Quanzhou Shoe Clothing Exports Or Continued Downturn In Controversy

At present, whether the European debt crisis is evolving, whether it will bring more countries such as Italy and Spain into the water is still unknown.

Future external demand or continuing downturn

Experts predict that the export growth rate in the fourth quarter will fall significantly, with a year-round increase of 18%.

Shen Danyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, said recently that the situation of import and export in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year will be very severe due to the changes in the environment at home and abroad, especially the unstable and uncertain factors affecting China's foreign trade development in recent months.

"Taking into account factors such as cost and exchange rate, base and other factors, it is estimated that annual import and export growth will show a trend of high before and after low."

Shen Danyang said.

The tightening of the foreign trade situation is also reflected in the PMI index.

The industry believes that in October, China's PMI export orders index was 48.6%, down from 2.3 percentage points last month, indicating that China's manufacturing export growth was weak.

The OECD comprehensive leading indicator has also continued to fall in recent years, indicating that export growth may continue to decline in the coming months, and exports will face greater challenges in the fourth quarter.

The trend of the European debt crisis may largely determine the change of external demand.

According to British media, the latest assessment of Greece's prospects by a "three carriages" from the euro zone (the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission) has shown that fiscal tightening has put Greece in a more severe recession.

Greece will not resume its economic growth until 2013.

Under the gloomy economic prospect of European countries, countries have begun to gradually implement structural reforms to stimulate economic growth.

Under such circumstances, Greece does not seem to see light in the short term.

What is more serious is the possibility that the European economy will shrink as a result of the debt crisis.

The composite PMI index, which measures the health status of footwear and other manufacturing and service industries in the euro zone, dropped from 49.1 in September to 47.2 in October, further down from 50 of the withered line.

This not only sets the lowest level since July 2009, but also indicates that the euro area economic situation may be worse in the coming months, and the possibility of shrinking in the fourth quarter will be great.

Export of cheap commodities will be blocked.

"The world economy will continue to stagnate or even stagnate.

Even if developed economies temporarily tide over difficulties, the solution of their structural contradictions will require considerable painful adjustment process, and economic growth will stagnate at a lower level.

Huo Jianguo, President of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the world economy will remain the year of adjustment in 2012. It is predicted that in 2012, the global economy will grow by 4%, of which 1.9% in developed countries and 6.1% in emerging economies and developing countries.

The coordination of economic and trade policies among countries is becoming more and more difficult under the situation of increasing risks in the downside of the world economy.

Trade protectionism is showing signs of rising again.

In August 11th, the Ministry of commerce website published an early warning message, which quoted European local media as saying that the EU is preparing to fight against "cheap goods from China" through a high tariff. Recently, the US Senate passed the 2011 currency exchange rate supervision reform bill, trying to force the renminbi to appreciate.

All these will seriously affect the steady growth of China's foreign trade.

The comprehensive operating cost of enterprises will continue to improve.

Huo Jianguo said that the contradiction between the supply and demand of labor in China is still more prominent in the future, and the cost of labor will be improved rapidly.

At the same time, the contradiction between the rigid growth of resources and energy demand and the limited supply will drive prices of resources, energy and other production factors to continue to rise.

The pressure of RMB appreciation will also continue to increase.

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"Overall, external demand may continue to weaken or slump for some time to come."

Huo Jianguo said that the growth rate of China's exports in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to decline significantly.

The total import and export volume increased by 20% year-on-year, with export growth expected to reach 18%, and the trade surplus will be further narrowed or unchanged from last year.

Can ride the policy "express".

There are many difficulties, but the prospects are not bleak.

Huo Jianguo believes that China's export situation will also face favorable factors in the future.

The adjustment of international economic structure and the rise of developing countries will bring new development space to foreign trade. China's international influence will increase and its trade protectionism will be strengthened. The adjustment and progress of international industry will provide new impetus for the development of foreign trade; China's foreign trade will speed up its pformation and upgrading; the technological level and overall strength of the manufacturing industry will further improve; the central and western regions will deepen their participation in the international division of labor, and their advantages will gradually emerge; the national macro-control will become more stable and mature, and the stability and continuity of foreign trade and economic policies will provide a solid foundation for the continuous growth of exports.

"Before the structural problem is solved, the external demand downturn may continue for quite a long time.

However, as long as there is no global financial and economic crisis, China will be able to maintain steady growth in exports.

Li Jian, a researcher at the Ministry of Commerce, said.

The responsible person of the Ministry of Commerce said that in the face of extremely complex international economic environment, we should closely follow the development and changes of the domestic and foreign economic situation, and strive to maintain the continuity and stability of the foreign trade policy. We should focus on building platforms, improving quality, cultivating brands and developing the market, and persist in promoting the pformation of the development mode of foreign trade. We should take practical measures to help enterprises solve practical difficulties, and strive to create a favorable environment for foreign trade development so as to achieve the coordinated development of foreign trade speed, quality and efficiency.