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Polyester Staple "Startling At Every Step"

2011/12/13 14:12:00 10

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Since the beginning of 2011, the trend of polyester staple fiber market has had to sigh that it is really surging and complicated.

Whether upstream raw material costs, polyester market, or closely linked cotton dynamics or downstream market demand, are closely related to the nerves of polyester staple fiber.

The author divides the market trend of polyester staple into four stages.

The specific circumstances are as follows.

The first stage: "great happiness and great sadness"

First of all, let's look at the period from the beginning of 2011 to the end of May. It can be clearly seen from the above chart that the market trend of polyester staple fiber is inverted "V".

At the end of the year, in the "cotton crazy", PTA "rising tone", the polyester market "red hot" spawned, polyester short market situation is also in the winter "enthusiasm", the mainstream quotation center of gravity is "constantly rising", once rushed to the new high of 15200 yuan / ton, the scenery is not limited.

But the glorious moment did not last long, and then came a heavy blow to a short and short cut.

With the end of the cotton bull market, the lack of cost support and the deterioration of the market fundamentals such as the sluggish demand for the downstream market, the market situation of polyester and short price has gradually reversed, and the market has begun to fail. The market has not felt the breath of warm spring, and the decline has lasted for nearly three months.

Price

Also dropped to a new low in the past six months, or nearly 17%.

The second stage: "cloudy and sunny".

In the early June, the market of polyester staple fiber, which was "badly hurt", finally felt the smell of summer. In the upstream and downstream market, the cotton market rebounded, and the EU's anti dumping efforts on China's polyester staple continued for 6 years, the positive factors began to show signs of stop.

However, from the beginning of June to the rest period of September, polyester staple fiber still suffers from the alternation of hot summer and rainy weather.

In the tumbling regional fluctuation, the center of gravity of polyester and short prices is relatively rising, and the cost is pushed back to a high level of 14100 yuan / ton. However, it is difficult to sustain the gains.

The third stage: "exploration action"

This is the peak season for "golden nine silver ten", polyester staple fiber.

Quotation

But it ushered in a sharp fall in the market, and the expectation of the season to bring the market back to warmer heat was shattered, but it entered the hibernation period earlier.

The whole polyester staple market is chill, and the downstream market demand is in the doldrums, which is the biggest constraint. In addition, the upstream cost support is weakening, the cotton market is dropping more and more, and the European debt crisis and other external macroeconomic factors are dragging down.

The short cut of the "bottom story" has been falling for nearly two months, and the market quotation is generally dominated by a weak decline. The price of polyester staple fiber has dropped sharply to 10700 yuan / ton, reaching a new low from the year to the year. Compared with the high level in mid February, the drop is close to about 30%.

The fourth stage: can the bottom rebound be recovered?

Entering the late November, the market of polyester staple fiber

Appear

The signs of the end of the fall, followed by the focus of the mainstream quotation rebound, the market has entered a new wave of rising prices; this is mainly due to the macro unanticipated good news to boost short-term confidence in the market, coupled with the upstream raw material cost support, polyester market improvement and other favorable factors driven by the short and short manufacturers to limit production and insurance prices, and other actions to save the polyester and short market.

However, the author believes that under the uncertainty of market demand and the uncertainty of European debt crisis, the probability of long-term growth of polyester staple is not high; if we want to return to the level of the beginning of the year, we will have little hope.