Short Term Stalemate In Zhengzhou And Cotton

First, Zheng cotton horizontal finishing performance is relatively anti falling.

At present, the basic news of cotton is rather dull, and the market lacks.

Two, international and domestic Fundamentals

1, the US cotton export contract situation continues to improve.

As the domestic and foreign cotton prices are strong and weak, the price advantage of imported cotton has gradually emerged, and this week the situation of the US cotton export signing continues to improve.

Affected by the imminent expiration of the quota for imported cotton, domestic cotton imports are more active, and the recent US cotton export signing rate continues to maintain a positive growth trend.

According to the US Department of agriculture (USDA), 11.4-11.10 signed a US net signing of 145059 tons of upland cotton this year, and shipped 36968 tons (52% higher than the previous week, 90% higher than the average four weeks). Net signed this year is 1633 tons of Pima cotton and 1746 tons of shipment.

When China signed a net contract this year, 142247 tons of land cotton and 19119 tons of shipment were shipped this year. Net signed this year is 680 tons of Pima cotton and 726 tons of shipment. "Optional signing" (first sign cotton and cotton later, cotton can be replaced by other producing areas) 119749 tons.

Countries and regions with the highest number of upland cotton during the week were: China (142247 tons), Vietnam (2087 tons, including 1996 tons pferred from China), Peru (998 tons) and Mexico (907 tons); net signing of negative countries and regions: Indonesia (-1497 tons), unknown area (-363 tons) and Thailand (-204 tons).

Countries and regions with the largest number of upland cotton during the week were: China (19119 tons), Mexico (4740 tons), Vietnam (4196 tons) and Turkey (2245 tons).

The countries and regions with the largest number of Pima cotton products in the week were Turkey (1043 tons) and China (680 tons), and Japan's net signing was negative (-136 tons).

During the week, Pima cotton was mainly shipped by China (726 tons), Indonesia (476 tons) and Pakistan (272 tons).

The countries that signed cotton next year were Ecuador (204 tons) and Indonesia (113 tons).

2, the market is still weak cotton price weak callback

At present, the cotton spot market is still in the doldrums. Many of the 200 small factories have been shut down. The lint produced can not be stored but can only be sold on spot.

And the 400 type big factory actively processing and storage, the acquisition aspect is relatively strict.

The price of cottonseed is decreasing, which makes seed cotton purchase price continue to be weak, and the profit margins of large factories are good.

At present, the purchase price of grade 4 seed cotton is lower than 4 yuan / Jin in some areas. Judging from the data of public inspection, the average grade of cotton and cotton in Shandong and Hebei in the Yellow River river basin is below 4 this year. Cotton farmers are reluctant to sell seriously. The quality of cotton in the Yangtze River Valley is above 4, and the purchase price is slightly higher than that in the Yellow River basin.

As of November 18th, China's cotton price index was 328 yuan for 19176 yuan, 82 yuan for the weekly ring ratio, 527 yuan for 16697 yuan, 54 yuan for the weekly ring ratio, 229 yuan for 20562 yuan, and 88 yuan for the weekly ring ratio.

3, trading remains in the doldrums, yarn prices continue to decline.

At present, the domestic yarn market is still weak, because the downstream weaving mills and cotton yarn distributors are only buying small quantities of cotton yarn carefully, the shipments of the cotton mill are more difficult, the inventory pressure is obvious, the phenomenon of limiting production and shutting down has increased.

In the early stage of the price reduction effect is not ideal, the yarn market trend of price reduction has eased, the price is still weak downward trend, but the decline is slowing down.

As of November 18th, the KC32S price of cotton yarn was 26350 yuan, the weekly ring ratio decreased by 260 yuan / ton, JC40S was 31050 yuan, and the weekly ring ratio decreased by 1150 yuan / ton.

Three. Technical analysis and Outlook

On the basic level, at present, the weakening of European and American economies has led to a sharp decline in textile export orders. The textile and garment exports announced last week fell for three consecutive months, indicating that the downstream market was not well exported.

And domestic textile consumption is also in a doldrums. Demand growth is not easy to appear in the short term, and textile enterprises will not have enough replenishment.

Against this background, yarn prices and cotton prices have dropped.

Judging from the disk side, this week's fierce competition between the two sides, at the 20400 pass deadlock, finally failed to hold the 20400 pass.

At present, the average system is arranged horizontally, supporting the price.

Although the implementation of the purchase and storage policy has restricted the decline of Zheng cotton to some extent, the fundamentals have not yet been improved, and it is difficult to attract the intervention of buying. Under the support of lack of capital and popularity, Zheng cotton can hardly go up sharply.

It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will continue to maintain a weak pattern next week, and will be sorted out in the 20200-20400 area.