Report On The Garment Industry Prosperity Index In The Three Quarter

The report on the prosperity index of the apparel industry shows that in the three quarter of 2011, the prosperity index of China's clothing industry was 99.5 points, a slight increase of 0.1 points over the previous quarter, and the warning index of the clothing industry was 103.3 points, down 16.7 points from the previous quarter.

Warning light map

The early warning lamp number is the state of some important indicators that describe the development of the industry by means of traffic lights. The red light is too fast (overheating), the yellow light is fast (partial heat), the green light is normal and stable, the light blue light is slow (partial cold), the blue light is too slow (too cold), the different index is given to the single indicator lamp, and the comprehensive warning index aggregated by it is also shown by 5 light areas, meaning the same as above.

Judging from the production and operation of garment manufacturing industry, the three quarter,

Fourth quarter, the domestic industrial restructuring task is tightening.

Industry boom picked up slightly

Prosperity: slight concussion upward

In the three quarter of 2011, the prosperity index of the Chinese clothing industry was 99.5 points (the growth rate of =100 in 2005), a slight increase of 0.1 points over the previous quarter.

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Sales revenue of garment manufacturing industry

In the 6 indicators of the clothing industry's prosperity index (excluding seasonal factors and retention of random factors), 2 indicators increased faster than the previous quarter, that is, clothing exports and garment manufacturing workers. The 4 indicators grew slightly slower than the previous quarter, that is, the sales revenue, total profit, total tax and total investment in fixed assets of garment manufacturing industry.

After further elimination of random factors, the three quarter of 2011

Total profit of garment manufacturing industry

Early warning: down to "green light district"

In the three quarter of 2011, the early-warning index of the apparel industry was 103.3 points, down 16.7 points faster than the previous quarter, from the "yellow light area" where the economy is running too hot, to the middle and upper location of the "green light district" which shows the normal operation of the economy.

Lights: from "yellow" to "green"

In the three quarter of 2011, the warning signal of the garment industry was changed from "yellow light" to "green light" in the previous quarter.

Of the 10 indicators (excluding seasonal factors and retaining random factors), there are 3 indicators in the "blue light district", namely, clothing production, clothing manufacturing industry personnel and garment manufacturing industry capital occupancy (reverse); there are 1 indicators in the "light blue light district", that is, garment manufacturing receivables (reverse); there are 1 indicators in the "green light district", that is, the total amount of clothing manufacturing tax; 2 indicators are located in the "yellow light district", that is, clothing export volume and total profit; there are 3 indicators in the "red light district", namely producer price index, producer price index, product sales income and total investment in fixed assets. Early-warning index of garment industry

From the change of the lamp number, compared with the two quarter, the 5 quarter of the clothing industry early warning index in the three quarter has changed, among which the garment export volume has increased from "green light" to "yellow light"; the other 4 indicators have dropped, that is, the clothing manufacturing industry's capital occupation (reversal) has fallen from "light blue light" to "blue light". The total profit from the "red light" has fallen from "red light" to "yellow light". The total tax revenue of the garment manufacturing industry has been reduced from "yellow light" to "green light". The biggest change is the receivables (reverse) of the garment manufacturing industry, and the "red light" of the two quarter has fallen to the "blue light" of this quarter.

The remaining 5 indicators remain unchanged.

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Total profit of garment manufacturing industry

Increase in production and increase the total loss

Production: improved, but still cold.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, China's clothing output in the three quarter of 2011 was 6 billion 678 million, down 7.6% from the same period last year, but the decline narrowed by 29.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, a significant increase of 55.3% over the previous quarter, compared with a decrease of 51.2% in the previous quarter.

In the three quarter, garment production improved slightly. In the two quarter, the year-on-year rate of decline and the rate of decline were slightly lower than those at the lowest level in history. The company's orders, especially large enterprises, were in good order in the first half of the year, which helped arrange production and the clothing companies entered the production season of autumn and winter ahead of schedule.

But we should see that the obvious increase in the clothing production in the three quarter is only a resumption of recovery based on the low base of the two quarter.

But overall, the production of clothing industry in China in the three quarter is still cold.

The main reasons are: first, foreign demand is sluggish, especially in Europe and the United States; the two is the sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, the high cost of labor costs and capital costs of enterprises, causing enterprises to dare to take longer orders and larger orders under the conditions of rising costs and uncertain prospects. Three, it is difficult for some SMEs to survive.

Ex factory price: keep up high

In the three quarter of 2011, the producer price of garment manufacturers increased by 3.8% over the same period last year, or only the highest level in the first quarter of this year (3.9%).

Since the first quarter of this year, the producer price of garment manufacturers has continued to rise last year and has risen rapidly. The two or three quarter has slowed down, but is still at a high level compared with the historical level.

The producer price of garment manufacturers has been running in the hot red area for 4 consecutive quarters.

Sales: low rise

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the sales revenue of clothing manufacturing industry in the three quarter of 2011 was 368 billion 950 million yuan, an increase of 23.7% over the same period last year, an increase of 10 percentage points over the previous quarter, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, compared with a decrease of 29.6% in the previous quarter.

In the case of a year-on-year decline in clothing production, sales of products increased considerably, and increased autumn and winter clothing with higher prices and rising factory prices were two important reasons.

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Total profit of garment manufacturing industry

Exports: significant growth over the same period

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the export volume of clothing in the three quarter of 2011 was 48 billion 920 million yuan, an increase of 26.6% over the same period last year. The year-on-year growth rate slowed by 7 percentage points over the previous quarter, and the growth rate was 55.3%, reversing the trend of a three consecutive quarter decline since the fourth quarter of last year.

Since the three quarter of last year, China's clothing exports have been growing at a high speed. However, after excluding domestic production costs and pushing up export prices and RMB appreciation factors, garment production has been declining for the last two quarters, and thus is in the "blue light zone" which is too cold. The contribution of the actual export volume of garment manufacturing industry is not obvious.

In the three quarter, the volume of garment exports increased significantly compared with the year-on-year ratio, mainly due to the rise in clothing export prices.

Considering that the adjustment of European and American economies is inevitable, consumer income expectations are pessimistic, consumer confidence is low, consumer demand is insufficient, and demand for garment orders in the second half of this year is obviously down.

Profit: return on sales to historical average

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total profit of garment manufacturing in the three quarter of 2011 was 16 billion 770 million yuan, up 24% from the same period last year. The year-on-year growth rate was basically the same as that of the previous quarter. The growth rate of the apparel industry was 10%, while the 39.5% quarter of the two quarter decreased by 39.5%.

The total profit growth of garment manufacturing industry was mainly due to the rapid growth of sales revenue. However, by the increase of labor costs, rents, financing costs and RMB appreciation, the three quarter profit growth slowed by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, which was close to the average growth level of history.

In the three quarter, the sales profit margin (gross profit / product sales revenue) of garment manufacturing industry dropped from 5.9% in the first quarter to 4.5%, lower than that of all industrial sales margins (5.9%).

Tax: the year-on-year growth rate is basically the same.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total tax of the garment manufacturing industry in the three quarter of 2011 was 10 billion 50 million yuan, up 23.7% from the same period last year. The year-on-year growth rate was 13.1 percentage points faster than the previous quarter, while the annulus growth rate was 25.2%, while the total tax amount in the two quarter decreased by 42.1%.

Accounts receivable: an increase of 20% over the same period, and the rate of return was basically the same as that of the previous quarter.

In the three quarter of 2011, the accounts receivable of garment manufacturing industry was 103 billion 430 million yuan, an increase of 20.2% over the previous year, an increase of 2.9 percentage points over the previous quarter.

According to the calculation, the receivable turnover days in the three quarter (90* average receivables / quarterly sales revenue) increased from 21.9 days in the previous quarter to 21.93 days in the current quarter, and the rate of return was basically the same as that in the previous quarter.

Finished product capital occupation: high callback

Due to the weak market demand at home and abroad and the poor convergence of upstream and downstream industries, the occupied capital of garment manufacturing industry increased significantly in the three quarter of 2011.

By the end of the three quarter, the expenditure of finished goods in clothing manufacturing industry was 67 billion 500 million yuan, up 28.7% from the same period last year, slowing by 4 percentage points over the previous quarter.

Nevertheless, compared with the historical level, the three quarter clothing inventory year-on-year growth is still at a higher level.

Fixed asset investment: growth rate is down, but it is still hot.

After initial seasonal adjustment, the total investment in fixed assets of garment manufacturing industry in the three quarter of 2011 was 64 billion 440 million yuan, up 59.2% from the same period last year. The year-on-year growth rate dropped 28.2 percentage points faster than that of the previous quarter, which was mainly affected by multiple factors such as tight financial environment and reduced demand for orders, but the growth rate was still at a relatively high level in the previous year.

Number of employees: steady growth

In the three quarter of 2011, the number of employees in garment manufacturing industry was 3 million 703 thousand, an increase of 7.7% over the same period last year, slowing by 0.4 percentage points over the previous quarter.

The scale of employment in garment manufacturing industry has maintained steady growth.

Losses: sharp increase in losses in deficit companies

In the three quarter of 2011, the loss of garment manufacturing industry was 12.6%, narrowing by 1.9 percentage points from the previous quarter, but still slightly higher than the 12.3% level of all industrial losses.

After preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total loss of garment manufacturing enterprises in the three quarter of 2011 was 1 billion 240 million yuan, an increase of 124.7% over the same period, an increase of 100.3% over the same period, and a double increase in the two quarter, a decrease of 28.4% compared to the same period last year, and a decrease of 64.3% over the same period.

Losses in the three quarter were significantly increased.

Judging from the overall operation situation, the garment manufacturing enterprises will face the situation of "strong Heng Qiang and the weak ones eliminated", and the industry shuffle is inevitable.

The loss of clothing manufacturing industry will be further aggravated by the decline in the level of sales profit, the cost of employment, production, pportation and financing.

Industry expectations and recommendations

On the whole, the boom of the garment industry has picked up in the three quarter, and a number of indicators are better than expected. However, there are still some problems such as the cold production of clothing, the further decline in the profit margin of the industry, and the sharp increase in the deficit of the deficit companies.

Looking forward to the four quarter, there are still many uncertainties in the macro environment. Combined with a variety of factors, it is expected that China's garment manufacturing industry will have a downward trend in the four quarter.

The main basis is:

First, the demand is unstable.

On the international side, following the worsening of the European debt crisis, the US debt crisis followed, exacerbating the market's concerns about the global economic outlook, and its chain reaction needs further observation.

At home, the first is that inflation pressure has not been effectively alleviated, and the slow growth of domestic residents' income has brought about hidden worries for the sustained growth of domestic demand. Two, in terms of foreign trade export orders, the traditional and developed market purchasers in Europe and the United States and Japan have had limited growth in export trading at this spring fair, especially in the textile industry, where the prices of raw materials such as textiles and clothing have dropped.

The two is financing difficulties.

The policy of tightening money and increasing interest rates has made enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, face financing difficulties, especially in this year.

Only about 10% of SMEs can get loans from the formal banking system. Most enterprises are unable to borrow money or turn to private lending. The high interest rate and lack of supervision of private lending also make SMEs face greater risks.

The three is the weakening of the price of factory products.

Cotton prices have been on a downward trend since the two quarter.

Starting from September, the temporary purchase and storage of cotton will also affect the fluctuation of cotton prices to a certain extent, and the space for foreign trade customers to accept the price increases will also weaken.

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In order to ensure the healthy operation and good development of the garment manufacturing industry, it is recommended that:

First, formulate and implement various preferential policies to support the development of SMEs, especially in the light of the widespread financing difficulties of SMEs.

It is necessary to support commercial banks to increase loans to small enterprises through risk compensation, financial discount, business tax deduction and so on, expand financing channels for small businesses, and actively strive for special funds for small and medium-sized enterprises in various countries; accelerate the introduction of supporting policies to encourage and guide private investment; pay close attention to capital turnover of enterprises, and take timely measures to prevent the chain breaking and serious consequences caused by mutual delinquency.

Two, we should continue to improve the cotton control system.

The stable price of raw material market is of great significance to the good operation of the textile and garment industry, and the stability of its price depends on the timely introduction of relevant policies and implementation by the relevant functional departments of the state.

It is suggested that the cotton seed subsidy should be strengthened, the cotton temporary purchase and storage policy should be constantly summarized and improved, so as to promote the stable development of the cotton industry, keep the cotton price basically stable and prevent cotton prices from rising and falling.

The three is burden reduction.

When the inflation expectation is high and the economic forecast is down, the government should adopt the method of "letting water and fish culture" in policy support, formulate and implement the tax reduction policy effectively, lighten the unreasonable tax burden of enterprises, and help enterprises effectively cope with the business difficulties.

Compared with the export tax rebate policy, tax relief is a preferential policy, which is conducive to invigorating production and operation.

Note: (1) the clothing industry refers to the textile and garment manufacturing industry in the classification of the national economy. It refers to the activities of sewing all kinds of men's and women's garments and children's garments with the main raw materials of textile fabrics, including garments made of non self produced materials and clothing production of fixed production areas.

2. In 2005, the early-warning lamp in the clothing industry is basically in the green light area, and is relatively stable. Therefore, it has become the base year of the clothing industry's prosperity index.

(3) seasonal factors refer to the effect of the changing seasons on the data, such as the market volume of cold drinks, which fluctuate year by year with the seasons.

4. Random factors are also referred to as irregularities, such as the implementation of new policies, macroeconomic regulation and control, natural disasters and other factors.

Reverse index, also called reverse index, has a reverse effect on the operation of the industry.

The lower the index value is, the better the industry is, and vice versa.