The Main Force Of Zheng Cotton Will Shift Upward To &Nbsp, Or Will Continue To Oscillate.

　　 Zheng cotton Main CF205 contract week closing price of 20555 yuan / ton, compared with last week's closing price (20415 yuan / ton) rose 140 yuan / ton, or 0.69%; CF205 weekly turnover reduced 302 thousand and 400 to 411 thousand and 500 hands, weekly holdings 20 thousand hand to 183 thousand and 800 hand, weekly trading positions were reduced. On the 5 th -9 day, the ICE cotton futures contract closed at 90.43 cents per pound in March 2012, down 1.41 cents / pound compared with last week.

Cotton (20440,15.00,0.07%) chemical fiber Prices have gone up and down.

December 5th -12 9, the average price of 328 cotton week 19026 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 9 yuan / ton; 527 cotton week average price 16466 yuan / ton, fell 12 yuan / ton; 229 grade cotton week average price 20276 yuan / ton, fell 20 yuan / ton. In the current market trend this week, 328, 527, 229 cotton prices fell slightly after 5 days, after four consecutive days of rise, 328 cotton 19000 points to stabilize. On the 5 th -9 days, the average price of China's cotton import price index FCIndexM weeks was 106.44 cents / pound, the average tariff of 1% fold was 17139 yuan / ton, or 7 yuan / ton, the average price of the sliding quasi tax week was 17684 yuan / ton, up 62 yuan / ton, and the sliding average price was 1342 yuan / ton lower than the average price of 328 cotton.

Related raw materials: 5 days -9 days, according to the price index of China fiber. Cotton lint The average weekly price is 3810 yuan / ton, up 226 yuan / ton compared with last week, the average price of cotton pulp weekly is 8510 yuan / ton, up 480 yuan / ton, viscose staple fiber 15270 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton; polyester staple fiber 11050 yuan / ton, up 360 yuan / ton. The prices of cotton lint, cotton pulp, sticky short, polyester and short are picking up this week.

Yarn price: 5 days -9 days, the average price of cotton yarn weekly is 19090 yuan / ton, up 80 yuan / ton; the average weekly price of KC32S pure cotton yarn is 25560 yuan / ton, down 350 yuan / ton; JC40S pure cotton yarn 30770 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton. The weekly average price of pure cotton yarn continued to fall, but on the 8 th -9 days, the price of pure cotton yarn showed stable characteristics.

Domestic storage and storage has reached 1 million 370 thousand tons.

As of December 9th, cotton temporary storage and storage totaled 1368910 tons in 2011, and 941680 tons in Xinjiang. The total volume of transactions in the mainland was 427230 tons, with a turnover rate of 68.79% and 31.21% respectively. At present, the major cotton acquisition processing enterprises are making full efforts to process the seed cotton purchased in the early stage, and the first choice for the sale of lint from the enterprise is to hand over the stock.

According to data from the US Department of agriculture (USDA), 11.25-12.1 signed a week of US net signing of the export of -7734 tons of upland cotton this year, shipping 51075 tons (an increase of 48% over the previous week, an increase of 59% over the average of nearly four weeks), net signing of Pima cotton -2540 tons this year, shipment of 4445 tons, and net signing of 249 tons of upland cotton next year. In the week, China signed a net contract of 6055 tons of land cotton and shipped 26739 tons this year. Net signed this year is 1973 tons of Pima cotton and 2223 tons of shipment. China's domestic cotton price is much higher than the international cotton price, which is one of the factors that China actively purchases imported cotton. However, Bangladesh, South Korea, Vietnam and Pakistan are canceling American cotton orders, and the total elimination of the four countries is 16216 tons. According to the US Department of agriculture's supply and demand report in December, the US cotton export volume was 11 million 300 thousand bales in 2011/2012, which was equal to that in November. In 2011/2012, the US cotton output was 15 million 830 thousand packs, compared with the 16 million 300 thousand package in November, which reduced by 470 thousand packages. But global cotton consumption is still suppressed.

According to the customs data of China, in November 2011, the total exports of China's textile yarn, fabrics and products, garments and accessories were 20 billion 392 million dollars, an increase of 7.22% over the same period last year, an increase of 3.77% compared to the same period. The growth rate of the ring chain has been reversed by 8, 9 and 10 for a period of three months. The demand for the traditional festivals in the United States and Europe has played a stimulating role. In 1-11 months, the total export volume of China's textile yarn, fabrics and products, clothing and accessories was 226 billion 156 million dollars, representing an increase of 21.20% over the same period last year.

　 CPI continues to drop investment export growth decline

According to statistics released by China Statistics Bureau, in November 2011, the national consumer price level (CPI) increased by 4.2% over the same period last year, down 1.3 percentage points compared with 5.5% in October. In November, the producer price of industrial producers (PPI) increased by 2.7% over the same period last year, a 2.3 percentage point lower than that in October, and CPI and PPI fell for four consecutive months.

In the 1-11 month of 2011, the fixed assets investment of the whole society (excluding farmers) was 269452 billion yuan, an increase of 24.5% over the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped 0.4 percentage points over the 1-10 months, which rose 21.2% in November. In November, fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) decreased by 0.19%. The growth of investment is decreasing.

In November 2011, the total retail sales of social consumer goods totaled 16129 billion yuan, an increase of 17.3% over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points compared with October (17.2%). Among them, the sales volume of clothing, shoes and hats and needle textiles in Enterprises above designated size was 80 billion 500 million yuan, up 22.5% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 3 percentage points higher than that in October (19.5%). Overall, the domestic market in November was stable.

In November, the total value of China's imports and exports was 334 billion 400 million US dollars, an increase of 17.6%. Of which, exports of US $174 billion 460 million, an increase of 13.8%, and imports of US $159 billion 940 million, an increase of 22.1%. The trade surplus of that month was 14 billion 520 million US dollars, narrowing 34.9%. Since August 2011, China's monthly export growth has dropped by 24.5%, 17.1%, 15.9% and 13.8%, respectively. The growth rate of China's commodity exports has continued to fall, and the situation is not optimistic. By 2012, China's foreign trade will still face many challenges, such as the slowdown in world economic recovery and the downturn in external demand. In the three carriages, domestic sales are relatively stable, and investment and export growth rates are decreasing.

Hu Jintao, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, presided over the meeting of the Political Bureau on 9 April, and requested that the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy be implemented next year. According to the changes of the situation, we should make pre adjustment and fine-tuning, adhere to the policy of price adjustment and unwavering, promote the rational regression of housing prices, and ensure that the overall level of prices is basically stable. {page_break}

　 ECB's further cut in EU summit

On the 8 day, the European Central Bank announced that it would cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1%. The rate cut is the second time since Delagi took over Trichet, the first time in November 3rd, the interest rate cut by 25 basis points to 1.25%.

The EU summit ended in Brussels on 9 local time. In addition to the 26 member states outside the UK, the EU strengthened its fiscal discipline and agreed to conclude an intergovernmental treaty, or "financial contract", which has made an unneglecting step towards the EU's fiscal integration. In addition, EU leaders agreed to expand the euro zone rescue fund by 200 billion euros and strengthen the anti deficit provision. The EU summit agreed to launch the eurozone permanent rescue mechanism, namely the European stability mechanism, to expand the rescue capability one year ahead of schedule. The European stability mechanism was set to start in July 2013.

　　 Zheng cotton will continue to shake up next week.

On the trend of technology, the closing price of the CF205 contract of zhengmian main force has broken through the 20000-20500 interval of October 17th -12 2 since December 5th, and the trend of gravity has shifted upward, and the center of gravity has shifted upward. It has touched 60 day moving average for 4 consecutive trading days. The 5 day moving average has already been on the 60 day line, but the highest price in the week is blocked by 1.618 in the 24 -11 interval of November 14th.

On the whole, domestic cotton spot and chemical fiber prices began to pick up, while the price of cotton yarn stabilized temporarily, and the total domestic storage and storage reached 1 million 370 thousand tons. The supporting role of purchasing and storage became more obvious, and domestic textile enterprises had a temporary demand for replenishment before the Spring Festival holiday. Domestic inflation declined, but the investment and export of the two carriages slowed down, and the European Central Bank cut interest rates. The EU conference had made progress in fiscal discipline and rescue funds. On the whole, Zheng cotton's main CF205 contract will continue to be more volatile next week, focusing on 20500 front-line support, but there will be strong resistance near 20805. Far from the long term operation of the CF209 contract, more still can be expected.