Cotton Purchase And Storage Are Also &Nbsp.

After October, this year's cotton Production is a foregone conclusion. In the late October, the national cotton production situation analysis, which was held in Jiuquan, Gansu, will send out information. This year, cotton production in China has shown a pattern of "three increase and one fall", that is, the area enlargement, the increase in unit production, the increase in total output and the decrease in prices. Because Price Slipped cotton growers are affected by the current cotton growers. Reluctant sale Serious. The agricultural sector at the grassroots level is worried that price fluctuations will affect cotton cultivation next year.

XI: the "three good" situation that has not been seen for many years

Our country is basically divided into three major cotton regions: the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, and the northwest inner cotton region. In October 18th, when the Ministry of Agriculture held the national cotton production situation analysis conference in Jiuquan, the representatives of 16 provinces and municipalities in three cotton regions all indicated that this year is a rare "three good" year for cotton production in China. Ceng Yande, inspector of the Department of crop management of the Ministry of agriculture, said that there was a good situation of enlarging area, increasing output and improving quality.

Last year, cotton purchase price rose, and in March this year, the state announced the cotton temporary purchase and storage price in advance. Two factors boosted cotton planting this year. The author learned from the Jiuquan conference that the cotton planting area of the 16 main cotton producing areas showed an increasing trend this year. China's cotton "half of the country" of Xinjiang, this year reached an area of 23 million 650 thousand acres, an increase of 13% over the same period, becoming the country's largest area of cotton production area.

Mao Shuchun, a researcher at the Cotton Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that the cotton planting area in China has shown a restorative growth this year. According to the China Cotton Association, the cotton planting area is about 80 million 180 thousand mu this year, an increase of 4.1% over the same period last year.

Cotton production has also increased this year. The Xinjiang production and Construction Corps expects the average yield of lint 156 kg / mu, an increase of 2 kg over the previous year. The output of the economic crops Department of the Hunan Provincial Department of agriculture showed that cotton production per unit area was more than 96 kilograms, an increase of 6 kilograms over the previous year. Sichuan cotton yield per mu increased by 8 kilograms compared with the same period last year, an increase of 13.3%.

The increase in yield per unit area has promoted the increase of cotton output in the whole country. According to the news from the Jiuquan conference, the output of three cotton producing areas in China has shown an increasing trend this year. In October 25th, the China Cotton Association announced that the total output of cotton will reach 7 million 280 thousand tons this year, of which the total output of cotton in Xinjiang will reach 3 million 425 thousand tons, an increase of 17.4% over the previous year.

I understand that this year's cotton production, from the cotton growth and development process, most cotton areas in the early stage of cotton seedlings and seedlings in the whole, the growth and development of medium and high heat and light, suitable for precipitation, no major natural disasters, cotton field pests and diseases are lighter, so cotton in the middle and the long term steady growth, put up a high yield shelf. Suitable climate plus the promotion of improved varieties make cotton quality more than any year. According to the Institute of Cotton Research of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, the quality of cotton is the best in recent 10 years.

Worry: prices drop, cotton farmers are reluctant to sell.

Compared with the high price of cotton last year, cotton prices are not attractive this year. The sharp drop in prices has led to slow progress in cotton sales nationwide.

According to the data of the Cotton Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, by October 31st, the price of seed cotton in China was 8 yuan / kg, compared with 10.98 yuan per kilogram last year. Among them, the price of seed cotton in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, cotton in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, and cotton in the northwest of China decreased by 26%, 23.7% and 31.5% respectively. The chain ratio is also down, and the three cotton regions have decreased by 1%, 1% and 10% respectively. Due to the low purchase price, the sale is not active, and the peak season is not prosperous.

According to the analysis, the price of seed cotton is also related to the low price of cottonseed. Last year, cottonseed price was 3 - 3.4 yuan / kg, which dropped to 2.1 yuan / kg this year, a decrease of 33% - 41%.

I understand that the progress of seed cotton harvesting in the whole country is faster than that of last year, but the progress of sale is slow. According to the data of the Cotton Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, by October 31st, the harvest rate of cotton seed cotton in the whole country was 83.9%, which was 6.6 percentage points faster than that of the previous year, and accelerated by 8.5%. However, seed cotton sale is slow. By October 31st, the turnover rate of cotton seed sale in the whole country was 37.8%, which was 8.2 percentage points slower than the same period last year, and slowed down by 17.8%. This result shows that the market waits for sentiment, and farmers expect the price to be reasonable. Mao Shuchun believes that the low price is the main reason for slow progress in cotton sale.

According to the analysis of the Jiuquan conference, the decline in prices led to a sharp decline in the income of farmers' cotton planting, coupled with the continuous growth of production costs, and the weakening of the marginal benefit of cotton planting.

I understand that since the beginning of this year, the price of fertilizer and other means of production has risen sharply, and the cost of picking up flower workers has increased year by year. At present, the seed cotton harvest price of Xinjiang has reached 2 yuan / kg. According to the survey conducted in Hubei Province, the average amount of physical and chemical input of cotton has reached 474.92 yuan this year, an increase of 11.4%. According to statistics from Jiangsu Province, the cost of planting cotton per mu is 1576 yuan this year, an increase of 30% over the same period last year. The cost of cotton production in Xinjiang has reached more than 1700 yuan, and the yield of cotton planting has decreased by 45% compared with that in 2003. The increase in cotton production is obviously less than the cost growth rate. The agricultural sector at the basic level thinks that the cost of cotton planting has increased year by year, which partly offset the benefits brought by the state support policy.

Jiangsu agriculture and animal husbandry department analysis that the sharp decline in prices, coupled with the quality of cotton this year is obviously better than last year, and cotton farmers have a certain distance between expectations, cotton farmers are mostly cotton wait-and-see. In Hunan, most farmers think that the quality of cotton is better this year than that of last year. When they are dried, they are stored at home, waiting for high prices.

In addition to waiting for cotton growers to wait and see, Mao Shuchun believes that the acquisition processing enterprises are not active, bearish market to avoid risks.