Cotton: Or Will Continue To Search For The Bottom

1 / 2011 Global

India's cotton planting area has been increasing in recent years. In 2010, 163 million mu (103 million acres in 1984), the total output of 5 million 220 thousand tons; in 2011 reached 170 million mu, the total output will reach about 5 million 870 thousand tons, an increase of 7% over the same period last year.

With 4 million 460 thousand tons of cotton, it needs to export about 1 million 80 thousand tons.

At present, India has an average yield of only 63 catties per mu. With the continuous growth of output per unit area, the total output of cotton in India in the next few years is likely to surpass China and become the world's largest cotton producing country.

Pakistan has an area of 49 million 500 thousand mu, an increase of 3%, a total output of 2 million 240 thousand tons, an increase of 17% over the same period last year, and a 2 million 240 thousand yuan supply of cotton and a balance of basic supply and demand.

Two, domestic supply and demand situation

According to the China Cotton Association monitoring, in 2011, the total area of cotton planting in China was 80 million 180 thousand mu, which increased by 4.1% compared to the same caliber.

The total output is expected to be 7 million 380 thousand tons, an increase of 11% over the previous year.

The demand for the whole country is about 10 million tons, and there are still nearly 2 million 700 thousand tons of consumption shortfall to be offset by imports.

China, like the United States, is not realistic enough to subsidize cotton farmers, so it will be difficult to grow cotton fields in the future. The area will be maintained at 7000-8000 mu, with a total output of 600-700 tons.

The total demand will remain at 1000-1100 tons.

The gap will exist for a long time, and large quantities of cotton will be imported every year.

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Three, the export volume of US cotton products continued to increase negatively.

According to China Customs data, in August, the total export volume of China's textile products was 25 billion 451 million US dollars, up 26.36% from the same period last year, up 1.35 percentage points from the same period in July, the decrease of 2.10% in the ring ratio, and the relatively stable textile export in August.

On the whole, the total exports of textile products amounted to US $163 billion 163 million in 1-8 months, representing an increase of 25.72% over the same period last year.

Since 2011, the export volume of China's textile industry has maintained an overall growth rate of more than 20% in the same month.

However, the growth of textile exports is mainly from the contribution of textile product price growth.

And if we look at the US market alone, textile exports are not optimistic.

According to the data from the US office of textile and clothing (OTEXA), in July 2011, the number of imports of cotton textile products from China decreased by 18.45% compared with the same period last year, and the eight month negative increase since December 2010, while the import volume of cotton products in July decreased by 2.53%, and two consecutive months.

Four, domestic garment retail growth rate fell.

In August 2011, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needles and textiles in the enterprises above designated size increased by 21.9% compared with the same month last year, and the growth rate dropped by 2.2 percentage points compared with that in July (24.1%).

In August, domestic terminal clothing retail sales growth rate dropped, mainly due to the influence of traditional off-season factors in August.

Further from the value-added growth rate of the three main sub sectors of textile industry, the growth rate of textile, clothing and chemical fiber industry increased by 7.6%, 16.6% and 14.1% in August 2011, respectively. The growth rate increased by -4.0, 2.7 and 12.7 percentage points respectively over the same period last year.

The value-added growth rate of textile industry decreased compared with the same period last year, while the clothing industry changed little, and the chemical fiber industry increased significantly.

The spot price of cotton has continued to decline since 2011 after the big increase in March, which has dropped to more than 10000 yuan / ton, which has seriously damaged the cotton textile industry, thus dragging down the increase in the value added of the textile industry.

While chemical fiber raw materials are affected by the increase of cotton prices, the substitution effect is strengthened, although the price fluctuates, but the range is far less than that of cotton, and the increase of chemical fiber industry is worth improving steadily.

Five, Zhengzhou cotton futures continue to bottom

Zheng cotton's daily line observation, the short term technology KDJ index will also seek to explore bottom, will drive Zheng cotton's price center downward movement.

On the average, the first supporting position of zhengmian Japanese line is 19519; the second supporting position is 19384; the third supporting position is 18272; the first pressure level of zhengmian's daily line is 20390; second pressure level 20795; third pressure level 21132.

Zheng cotton's monthly observation, the monthly KDJ index has been in the low position, the D line index has also been in the vicinity of 25, common sense, when the D line index in the 20 line, will be an absolute safety zone.

The average line system saw that after 6 consecutive days of cotton, the monthly red line was once collected in August, but again in September it was overcast.

From the monthly brin channel line, the Yin line in September broke through the trajectories of brin. If it can not be collected on the middle track in October, the trend of Zheng cotton will enter the long track operation of the middle and lower tracks, and may seek the support of the lower trajectory.

And the future support of the trajectory is between 15000-16000.

From the current price, the market price has a distance of 4000-5000 to get the strong brace of the monthly brin line.

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Six. Analysis of the causes affecting the trend of cotton

Bad:

(1) the growth of global cotton production and the increase in output corresponded to the tightening of market demand caused by the global debt crisis.

(two) whether the US dollar restores appreciation channels.

If the US dollar continues to depreciate, it will increase the global competitiveness of us products.

However, because of the depreciation of the US dollar, the attractiveness of the US investment has been suppressed.

Because the attractiveness of investment in the US decreases, the US dollar can not go back to American investment, and the US real economy can not increase American jobs. This vicious cycle will continue to cause high unemployment in the United States.

Obama, who is eager to seek re-election, will be a heavy blow, which will directly affect the re-election next year.

The appreciation of the US dollar will be inevitable, but the appreciation of the US dollar will directly suppress the price of the bulk market, and the price of cotton will also run downwards.

(three) whether China's economy can succeed in a soft landing.

It is now estimated that China's annual CPI will be around 5.7-6.0.

The government working conference, which was far higher than the beginning of the year, set 4 targets.

In the coming year, China's financial market will continue to have negative interest rates.

This means that the macro economy will not relax its regulation in the future.

Until finance becomes a positive interest rate or 0 interest rate.

Or the CPI value is below 4.

The CPI value is expected to fall back to near 4 in the second half of 2012.

(four) global economic slowdown.

In the global economic outlook report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), IMF sharply lowered global economic growth expectations.

This year, the US economy will grow by only 1.5%, far below the expected 2.5% in June, and next year's economic growth is expected to fall from 2.7% to 1.8%.

The growth rate of the developed economies is down to 1.6% from the previous estimate of 2.2% this year, and the growth rate next year will be reduced to 1.9% from the previous 2.6%.

The growth rate of emerging and developing economies has also been reduced. According to the IMF report, the organization expects that the region's growth rate will reach 6.4% this year and 6.1% next year, with a forecast of 6.6% and 6.4% in June.

IMF also predicts that China's economic growth this year will reach 9.5%, down from 9.6% forecast in June, and the economy will grow 9% next year, which is also lower than the 9.5% forecast in June.

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(five) in 2011, the cotton output of China was estimated to be 7 million 380 thousand tons, up 11% from the same period last year.

The majority of cotton producing countries in the world are abundant, and supply is slightly larger than demand. Cotton prices have a downward pressure.

In 2011, cotton planting area was 80 million 180 thousand mu, an increase of 4.1% over the same period last year.

According to a survey conducted by China Cotton Association in August, it is estimated that 2011 cotton output will reach 7 million 380 thousand tons in the year, up 11% from the same period last year.

Cotton demand is expected to remain at 10 million tons.

There was no increase compared with 2010.

Good:

(1) the next period of time will be the key time point for solving the European debt crisis.

Liquidity will continue in various countries.

Because of the current crisis, western countries have no better solution.

The high welfare causes the western residents to be lazy and enjoy, and the low-level jobs are unoccupied and occupied by the developing countries.

In the western countries, the high salary and white-collar jobs of hi-tech and financial enterprises in the background of slow saturation of investment saturation increase employment difficulties.

This forced the government to continue quantitative easing and force the currency to depreciate.

Continue to create price bubbles.

The value center of commodity currencies will be too high and the price will be hard to fall.

(two) whether the US QE3 will be introduced and released.

The two successive quantitative easing policies launched by the United States have led to a significant depreciation of the US dollar.

But in the case of the European debt crisis, the security of US dollar assets appears.

The Fed's currency has been heavily stocking the rest of the world.

Still, the US dollar is short of money and the money supply is insufficient.

It is difficult to save the US economy.

The introduction of QE3 in the future will be accompanied by the Fed's interest rate increase in order to attract foreign investment and currency to stay at home.

The US dollar will depreciate in the interest rate hike, and will continue to support the high price of commodities.

(three) the soft landing of the domestic economy was successful. The domestic GDP data in the three quarter was 9.1, and the signs of soft landing of the economy began to appear.

China's soft landing will succeed in the coming year, and domestic macro finance will relax its policy.

A new round of economic growth will be launched.

(four) in the future, China is unlikely to subsidize cotton farmers in a big way like the United States. So cotton growing area will be difficult to grow in the future. The area will be maintained at about 80 million mu, and the total output will be 7 million tons.

The total demand will remain at 1000-1100 tons.

The gap will exist for a long time, and large quantities of cotton will be imported every year.