The New Year's Annual Price Turning Point Gradually Shows &Nbsp; The Five Major Control Measures The Cooling Property Market.

Since its introduction in September 29, 2010, the five most stringent "new countries" in history have been called "five weapons", such as purchase restriction, loan limit, property tax, affordable housing, supervision and accountability, etc., and have played a positive role in the regulation of the property market. Experts interviewed by reporters said that in the past year, under the influence of these regulatory policies, the property market turnover has shrunk sharply, and the trend of excessive housing prices has been curbed. Especially in the first tier cities, housing prices have been rising for two consecutive months. Although the price of the two or three tier cities is still rising, the increase is narrowing. housing price Inflection point Gradually approaching.

Adjustment of demand and sharp reduction of housing prices

According to "new" Five China Article "stipulates that in a city with high housing prices, too fast rising, and tight supply, it is necessary to limit the number of households to buy houses in a certain period of time, and then purchase more than 20 cities. In January 2011, the general office of the State Council issued the notice on further improving the regulation and control of the real estate market. The municipalities directly under the central government, the planned cities and the provincial capital cities and the cities with high housing prices and fast rising prices must strictly formulate and implement the measures to restrict the purchase of housing in a certain period. 43 cities were subsequently restricted.

Over the past year, under the influence of the "restriction order", the demand has dropped sharply, and the prices of the restricted cities and the non restricted cities have been uneven.

According to Weiye, I love my home market research institute data. In the first half of this year, the volume of new commercial housing volume in all the cities nationwide showed a significant decline, with the volume of the first tier cities decreasing by 29.3% and the second tier cities within the scope of the purchase restriction by 23.3%.

In July, the Executive Council of the State Council requested that the two or three line cities with excessive rise in housing prices should take the necessary restriction measures. The two or three line city restriction order makes the market wait-and-see sentiment more suspicious, and the property market "red September" is no longer in sight. China Index Research Institute (micro-blog) statistics show that over the past two weeks, more than 20 cities and 35 cities have reduced the volume of property transactions, and the turnover of more than 12 cities has dropped by more than 30%. Of the key cities monitored last week, only Wuhan increased year-on-year, and the rest of the cities were trading year-on-year. Fall In addition to Shenzhen, Chongqing dropped by more than 50% year-on-year.

Yang Hongxu, Minister of the comprehensive research department of Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute (micro-blog), told reporters in an economic reference daily that the turning point of house prices is becoming more and more apparent. The statistics of the National Bureau of statistics show that the first tier cities have been rising for two consecutive months in August, and the two or three line cities are also close to stepping into the "stop up" range. Among them, the ring street price of newly built commercial housing in the first tier cities is unchanged from July, while the second tier cities have a 0.02% increase in the price of new commercial housing, while the increase in the price of newly built commercial housing in the three line cities is 0.01%. He expects that the price of new commercial housing in the one or two and three tier cities in September will decrease.

Strained listed housing companies have high average liabilities.

With the limited loan and the lack of capital withdrawal, coupled with limited financing channels and high financing costs, the capital chain of real estate enterprises is gradually being pressurized.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from 1 to August, the real estate development enterprises had a source of 54738 billion yuan this year, an increase of 23.4% over the same period. Domestic loans amounted to 888 billion 900 million yuan, an increase of 5.1% over the same period last year, and the utilization of foreign capital was 63 billion 300 million yuan, an increase of 71.5% over the same period last year, and self financing of 22253 billion yuan, an increase of 33.8% over the same period last year.

With the constant tightening of funds, the performance of housing companies is also declining. According to Wind statistics, according to the industry classification of Shen Yi class, as of September 29th, 11 of the 33 listed housing enterprises that had issued three quarter earnings forecasts increased by three in the three quarter, accounting for 33%. Including the sunshine shares (3.90, -0.13, -3.23%) and other 5 enterprises, the three quarter results were pre reduced, and net profit decreased by more than 60%. There were 7 losses. Among them, Xinmao Technology (5.57, -0.20, -3.47%) suffered the first loss, with a loss of 58 million yuan, and its net profit fell 1229.81%.

GF Securities (30.79,0.00,0.00%) (micro-blog), according to the mid term performance report released by Real Estate Company listed in 2011, pointed out that in the first half of this year, the average asset liability ratio of China's housing enterprises was 75.3%, hitting a high level in the past 5 years. The total liabilities of A share listed housing enterprises reached 1 trillion and 92 billion 143 million yuan, up 41.29% over the same period last year. According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real estate, the leverage ratio of China's housing enterprises has reached 2.46 in the first 8 months of this year, which has reached a new low of nearly 5 years.

Lu Qilin, micro-blog research director, said in an interview with the economic reference daily that one of the main reasons leading to the high debt situation at present is that quite a few developers lack corresponding policy expectations. On the other hand, developers blindly pursue high returns and high profits. From the present point of view, developers' death is not a good choice, and price reduction is one of the effective ways to facilitate effective transactions. In the next period of time, developers should increase the intensity of push and discount sales.

Start the pilot reform of property tax in Shanghai and Chongqing

29 days ago, the media disclosed that Huang Qifan, mayor of Chongqing, said in an interview that Chongqing was the only city in the big city that did not take the purchase restriction, because the property tax had already played a role. Chongqing's housing prices had been in the rankings of 70 big and medium cities in the whole country for a long time. At this time, the relevant ministries and commissions of the state clearly accelerated the pilot work of real estate tax reform and gradually extended to the whole country for a whole year.

In the evening of January 27th this year, Shanghai and Chongqing announced that they would officially launch a pilot project on the Levy of property tax on some personal housing from 28.

An Tifu, a professor at the Finance College of Renmin University of China, said that the reform of property tax will help to establish the main tax source for local governments, help local governments get rid of their excessive reliance on land sales, and more importantly, reform will play a certain role in regulating the real estate market to a certain extent, which will increase the cost of holding houses for homebuyers and help to combat speculative investment demand.

Quite a few people expect that the property tax reform can make house prices quickly return to rational and curb real estate overheating. However, Sun Gang, a research fellow of the Tax Policy Research Institute of the finance and Economics Department, told reporters earlier that the hope was more related to housing prices. Now, this hope may be overestimated. I also need to have a new understanding of the effect of property tax, and the policy needs further improvement. An Tifu also said that from the perspective of regulating housing prices, property tax can play a role, but its role is limited.

Housing and housing need to improve laws and regulations.

According to the data released recently by the national statistical data, the national security housing starts up to 86% this year from 1 to August. According to this progress, this year's 10 million sets of affordable housing starts are not difficult to achieve. According to the National Bureau of statistics, from 1 to August, the total investment in commercial housing development increased by 33.2% compared to the same period last year, and the new area of commercial housing grew by 25.8% over the same period last year. Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of new housing starts has been maintained at a high level, and the construction of affordable housing has become one of the most important driving factors.

Experts believe that speeding up the construction of indemnificatory housing is a long-term solution to realize the housing return property. The increase in the number of affordable housing, including public rental housing, will help curb the excessive rise in housing prices and improve the contradiction between supply and demand. In fact, in order to increase the construction of affordable housing, urge local governments to implement policies and encourage enterprises to participate in the construction of affordable housing, the government has promulgated some policies and measures concerning land, financing, tax concessions, etc. these policies have been timely and intensified, and measures have been more specific, which play a positive role in the construction of affordable housing in China. However, our affordable housing needs to be perfected in terms of laws, systems and policies.

According to the previous report issued by the China Index Research Institute, this is mainly manifested in several aspects: first, there is no legal guarantee for the construction of affordable housing in China. Our country has not yet implemented the housing security law. Every local government has no legal restrictions on building affordable housing, and the administrative assessment mechanism is not perfect.

Secondly, the construction and management mechanism of affordable housing is not perfect. At present, the construction of affordable housing in China has no clear maturity mode, lack of system design, the protection of housing operation and management mechanism is not perfect, there are few policies involved in this area, and local governments, real estate development enterprises, financial institutions and other related institutions are not actively exploring.

The industry also pointed out that there are still many loopholes in the quality supervision of affordable housing in some places, and the supervision work is arduous and urgent. In terms of quality assurance, we must formulate relevant policies, clarify regulatory departments and related responsibilities, and take effective regulatory measures.

The promotion of accountability has not yet played a significant role.

When the "new country five item" was promulgated, it was necessary to strictly implement the accountability system, and the relevant responsible persons who failed to carry out the regulation and control policies well enough to work effectively were interviewed until they were held accountable.

This was once regarded as the most severe of the five new nations. But what puzzled the outside world was that officials who had been held accountable because of soaring housing prices did not see them. Insiders say frankly that it is still difficult to implement the regulatory policy through the accountability system until prices fall.

In 7 and August this year, the two or three line cities had spawned a new round of "two or three line restriction order" because of the excessive price rise. The Ministry of housing has placed some two or three tier cities on the restriction list and intends to interview the responsible persons in these cities. But the list was later confirmed by the Ministry of housing.

Li Guoping, chairman of micro-blog high tech consultant, told the economic reference daily that the accountability mechanism played a role in the implementation of regulatory policies, because the housing prices in the first tier cities had been basically suppressed. But overall, the role of accountability is still limited.

Li Guoping believes that in addition to the lack of clear standards and objectives, there are some contradictions in the accountability system itself. "The market conditions in different regions are different and relatively complex, so it is difficult to have unified standards and targets. At the level of implementation, local governments have great freedom. From the recent two or three cities in the implementation of the new round of restriction policy on the conflict and game attitude, we can see that the accountability system is helpless and powerless.