PTA Opportunistic Rebound

at present PTA futures There is fierce competition at the 8000 yuan / ton line. On the macro level Expect Under the background of relaxation, PTA will shake up the bottom, wait for the downstream to digest the unfavorable market and wait for the opportunity to rebound, but it can not rule out the impact of debt problems in Italy and other countries.

　　 PTA price approaches cost line

PX spot dropped sharply to $1400 / ton, but in October, it settled at $1620 / tonne. At the same time, the PX quotation in November was near $1500 / ton CFR. Domestic Sinopec's PX settlement in October 2011 was 11950 yuan / ton, down 1000 yuan / ton compared with September, equivalent to the import level of 1572 US dollars / ton. Its November contract pre payment price was issued at 12000 yuan / ton or 1585 US dollars / ton. It is calculated that the cost of PTA contract goods in November is about 8800, and the dynamic cost can be lower. Spot PTA current price in the vicinity of 8300 yuan / ton, and dynamic cost is close to flat.

　　 Polyester enterprises Fatigued and weak Quotation

But at the end of PTA10, the contract price of the mainstream suppliers is still 9750 yuan / ton, and the price difference with the spot price is about 800 yuan. The downstream polyester enterprises are forced to give up their profit margins of nearly 800 yuan / ton by using the contract goods, and the spot profit of polyester enterprises is between 1000 and 2000. Affected by this, the profit margins of the downstream enterprises are narrowed, and the purchasing power of the terminal looms is very small. Since November, the production rate has been basically maintained at 5 to 7 percentage points, and 11 - December is facing financial pressure at the end of the year. January is also facing the pressure of product sales during the Spring Festival, so most polyester enterprises will still mainly consider the control of product inventory. Under the dual pressure of demand reduction and cost squeeze, polyester enterprises are likely to reduce operating rate to cope with the current situation, and the actual market has already responded. No new polyester plant was put into operation in October. On the contrary, Jiangsu Hengli set up a 200 thousand ton polyester plant, a 250 thousand ton polyester plant in Jiangsu Huahong chemical fibre plant, a factory in Jiangsu's three Lane Lane and a Shaoxing Jiabao chemical fiber factory.

After the National Day holiday in October, for the sake of bank lending and other issues, enterprises still choose to switch on or increase their load according to the plan when they can still maintain capital production without serious losses. Therefore, the rate of opening up of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving has a short recovery after the national day. However, after late October, stock prices continued to shrink, and some of the weaving enterprises began to stop. Decline As a result, there has been a new round of decline in the opening rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. The volume of fabric market shows the market characteristics of "peak season", which is far from the same period last year.

Although looking at the whole industry chain of PTA, tight funds and the continuous reduction of product prices in various sectors are the main theme in recent years, the current stock level of polyester enterprises has hit the high point at the beginning of the year. Compared with the large losses at the beginning of the year, the current situation is not bad. Generally, there are profit margins. Together with lessons learned at the beginning of the year, polyester enterprises are more cautious and have made actions such as reducing production and shipping, so as to relieve their pressure. Because the industry is adjusting prices, as long as the inventory level is maintained at a reasonable location, cash flow will not be a problem, which will help late polyester enterprises to go out. dilemma 。

　 Funding side is expected to relax support price

The key to the short-term market is the change of macro environment, the market of terminal looms and the recovery of stocking emotions. On the macro level, under the background of domestic monetary policy fine-tuning, it is estimated that the new loan will be around 7 trillion and 500 billion yuan per year. This means that the fourth quarter credit policy is expected to remain relatively loose. Last week, both the RBOC and the European Central Bank announced a 25 basis point cut in the target rate. The Fed also reiterated its monetary policy to maintain zero interest rates until 2013. Under the expectation of global interest rate cuts, there is still some room for regulation of domestic capital. Affected by this, domestic commodities are expected to be stable, and will be good for PTA and other industrial products. The relaxation of capital side will also enhance the stocking mood of downstream enterprises and increase the space of stock appreciation. The PTA market will be stable. According to the running rhythm of the past PTA futures, there will be some buying opportunities in the far months. But Italy's bond yields have surged recently, approaching 7%. At present, the country is in a dilemma of not borrowing in the open market. It will soon face a turning point. The European debt crisis is still continuing. If further deterioration is made, the commodity market will still be difficult to improve.