Natural Rubber Stocks Rebound Or Flash In The Pan.

After the early fall, NR finally came to a strong rebound.

Monday, Shanghai rubber main contract 1201 rose 5.99%, Tuesday rubber continued to rise, 1201 contract continued to rise 1.64%.

At the same time, the rubber plate in yesterday's stock index rose slightly 0.04% of the environment, the overall rise of the plate, which Hainan rubber limit, double money shares rose 5.5%, while big rubber and Guizhou tire A rose near 4%.

However, from the analysis of the futures industry, rubber rebounded more because of policy expectations, and the fundamentals are not optimistic.

Therefore, the market for rubber futures and rubber stocks is likely to be short-lived.

Rubber rose again after a big fall

Some time ago, the futures market was on cloud nine.

Owing to the sharp demand of the early fall, there is a large demand for short profit taking, which has provided a precondition for overfall and rebound.

The trigger point was on the news side. After the rubber price hit a new low last Friday, the top three natural rubber producing areas in the world, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, announced this week that they will meet in Bangkok to seek a stable price move.

According to the news, when the market strongly expects the rubber producing government to take up the market, the international rubber price is on the rise on Monday, and the domestic rubber futures contract will be closed on Monday.

In the spot market, in 2011 1-9, the growth rate of China's rubber imports increased by 8.2%, while the output of the main products of the lower reaches increased by only 3.78%. The growth rate of natural rubber imports exceeded the consumption rate of domestic downstream products, leading to the formation of huge natural rubber stocks in China. The main factor determining the market was the huge natural rubber stock in China.

For the Shanghai Rubber contract recently in the downtrend, the repeated trading phenomenon, Jinyuan futures senior researcher Fan Yanwen believes that the overall market has not separated from the large shock interval, and the K-line trajectory is still in the downstream channel. After ushered in a rebound of 3 consecutive trading days, the continued rise of space will be inhibited by demand. It is suggested that investors can earn more profits in the short term, and the mid term new air alone pays attention to the 25500-25800 regional pressure, which will stop the loss by 26200..

Hu Zhenlong, GF futures researcher, maintained a concussion on the short-term trend of Shanghai rubber, and suggested that the original empty list should leave the day after trading.

Rubber stocks smell the wind.

Rubber stocks also took note of the sharp rebound in rubber in the commodity market.

Yesterday opened for an hour, rubber plate overall increase of 3.43%, large single net inflow of more than 3000 yuan.

Among them, Hainan rubber trading, double money shares rose 8.42%, the rest of the shares are all red.

However, the market did not benefit from the continuation of the strengthening, due to a slight increase of 0.04% in the Shanghai stock index yesterday.

At the close, Hainan rubber had not been opened after less than half an hour's opening.

Double money shares rose 5.5%, trading volume was second only to the half year high in September 8th.

12 of the 15 stocks of the entire rubber manufacturing sector rose.

According to the flush data, the same day the agency bought 271 thousand hands of Hainan rubber, sold 249 thousand hands, and bought 22 thousand hands, which accounted for the total turnover of 3.6%.. As of September 30, 2011, there were 13 main institutions (9 funds, 2 insurance companies, 1 general corporate, 1 brokerages) and Hainan rubber, holding a total of 93 million 312 thousand and 600 shares, accounting for 11.87%. of circulation A shares. Compared with June 30, 2011, the position of the fund increased by 4 and increased by 17 million 113 thousand and 100 shares.

There are 2 reduction positions and 4 million 925 thousand shares reduction.

According to the statistics of five institutions, the forecast of Hainan rubber's EPS in 2011 is roughly 0.23 yuan, and most of them have a prudent recommendation.

Market participants expect that from the futures market's overall concern about the sustainability of the strong rubber market, it is unlikely that the market will continue to deepen in the light of the fundamentals of the rubber manufacturing industry.