High Volatility And Strong Industrial Chain Temporary Stable Price Will Maintain A Rebound Pattern

PTA futures continued to rebound for more than a week, the price center of gravity increased significantly, the bottom of the 8000 yuan lower stage was tamped. In December 1st, the domestic central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio and other good incentives. The 1205 contract jumped to a higher level of over 8400 yuan, and then continued strong shocks upward. Since December, the rebound has exceeded 5%.

S & P will be the 15 euro zone Country Listed on the downgrade watch list, and Germany and France may lose AAA credit rating. The outlook for the European debt crisis is still uncertain.

In November, China and European Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data fell below the withered point. The spot exchange rate of RMB touched the limit for 6 consecutive days, triggering the association of RMB devaluation to export promotion and concerns about the economic downturn.

Under the influence of geopolitics, crude oil prices are rising again, high and volatile. On the news side, the EU is likely to support an oil embargo against Iran in January next year. China, India, Japan and South Korea imported crude oil from Iran, which accounts for 60% of the country's total crude oil exports. If the sanctions or war broke out in the end, the price of oil will fluctuate in a short period of time in the short term.

In November 23rd, Sinopec invited the upstream and downstream enterprises of PTA to hold PTA in Xiaoshan, Hangzhou. Quotation At the seminar, the delegates basically reached a consensus on limited production and insured prices. Current downstream polyester The stage of warming has begun to drive the entire PTA market to stabilize and rebound. At present, the limited production capacity of some PTA producers in China is 5 million 950 thousand tons. In 2011, PTA's domestic production capacity has exceeded 20 million tons, and the production capacity of nearly 6 million tons is already small.

Affected by the PTA industry's limited production and price protection measures, the upstream raw material has not rebounded sharply with the downstream price of xylene (PX), which is still below 1400 US dollars / ton. Because of the high oil price, PX has limited space. In December, PX Asia ACP finally came out at the price of 1390 US dollars / ton CFR, and the corresponding PTA cost was 8200 yuan / ton. In terms of current oil prices, PX manufacturers have made concessions to downstream customers, and profits have been reduced to around us $100 / ton.

According to statistics, since December, the start-up rate of downstream weaving factories has generally recovered to 8%-9%, rising to 60% level. Affected by this influence, and with the preparation before mid week, the production and sales rate of polyester factories began to blowout, and the production and marketing rate rose to 400%~500%. The rate of production and marketing of individual factories was 900% higher, and the price of polyester products was all red. Polyester production and sales rebounded, inventories significantly reduced. Polyester stocks in mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have dropped more than 4~6 days. In Jiangsu, a small number of factories with FDY dominated (full stretch yarn) stocks dropped by about 10 days. At present, polyester FDY, POY (high-speed spinning) factory inventory is only 7~9 days, polyester POY mainstream 150D quoted 11750 yuan / ton, by the end of November so far rebounded more than 500 yuan / ton.

The average price of the PTA market in December is likely to continue to rise moderately compared with November, and the bottom of the phased market will appear. However, the decline of the start-up rate of weaving factories near the Spring Festival will still restrict its strength. In addition, polyester factory maintenance and loss reduction plan will gradually increase in December.

Generally speaking, the PTA industry's limited production and insurance policy has a more obvious impact on the price of PTA, and the reduction in production in November 2008 has led to a continuous rebound in market prices. In March and August this year, the shutdown of PTA plant also played a role in stabilizing the market in the near future. Polyester industry has already appeared at the bottom stage. The unexpected reduction of the deposit reserve ratio will stimulate the psychology of the upstream and downstream markets relatively obviously, but the construction of the bottom may still take a long time. During this period, we still need to be alert to systemic risks from the macro level.

At present, the entire PTA industry chain is being de stocking, and has entered a relatively balanced market structure. In November, macroeconomic data have been released, and the improvement of the real economy will take a long time. It is expected that the PTA market will continue to maintain a rebound pattern and strong broad shocks will follow. After the PTA1205 contract opened sharply in the early days, it continued to adjust strongly to take out the small line, and the price is stable over the short-term average. The short term is expected to challenge the 60 day moving average of 8600 yuan.