International Cotton Prices Are On A Wait-And-See Attitude, "Increasing Concentration".

Last week (10.31-11.4), international cotton The futures market first fell and then stabilized. The main contract in December fell below 1 dollars and was supported by 98 cents, and the spot market was weak because of the low consumption atmosphere. The repeated solution of the European debt crisis has put pressure on the entire financial and commodity markets.

1. ICE cotton.

In the week, ICE cotton futures averaged 99.41 cents per pound in December, compared with the previous week. Fall The 192 point. In the first four trading days, the market continued to fall, and the key of $1 was lost again. The last trading day was supported by 98 cents in school uniform. Rise Collect.

Investors were worried about the feasibility of the scheme. On Monday, international commodity prices and financial markets were once again frustrated. At the end of the month, investors adjusted their positions to bring ICE cotton down 2.08 cents to 102.29 cents / pounds, ending 6 consecutive days of gains; the decline in Tuesday and Wednesday markets had not changed; the market was almost down, the Greek government would hold a referendum on the European debt crisis solution, investors kept a wait-and-see attitude; the market overall rose, and the fundamentals and the economy were not good. The G20 summit of the market was able to disappoint the hopes of reaching some major programmes for the resolution of the European debt problem. The G20 summit had limited results, and few countries were committed to participate in the euro rescue fund. On Monday, the market was not optimistic about the EU's solution to European sovereign debt crisis. The news of cotton itself is dull, and the rebound of ICE cotton futures is also technical.

Two, spot market.

The weekly CotlookA index averaged 109.72 cents per pound, up 62 points from the previous week, and the average price of the imported cotton price index FCIndexM week was 114.03 cents / pound, down 49 points.

Last week, the spot market declined as a whole, and textile enterprises mainly followed purchase. Domestic cotton prices have dropped, textile enterprises and traders have lost interest in foreign cotton purchasing, and the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude. In 2010, the quasi tax quotas need to be used up by the end of the year, and the 1% quota needs to be used up before the end of February.

Three, market dynamics.

According to ICAC (International Cotton Advisory Committee), the slowdown in global economic growth will affect the consumption of textiles. As cotton prices rose to historic highs, global cotton consumption in 2010/11 decreased by 3% to 24 million 490 thousand tons over the same period last year. This year's consumption will be affected by the consumption of textiles. At present, many textile mills are facing financial problems caused by high cotton prices in the previous year.

According to the US Department of agriculture (USDA) report, the United States signed a net signing of this year's 20865 tons of land cotton and 20457 tons of shipment for 10.22-10.27 a week. Net signed this year is 1043 tons of Pima cotton and 23 tons of shipment; net signing of 2012/13 17894 tons of upland cotton. China signed a net contract of 6124 tons of land cotton this year.

According to unofficial sources, the India Cotton Advisory Committee (CAB) will hold a meeting in November 15th to forecast the supply and demand of cotton this year. According to local media in India, the output of Gujarat in India's largest production area will increase significantly this year. The cotton planting area in this region is 2 million 960 thousand hectares, up 13% from 2 million 630 thousand hectares in the previous year. Mr. DilipPatel, President of the Gujarat Processing Association, pointed out that the production of Gujarat could reach 12 million packages (2 million 40 thousand tons) this year, up from 10 million packs (1 million 700 thousand tons) in the previous year. The total area of the country is about 36 million packs (6 million 120 thousand tons) and 33% of Gujarat. Last year, India produced 5 million 525 thousand tons and Gujarat accounted for 30.8%.

Recently, the weather in the Australian cotton producing area is fine. The abnormal cold weather in the early stage has caused some cotton fields to be replanted, with a ratio of about 10%. Rainfall in non irrigated areas is higher than the average level in previous years, but more precipitation is needed to ensure the smooth planting of cotton. It is estimated that sowing in irrigation and non irrigated areas will last until the end of November, and the total output is expected to reach 5 million or 1 million 140 thousand tons.

Four, market outlook.

The ICE cotton contract has fluctuated around us $1 in December. The contract has been more active with the March contract extension transaction. It has become pressure on the recent contracts and is concerned about 97.35 US branches.

In the spot market, China's current procurement is not active, mainly in the digestion of cotton in Hong Kong. The market is concerned about the first batch of quota quotas next year.