The Most Difficult Period Of Cotton Textile Industry Has Not Yet Arrived.

"The most difficult period in the cotton industry is yet to come."

Despite the fall in cotton prices, the industry's senior researcher, the first textile network editor, Wang Qian Jin, is an industry leader.

In November 22nd, the national cotton price index B (grade 328 cotton spot) was closed at 19714 yuan / ton, down 21 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

The industry generally expects that the double bottom of the reserve mechanism and cost price will have little room for cotton prices to continue downward, but the terminal demand is weak, which means that the next 3-6 months will be the most difficult period for the cotton textile industry.

However, the industry also pointed out that if the end of the year manufacturers are forced to increase pressure on inventory pressure.

Cotton prices continue to fall little.

At this time last year, cotton prices were still heading for the 30 thousand yuan / ton track.

Such a hot situation is in sharp contrast to the current market of raw materials for cotton spinning.

According to the monthly report of China cotton price index, although cotton seed sale is at its peak in October, the new cotton market has increased significantly, but cotton prices are in a downward trend.

At the end of 10, the national cotton 328 index closed at 19409 yuan / ton, down 563 yuan from the end of 9, down 2.8%, and the monthly average price was 19716 yuan / ton, down 16 yuan, or 0.1%.

Wang Qian said that the current spot price of cotton has been lower than the state's provisional purchase and storage price, and the market turnover is still light. Therefore, the storage and pportation has gradually become the main channel for business operation.

Against this background, he expects cotton prices to stabilize at a low level.

It is also estimated that the cost of three grade fur and wool weight in Xinjiang's southern Xinjiang is about 20000-20300 yuan / ton this year, and the cost of lint four in Shandong is 17500-18400 yuan / ton.

As far as cost factors are concerned, Wang Qian also believes that there is little room for further decline in cotton prices.

Internal and external demand is both weak.

Although cotton prices fell little space, but Wang pointed out: "the recent cotton textile industry downstream data is not optimistic, the most difficult period of the industry has not yet arrived."

The recently concluded 110th Canton exchange (China Import and Export Fair) fully reflected the sluggish external demand: statistics show that in 2011, the Canton Fair turnover increased by 8.3%, an increase of 21.7% percentage points lower than that of last year by 13.4 percentage points, and the actual turnover of European and American purchasers decreased by 19% and 24% respectively.

Among them, 6

Less than half a month accounted for 88% of the short and medium bills.

All these data indicate that the slowdown in the US and Europe will seriously drag China's export situation.

Even the textile and garment enterprises exhibiting even believe that the current situation is even worse than the financial crisis in 2008.

Consumer demand in the domestic market is also not optimistic.

According to statistics of China Federation of Commerce and China National Business Information Center, 10

Clothing sales volume and volume growth in February showed double slowdown.

Retail sales of 100 large retail enterprises increased by 16.73% compared to the same period last year, and the growth rate was 15.12 and 11.86 respectively.

Retail sales fell by 5.82% over the same period last year, and the growth rate fell by 8.02 and 18.06 percentage points respectively.

"The data of Canton Fair will be forerunner, and the impact of the slowdown in the volume of orders will appear in the next 3-6 months." in Wang's view, it will be the most difficult period for the whole industry.

However, it is worth noting that Everbright Securities recently issued a report that sales decline in October and "warm winter" and shopping malls weak sales have a certain relationship, with the "Spring Festival" and other holidays approaching, and businesses need to go to inventory, discount activities and strength will be at 12

There will be a marked improvement in the first quarter of next month and the first quarter of next year, when domestic apparel retail sales growth is expected to return to normal.