The Textile Industry Is Facing A Vicious Competition Instead Of Exchange Rate.
A share market
Recently, ushered in the good release, Zhang Bin, an analyst of state securities, interpreted the A share market for the four quarter.
investment strategy
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RMB appreciation is not conducive to medium and long term development of textile industry
Regarding the quotations of the textile and garment industry, Zhang Bin said that from a fundamental point of view, it is not yet at the worst time. For manufacturing textile enterprises, there is a serious excess capacity. Before the end of the year, business failures continue to fail. For retail textile enterprises, they maintain sustained growth.
As for the impact of RMB appreciation on the textile and garment industry, Zhang Bin said that appreciation has a unilateral adverse effect on the textile industry.
The export impact is relatively large, but it is more reflected in the medium and long term development. The biggest disadvantage in the short term is the sudden drop in cotton prices and the serious surplus of capacity and industry integration.
There are many manufacturing enterprises such as Lu Tai, Huafu color spinning, hang min shares, etc. most of the companies in the industry are manufacturing classes, but many enterprises have diversified operations.
The adverse effects of revaluation on the industry are medium and long term. The biggest troubles are three. One is a serious surplus of production capacity. One is the finished product inventory backlog caused by the slump of raw materials led by cotton, one is the high price raw materials and the operating cost, pushing up the selling price and restraining domestic consumption demand.
He has been optimistic about domestic textile and garment retail enterprises, such as seven wolves, nine Mu Wang, Luo Lai, Fu Anna, Meng Jie, Wei Xing and so on.
In the four quarter, for manufacturing clothing enterprises, business is still difficult to improve, mainly due to repeated cost pressures and overcapacity, and insufficient demand; for retail apparel enterprises, maintain rapid growth before.
Appreciation is not the most critical factor for enterprises, and its adverse effect is gradually emerging.
For the fourth quarter clothing industry
Quotation
Zhang Bin believes that the annual sales of clothing in winter are the highest throughout the year because of the high unit price. The industry's "spring" should mean the fastest growth.
From the perspective of experience and logic, the annual sale of summer clothing in May is the weathervane of the whole market.
This year, the growth rate of domestic textile and garment retail sales has declined slightly, and this trend may not stop until the first half of next year.
He is most optimistic about the retail sector, although the overall growth rate has declined, but the leading stock market is still good.
Some netizens mentioned a saying: the textile industry is not facing the issue of RMB exchange rate, but vicious competition in the industry.
In this regard, Zhang Bin expressed great agreement.
The industry is in urgent need of integration. It is hoped that the state should not interrupt the integration process and let market factors play its due role.
If the industry consolidation is completed in the past few years, the industry concentration will be appropriately raised. In the long run, it will be beneficial to the development of Weixing and Rutai enterprises.
For textile and garment industry
investment strategy
Zhang Bin said that textile and clothing industry is a fully competitive industry, and the retail enterprises need to study investment ideas from the bottom up. We need to focus on the management capabilities of the enterprises, so I do not agree with the search for the so-called subdivision field from top to bottom.
With regard to listed companies, I look for companies with excellent quality and sound management.
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