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Textile And Apparel: Season Changing Brand Competition

2011/10/12 11:15:00 35

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Textile And Apparel Changing Season Brand Competition

Market review: the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen stock index and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 6.83%, 9.02% and 8.30% respectively this month.

Textile and garment sector failed to extend earlier this month.

Quotation

The adjustment is down by 10.08%, which is in line with the summary of our daily report, that is, the cumulative stock price of the industry is too high, and the short-term performance is not enough to support the valuation.

trend

There is a risk that the plate will move down.

As of the announcement period, we released the "buy" rating of the nine kings and the search for the first self assessment commentary, the cumulative increase of 24.88%, 3.81%, far exceeding the plate, the same period in the market.

Industry tracking: raw materials

Price

Picked up slightly.

This month, the 328 cotton price index rebounded, or 3.64%, and the US cotton spot Cotlook:A index fell by 2.77%, taking into account the country's 19800 yuan / ton purchase and storage price. It has been decided that it will help to prevent excessive cotton prices from being concentrated on the new cotton market. We expect cotton prices to stabilize in the next year.

The price of chemical fiber raw materials increased slightly, polyester filament POY and polyester staple fiber increased by 1.04% and 3.99% respectively, viscose filament and viscose staple fiber increased by 0.48% and 5.04% respectively, and the price of acrylic staple was unchanged from last month.

The upstream manufacturing side is slowing down.

2011, 1-8, China

Spin

The total fixed assets investment in clothing, shoes and hat manufacturing industry reached 136 billion 329 million yuan, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate increased from 6% in February 2009 to 42.1% at present, but the growth rate dropped 44.1% percentage points from the same month last month. The industry still showed a strong degree of prosperity, but the growth rate slowed slightly.

In August, China's garment production was 2 billion 250 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.8%, compared with last year's 20.78% year-on-year growth rate, which was the lowest since May last year.

The volume of retail sales of the major retail enterprises in China has seen negative year-on-year growth for the first time in recent months, and the characteristics of consumers' rational consumption are highlighted.

This month, the volume of retail sales of all kinds of clothing in 100 major large retail enterprises decreased by 1.98% compared with the same period last year, the first decline in garment retail sales in recent months.

Most of the major commodities showed negative year-on-year growth, while anti season.

clothing

For example, the winter clothing continued to grow, and retail sales grew by 4.9% over the same period last year.

Most of the apparel retail sales showed a decline year by year, especially the women's retail sales which had always been stable. Compared with the same period last year, they also showed a decline. This shows that consumers' consumption intention has been affected to a certain extent under the pressure of rising clothing prices, while the year-on-year growth of anti season clothing shows that the characteristics of consumers' rational consumption are further highlighted.

Investment advice:

(1) the price increase factor in the second half of 2011 still exists. The profit rate and price increase of autumn winter clothing are even more than that of spring and summer wear. Therefore, the overall growth rate of the industry in the second half of the year is expected to continue to maintain a good momentum in the first half of the year.

But the price increase factor in 2012 is weaker than that in 2011, especially for casual wear and home textile industry.

At the same time, the cost of raw materials and the price rigidity of brand clothing will enhance the gross margin level of the industry in 2012, so the profit growth rate should be higher than that of sales revenue.

Therefore, we can judge that the time window from the end of 2011 to the annual report will be the best opportunity for the textile and apparel industry to perform.

Current industry overall investment recommendations

maintain

"Overweight".

(2) it is recommended to focus on the order meeting situation from 8 to October.

Historical experience shows that the annual performance of brand enterprises in textile and garment industry can be more than half of the order of futures orders. Therefore, we suggest that we focus on the details of subsequent orders.

Considering the inventory risk, the seasonal characteristics of the industry and the concerns of the enterprises and franchisees about the inventory, we will be optimistic and cautious about the next year's spring and summer product orders.

(3) at the company level, we propose to focus on the listed companies that still have the valuation advantage and future growth.

We will continue to recommend the listed companies with high growth in the future: Nine Mu Wang, search for special and Meng Jie home textiles.

Risk Disclosure: export retreat

tax rate

Adjustment, channel cost increase, enterprise going stock and ordering will be lower than expected, accompanied by the risk of downvaluation of the market, and some recent companies' lifting the risk.