In October, CPI Rose Or Fell Significantly &Nbsp, Expected To Grow By 5.5% Over The Same Period Last Year.

The National Bureau of statistics will announce the October residents on 9 th. consumption Price index (CPI). It is widely expected that with the reduction of the tail factor and the fall in food prices, the CPI growth in October will decline significantly, with a year-on-year increase of around 5.5%.

Yuan Gangming, a researcher at the Institute of macroeconomics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told reporters that the fall of CPI in September to 6.1% has marked the establishment of inflationary inflection points. Price Down, it is expected that CPI growth in October will fall to around 5.5%.

According to the National Bureau of statistics, the main food prices in 50 cities across the country data In late October, prices of vegetables and meat and eggs continued to fall. Among them, vegetable prices fell significantly, cabbage fell 10.2%, rape and celery prices fell more than 7.5%. The same trend is also reflected in the Ministry of Commerce's high frequency monitoring data, data show that in from October 24th to 30th week, the key monitoring of the price of edible agricultural products continued to fall. Among them, the average wholesale price of the 18 vegetables decreased by 2.2% compared with the previous week, the average wholesale price of the 8 aquatic products dropped by 1%, the pork and eggs decreased by 1% and 0.6% respectively, and the price of the white chicken decreased by 0.1%.

Societe Generale Securities predicts that the CPI growth will fall to 5.4% in October under the influence of food price fall, while the PPI index will fall to 6.5% after being weakened by weak economic activities. UBS Securities is expected to be lower. UBS Securities in its report pointed out that due to the fall in food and upstream product price pressures, CPI growth is expected to further decline to 5.3% in October and fall to below 4.5% at the end of the year.

In addition to the decline in food prices and effectively easing inflationary pressure, Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, also pointed out that "the international commodity price pullback will also help to reduce the pressure of imported inflation in China. In the past two months, the tail factor will gradually decrease, and the fourth quarter price increase will show a further downward trend".

Lian Ping said that the CPI rose by about 4% in December, and the annual CPI rose by about 5.5%.

Peng Sen, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, once attended the "Ninth China Reform Forum" in Beijing in October 22nd. He said that since August, the overall price level has begun to fall, and CPI rose by 6.1% in September, and 5.7% in 1-9 months. The inflection point characteristics of price movements have been confirmed during the year, and the CPI increase is expected to be controlled below 5% in the first two months of this year.