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PTA Market Is Expected To Stabilize

2011/11/30 8:52:00 13

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Last month, the new Feng Ming group gathered more than a dozen.

polyester

Factory for raw material contract settlement and future

raw material

A meeting was held to increase supply. Recently, several major PTA production enterprises held a meeting to postpone the contract order next year, and the PTA price showed a marked decline.

Polyester factories and PTA enterprises have started the tug of war. In this case, will the market take a turn?

From the limited production situation, Sinopec, Yisheng petrochemical, Xiang Lu

Petrifaction

Far East petrochemical and other PTA production enterprises have said that there will be some measures to reduce production and maintenance in the near future. Sinopec's Shanghai petrochemical, Yizheng petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical have all started to stop; Yisheng Petrochemical two lines in December have been overhauled for 15 days, and other devices have been cut down; the current load of Xiang Lu Petrochemical has dropped to about 8 yuan, and there are small area maintenance plans, and two lines of the Far East petrochemical company have maintenance plans in December and January next year, respectively, in December.

In addition, Zhuhai BP production line in December parking capacity expansion, Peng Wei Petrochemical plans to overhaul December.

If these cut-off plans can be implemented as scheduled, the overall supply of PTA will be significantly reduced, and the spot market will be stable.

However, I believe that part of the maintenance of PTA enterprises is outside the plan, mainly depending on the market conditions. If the market improves, some enterprises may not park.

At present, the market is extremely worried about the important reasons for next year's PTA market. It also includes many PTA devices coming into operation next year.

But from the time point of view, the production is basically concentrated in the second half of next year, and the real release of capacity is also in the second half of next year or 2013. Enterprises with new PTA capacity should purchase raw materials of PX in advance. Therefore, I believe that the market will not be bad in the first half of next year.

Many people focus on the PX plate, because it belongs to semi monopoly, and the right to production and pricing are basically concentrated in the hands of foreign investors.

Next year, the overall strength of the PX market is very great. PTA enterprises are subject to this, and the price of products may remain high.

Compared with the downstream polyester, PTA production enterprises are more concentrated, many large polyester enterprises have supporting PTA devices, such as Hengyi, Rong Sheng, Far East and Tong Kun will have PTA new capacity commissioning next year.

Therefore, the author believes that the PTA enterprise will be relatively strong, stable market and determination for the future market will be firm.

At present, polyester enterprises are not selling well and their inventories are increasing. Although the inventory level is above 15 days, the Spring Festival earlier this year may lead to a marked increase in inventory in the near future.

The downstream textile enterprises also basically reflect losses, and the order situation is not good.

However, judging from the clothing situation, this year's overall clothing prices increased significantly compared with last year, in the cotton and PTA prices fell overall situation, terminal clothing prices have not dropped.

In addition, the weather is slightly abnormal this year, the temperature is relatively late, making the fabric sales start late in winter.

Once the weather is cold, the gradual start of the fabric market in winter will drive some downstream markets to warm up.

At present, PTA futures will hold about 180 thousand hands in January next year. There is not much reduction in recent days.

Near the end of the year, early shorting or spot delivery may support the spot market. With the earlier spring festival, some polyester enterprises and traders have prepared the possibility of annual goods.

To sum up, the author believes that the possibility of PTA market going down sharply in the near future is small, and the possibility of adjustment is stable.