Analysis Of Short Term Market Trend Of Cotton At Home And Abroad

Early stage

Although the US cotton export contract volume is larger, the actual shipment volume has a big gap compared with the previous years. This year's international resource situation is different from previous years. The global high-yield (except the United States) plus the depression of consumption, the dual pressure of supply and demand squeezes the export market of American cotton, and the export of US cotton exports is hit by the southern hemisphere, and the ICE weak situation is difficult to change.

However, with the gradual listing of new cotton in the United States, the export volume at the end of the year is a big probability event.

Cotton storage and storage in the country has been at a high level, reaching 35000 tons per day. According to this progress, by the end of March next year, the storage capacity may reach more than 3 million tons.

Affected by this, the recent market has worried about the tight domestic resources after the end of the purchase and storage.

China's cotton production last year was around 5 million tons, and the output of the agencies is above 7 million tons this year. In the rule of receipt and storage, it is clear that it is possible to hand over grade 4 cotton, which provides favorable conditions for the storage and storage of cotton in the mainland.

Second, because of the high yield of cotton in the southern hemisphere this year, domestic traders have worried about the stock exchange because they did not focus on the domestic market. They signed the cotton in the southern hemisphere ahead of time, so this year cotton imports in China showed the obvious characteristics of the boom in the off-season, and the end of the year is the concentration period of US cotton to port, and the expected high import volume is expected to be maintained.

Thirdly, due to the drop in global cotton prices, textile giants such as India and Pakistan have been hit, and domestic cotton yarn hoarding is serious. China imported cotton yarn down last year because of the substitution effect of chemical fiber and the high price of cotton. However, in the second half of the year, the import of cotton yarn rapidly recovered, and its monthly growth rate was over 20%, which also squeezed domestic cotton demand to a certain extent.

Finally, the Chinese textile industry encountered a cold winter, especially cloth sales this year is particularly unsatisfactory. According to the statistics of the Central Cotton Information Center, as of November, the inventory of the cloth mill is still over 40 days, which is the peak season in previous years.

On the whole, it is still very difficult for Zheng cotton to produce a trend market in the near future, and the actual price will not be separated from 20400 yuan / ton.