In Recent 4 Weeks, The Price Of Vegetables Has Accelerated &Nbsp, Or Blocked The Way Of CPI Down In September.

The national day will be held this weekend, and the three quarter will end.

"At present, the price of vegetables is still not cheap. Pork has returned to 16 yuan a Jin. After the Mid Autumn Festival, the price has just dropped down and it has gone back again."

Li aunt, who is buying vegetables in Beijing's PU Li Li vegetable market, told reporters.

Market analysts said that as the autumn went deep, many vegetable products had already been in production season, and the supply of vegetable market would be reduced, and the price could go further.

From the predictions given by many agencies, the consensus is expected.

Food week rose steadily in September

As in the past few months, the reason why September CPI is not optimistic is that food prices are still rising.

According to statistics from Ministry of Commerce, from August 29th to September 4th, the average wholesale prices of the 18 kinds of vegetables increased by 1.5% over the previous week, 2.6% from September 5th to September 11th, 3.7% by from September 12th to 18th, and 4.2% by from September 19th to 25th, with the trend of gradual expansion.

Among them, tomatoes, Chinese cabbage and cabbage prices rose to two digits, up 13.6%, 12.7% and 10% respectively.

Last week, except for vegetables, retail prices of cereals and oils also increased slightly.

The trend of meat prices is slightly optimistic. Other than pork prices falling by 0.6%, other gains are also weakening.

However, some analysts pointed out that consumption of beef and mutton began to enter the peak season, and pork consumption was relatively prosperous, mainly due to the "stickup autumn fat" in the northern region.

In September, strong demand will make it difficult to stop the trend of rising food prices.

"Overall, the price of the Ministry of agriculture rose by 1.7% in the first 4 weeks of September compared with the mean value in August, and the food price in the first 3 weeks of the Ministry of Commerce rose by 1.9% compared with the mean value in August. The Bureau of food statistics in the first quarter of August increased 2.2% compared with the mean value in August.

It is estimated that in September, the price of food in CPI increased by 1%, or 13.2%.

Li Xunlei, chief economist of Guotai Junan, said (micro-blog).

In addition, the pace of the rise in non food prices has not slowed down.

Taking the rent as an example, the data released by Beijing Zhongyuan Real estate show that in September, the rental index of middle and high grade housing in Beijing was 145.91, and the average rent of the unit was 53.35 yuan / square meter / month, up 0.57%, up 3.80% from the same period last year.

CPI will remain at a high level in September.

Since July, when CPI hit a high of 6.5% over the same period in July, it is widely believed that the CPI increase will gradually decline.

But the rising prices in September have also challenged the previous judgement. Many agencies believe that CPI will exceed 6.2% in August. In September, the price is high.

Lu Zheng commissar, chief economist of Xingye Bank (micro-blog) told the daily economic news reporter that in August, the rise in food prices could be around 1.2%. The non food prices rose by about 0.4%, and the CPI growth in September was 0.5% to 0.8%, with a median value of 0.65%.

He believes that as the September year-end factor is expected to decline by 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points compared with last month, it is estimated that CPI will rise to 6.2% to 6.4% in September, with a median value of 6.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month.

CICC's judgement is exactly the same as that of Lu Commissar.

The company's report also said that CPI rose by 6.2% to 6.4% in September.

According to the report, the rising price of food in the first three weeks of September is seasonal, mainly reflecting the pulling effect of food demand on the eve of the Mid Autumn Festival and national day.

By the end of September, food prices are expected to fall significantly, and the growth rate may be as high as 1.5% to 2%.

However, Li Xunlei still insisted that the CPI rose by about 6% in September, of which food prices rose by 13.2% compared to the same period last year, and non food prices increased by 2.9% over the same period last year.

He said that prices in July have reached the peak of the year, and the trend of future inflation is basically determined.

In the short term, the rate of inflation will be slower than expected. In September, CPI will still be at a high level of 6%, and it will probably fall to 5.4% in October, and it is expected to further fall below 5% after November.

"In the long run of labor costs, the hovering of international commodity prices still high, the long-term mechanism for government regulation and control needs to be perfected and the domestic inflation expectations still strong, the price drop may be limited during the year," Tang Jianwei, an analyst at the Bank of China Center, showed that the current inflation pressure was mainly due to the fact that the tail factor had dropped, and that the 11~12 CPI rose by 4% over the same period. The average annual CPI growth is expected to be 5.2%.