September CPI Growth Is Expected To Fall Slightly.

Since September, driven by consumption factors such as Mid Autumn Festival, food prices continue to show a small margin.

The ring may continue to rise.

According to the newly released price monitoring data released by the National Bureau of statistics, since September, the main food prices in 50 cities of the country have generally increased slightly, and the more obvious foods include beef, mutton, fruits and so on.

Pork prices earlier fell slightly.

According to the data released by the Ministry of Commerce, the price of edible agricultural products (14.40,0.00,0.00%) has increased in recent years, but the increase has narrowed after the Mid Autumn Festival.

In particular, the price of eggs and meat and poultry increased rapidly in the early stage, and the prices of grain, oil and vegetables continued to rise slightly.

Guo Hai securities (17.16, -0.32, -1.83%) (micro-blog) issued a research report that after the Mid Autumn Festival, the price of food has narrowed than the increase, and the market's doubts about the new high price increase are being dispelled, but the short-term price drop is unlikely.

CPI is expected to rise by 6.0%-6.2% in September, and inflation pressure is not obvious in the short term.

Analysts believe that although the overall price of consumer goods is rising, the tail factor continues to be an important factor for CPI's year-on-year fall.

Specifically, as long as the CPI growth rate does not exceed 0.5% in September, the increase in CPI will be lower than that in August by 6.2%.

Song Guoqing, Professor of China Economic Research Center of Peking University, believes that the recent sharp fall in international agricultural futures prices is a favorable condition for China to curb the rise in food prices.

In August, CPI's year-on-year rise has dropped somewhat compared with July, but it is not easy to say whether it will continue to fall in September.

Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher of the State Council Counselor's office, said that the effect of the previous regulatory policies began to show. The influence of the tail factor was gradually weakening. Now inflation has entered the downward channel, and the fourth quarter price fall will be more obvious.

Fourth quarter or slow down

The National Bureau of statistics will announce the main economic data in September in mid October.

Analysts believe that in the short term, the CPI increase is unlikely to exceed 6.5% of the previous high point, and monetary policy regulation has received a more obvious effect. At present, the Central Bank continues to raise interest rates or raise the deposit reserve ratio.

Niu Li, director of the macroeconomic Department of the state information center, said that the three quarter will be the high price of the current round of inflation.

In the next few months, the price increase may be significantly lower than before.

If there are natural factors such as the reduction of output of agricultural products, the speculation of idle funds will play a role in boosting prices.

But at present, liquidity continues to tighten, and there may not be any new varieties that will increase substantially in the future.

Chen Dongqi, vice president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, said that the current inflation situation in China is basically controllable. In the next ten years, especially in the "12th Five-Year" period, China's CPI growth is expected to be between 3% and 5%.

There are many reasons for this price rise. Single policy is hard to achieve. Timing and rhythm should be chosen for regulation.