The RMB Traded Against The US Dollar At 8 &Nbsp, And Then Declined.

　　●

In fact, the RMB's limit is only relative to the middle price, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US has even appreciated in these 8 days.

However, this seems to indicate the possibility of two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate.

In the future, if the RMB really depreciates, the securities will be depreciated.

In December 9th, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.3352, though the renminbi was on the spot against the US dollar.

Among the reasons for the continuous fall of the RMB exchange rate, the devaluation of foreign currency leading to RMB devaluation is considered to be one of the main reasons.

There are even market participants who point out that the recent "down" of the renminbi against the US dollar in the spot market has led to a sudden disappearance of the appreciation of the renminbi. In the future, the RMB may end its unilateral appreciation, and bilateral fluctuations will go up and down and become more market-oriented.

Phenomenal essence

The reason for the plunge is complex and changeable.

In recent years, the RMB exchange rate has hardly seen a continuous "limit down" situation for several days. In addition to the financial crisis leading to the return of capital to the European and American markets at the end of 2008, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar for 4 consecutive days touched the limit.

The industry believes that this round of RMB exchange rate "8 limit" reasons are complex.

Zhang Monan, an associate research fellow at the state information center, once said, "there are both short-term demand shocks and long-term capital gains. There are both external arbitrage drive and capital withdrawal, as well as expected changes in internal economic growth.

In addition, do not rule out some agencies.

Empty China's economy and short Renminbi. "

For example, the European debt crisis caused the hedge fund to buy US dollars and increase the demand for us dollars. The US dollar rose strongly, making the RMB exchange rate down against the US dollar.

At a low annual level, many large multinational companies have the need to convert Renminbi into dollars, making the US dollar tight.

At the same time, there is a gap between the RMB exchange rate and the offshore exchange rate. Under the background of the increasing demand for foreign dollars, some enterprises and financial institutions also buy dollars in the mainland to sell dollars outside the country to earn interest rates.

{page_break}

It is possible for the two sides to fluctuate.

However, because the middle price is still rising, even if there is a continuous limit, the real exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar is going up.

Take the last two days as an example, on Wednesday, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.3342, and the limit price touched on that day was 6.3659. On Thursday, the price of RMB rose to 6.3319 against the US dollar, and the daily limit price was 6.3636, which was 23 basis points higher than the previous day's limit price.

If we look at the past 8 days, this kind of surface limit but the actual appreciation phenomenon is more obvious.

Since last Wednesday, the inter-bank spot market has touched the daily limit price. However, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar has risen from 6.3482 to 6.3352, and the real appreciation has been 130 basis points.

At present, most institutions and economists expect that although the bilateral fluctuation of RMB will increase next year, the possibility of phased depreciation will not be ruled out.

Li Daokui, member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, also said that the current RMB exchange rate is near equilibrium point, and the possibility of RMB depreciation next year is very small.

Zhao Qingming, an adjunct professor at the finance and Economics College of the University of foreign trade and economics, believes that the expectation of RMB devaluation is still temporary and short in terms of the current international and domestic economic situation and financial market environment. The trend of RMB appreciation has not changed in the future.

Of course, since the exchange rate reform in July 21, 2005, the RMB has appreciated more than 30% against the US dollar, and the RMB has been closer to the equilibrium exchange rate. In the future, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will change the previous trend of unilateral appreciation, showing a more significant two-way fluctuation trend.

Stock market influence

Short term negative effects expect observation

What will be the impact of the 8 exchange rate on the stock market?

In fact, in the second half of last year, "coal flying color dance" market, its important inducement was "hot money inflow". At that time, the US dollar continued to depreciate, and the US dollar index continued to fall, triggering hot money into the A share market, thus leading to a wave of market.

Today, the US dollar index is rising and the US dollar is rising, which makes the market expect the hot money to quit. The A share market, which was originally short of money, is facing such expectation, and the short-term impact is inevitable.

However, there are many reasons for the current market weakness, such as the expected economic downturn, such as tight liquidity.

The RMB exchange rate has been 8 down, but it does not seem to have a big impact on the A share market as a whole.

In the past 4 trading days, the Shanghai stock index is above 2300, and the fluctuation is very small.

However, the changes in the RMB exchange rate have had a significant impact on the plate and individual stocks, and the steel and aviation sectors have been affected by bad profits and the trend is low.

The QDII fund has therefore lifted the "exchange" alert and has recently shown strong performance.

The devaluation of RMB has a more direct impact on the performance of export oriented companies, and specific industries, including textiles and clothing, are expected to benefit directly.

If Yi Bang investment pointed out that the depreciation of the RMB will directly affect the performance of export oriented companies.

Specifically, textile and clothing, electronic and electrical appliances, toy shoes and hats, furniture, building materials, construction machinery and so on.