

In the open market, the central bank yesterday only issued 1 billion yuan central bank votes in March, the interest rate was unchanged from the previous period, and no repo operation was conducted on that day.

On Tuesday, the central bank carried out a repurchase of 30 billion yuan and 7 days, while issuing a 1 billion yuan 1 year central bank ticket.

So far, the central bank has recovered 32 billion yuan this week.

As the funds expended this week amounted to 80 billion yuan, the central bank opened the market to the public this week after hedging.

Analysts believe that factors such as the end of the quarter, the National Day holiday, the assessment of commercial banks' response to indicators, the issuance of large cap stocks and the preparation of the reserve fund, etc., have resulted in the pressure on the capital side.

However, Sheng Hongqing, chief macroeconomic analyst at micro-blog (3.02,0.00,0.00%), believes that, in view of the current domestic economic downturn and the extreme deterioration of the foreign economy, regulators will not raise the interest rate of money market to 6%~9% level. It is estimated that the surge in interest rates around the beginning of the Spring Festival and June and July will not repeat itself.

"Taking into account the remaining time of the year, the flow of funds into the outflow, the withdrawal of funds is about 1 trillion and 530 billion yuan, the injection of funds is about 1 trillion and 600 billion yuan, capital in and out volume is generally relatively balanced."

Sheng Hongqing wrote on Wednesday that "the fourth quarter of the year is expected to be in a tight and moderate position."

Jing Wong, an analyst with Jinyuan securities, told reporters: "the current capital side is a structural problem, and its tightness is still rooted in the central bank's initiative."

Another fixed income researcher is bluntly: "the central bank has no intention of pushing up the interest rate of funds. The most recent measures are to cope with the off balance sheet.

CICC research report said that with the peak of the open market expiration in September, liquidity in the next few months will be more intense under the effect of reserve reserve; CPI may be at 6%~6.2% level in September, and the probability of inflation below 5% is less and less. Therefore, monetary policy is difficult to loose and liquidity will continue to be tight.

New debt issue better

It is worth mentioning that since the beginning of this week, the new tender situation has been better than expected. The 10 year interest rate bonds issued on Wednesday have been multiplying 2 times, and the winning rate is slightly lower than the two level.

In this regard, Guotai Junan fixed income department believes that this shows that in the face of tight funds, domestic and foreign economic growth and risk aversion is rising, has made the long end interest rate product configuration value gradually emerged.

"The improvement of the new debt issuance is because the yield has already met the requirements of some funds and the purchase has been a bit more. The core of the conversion of supply and demand is price."

Jing Wong said.