Soochow Futures: PTA Narrow Range, Lack Of Trend Direction

Last week, five PTA

From the post office position, the TA1205 contract COFCO futures increased more than 111 single hand to 10985 hands, and the National Alliance futures reduced 659 to 11636 hands.

From the perspective of the position structure, the first 20 positions are 16457 (-4969).

In December 9th, the PTA registered warehouse receipt was 200, with a decrease of 0 pieces, with an effective forecast of 1399 and a total of 1599 pieces (7999 tons PTA).

In terms of international oil prices, the news in China and the United States is very different. In December 9th, New York crude oil futures contract rose 1.07 dollars or 1.14% in January to 99.41 dollars / barrel, ICE Brent crude oil January contract rose 0.51 dollars or 0.5% to 108.62 U.S. dollars / barrel.

The upstream price of naphtha is 887 (-24) US dollars / ton CFR Japan, MX spot price is 1186 (-13) USD / ton FOB Korea, Asia PX spot price is 1430 (-3) USD / ton FOB Korea, PTA dynamic guaranteed price is near 8379 yuan / ton.

PX- naphtha oil price difference is 543 US dollars / ton, PX profit 193 US dollars / ton.

On the spot, the market is stable, and the atmosphere of catching up continues to fall.

The price of PTA spot trading in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 8500 yuan (+0) yuan per ton, and the price of Taiwan's PTA in the outer market is 1100 (+0) dollars / ton, which is equivalent to RMB 8701 yuan / ton.

The price of polyester filament and staple fiber in the downstream market has increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. Most factories and factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are near the level of production and sales, and some of them have dropped to 5-8.

In the terminal market, the total volume of China Textile City in December 9th was 673 (+4) million meters, and the filament fabric was 5 million 920 thousand meters, and the short fiber cloth was 810 thousand meters, of which cotton cloth was 310 thousand meters, TC cloth was about 130 thousand meters, TR cloth 260 thousand meters, and cotton 40 thousand meters.

On the news side, China's textile exports in November 2011 amounted to 8 billion 35 million yuan, an increase of 13.6% over the same period, a year-on-year increase of 7.87%, the first increase in three months, and a 12 billion 357 million increase in clothing exports in November, an increase of 3.5% over the previous year, a -3.03% increase of the ring.

In November, the total export volume of textiles and clothing was 20 billion 392 million yuan, an increase of 7.2% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 0.1%.

In November, the retail sales of domestic textiles, shoes and hats were 80 billion 500 million yuan, an increase of 22.5% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 7.3%.

Domestic textile export growth has stagnated, and export prospects are still not optimistic.

Technical side shocks near the 5 day moving average.

Summary: last week, five PTA futures were repeatedly oscillating in the 8300-8400 interval, and continued to weaken, and 8450 yuan faced greater resistance.

The PTA market has been stronger than other chemicals since last week, mainly due to the improvement of supply and demand side.

Since the Xiaoshan conference in November 23rd, the PTA factory's limited production and price protection has been strengthened, which has effectively boosted market confidence.

The macro face to face rate reduction has stimulated the downstream textile enterprises to focus on stocking enthusiasm before the festival.

Polyester polyester market is changing rapidly, products continue to flourishing, and filament and staple inventory pressure has dropped sharply.

The factory's price rises are very strong.

Since late November, the price of polyester filament FDY and POY has increased by more than 1000, exceeding the PTA spot price increase in the same period, increasing profits, and increasing the starting rate of polyester, which boosted the PTA spot market.

However, textile and garment export data in November showed that the situation of external demand is still grim, and the demand for terminal textile has not improved substantially. The centralized replenishment of stocks in the lower reaches is coming to an end.

At present, good profits have been basically digested by the market, and the momentum of supply and demand is improving, and the kinetic energy of PTA price increases is weakening.

On the macro level, the EU summit and China central economic work conference did not bring more surprises to the market.

The focus of the market this week is the interest rate resolution announced by the Federal Reserve on the morning of December 14th.

Before the outcome is uncertain, PTA futures will maintain a narrow market for the first half of the week, or half a week.