The Blue Book Of The Academy Of Social Sciences: The Economy Depends On Exports Or Is Fundamentally Reversed.
The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the economic blue book in 2012: analysis and forecast of China's economic situation in 2012.
Blue Book
It is expected that the global financial crisis will continue to persist for a long time. China's economy depends on exports or is fundamentally reversed.
The blue book points out that the financial crisis since 2008 is a global economic crisis, which is a serious one.
degree
It can be compared with the two major global crises in 1930s and 70s.
crisis
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The general judgement is that the crisis may take ten years or even longer to recover.
According to the blue book, the basic reason for this judgement is that the global economic crisis reflects the serious distortion of the economic development pattern, economic structure, financial structure and financial structure of developed economies for many years.
This crisis is a crisis of the global economic development mode; the crisis is a crisis of global economic structural imbalance; this crisis is a crisis of excessive development of the financial industry; this crisis is a financial deficit crisis.
The blue book also points out that prices are expected to fall in the next year, and CPI will rise by 4.6%.
In 2011, the rising rate of CPI in China continued to run high, and the increase in CPI could still reach about 5.5%.
There are no major changes in the main factors contributing to the rapid rise in prices. There are still many challenges to stabilize prices.
The blue book predicts that the GDP growth rate in 2011 will exceed nine. In 2012, if the international economic and political environment does not deteriorate significantly, there will be no serious natural disasters and other major problems in the country. Although the economic growth rate will continue to decline, it will remain at a reasonable growth interval, and the GDP growth rate is expected to reach 8.9%.
According to the blue book, overall, China's economic growth started from policy stimulus to an orderly pition to independent growth. Domestic inflation was gradually relieved from cumulative release. Although economic growth in 2011 and 2012 has dropped, it still operates in a stable and faster growth area.
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