Next Year'S Fiscal And Monetary Policy: Active In Seeking To Adjust &Nbsp; There Is Fine Adjustment In Stability.

"Central economic work conference" set the tone for next year's fiscal and monetary policies.

There is a fine adjustment in the positive adjustment.

The high-profile central economic work conference was held in Beijing in from December 12th to 14th.

The conference stressed that next year is an important year for the implementation of the "12th Five-Year plan" and will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a sound policy. monetary policy We must maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, enhance the pertinence, flexibility and foresight of regulation and control, continue to handle the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting the economic structure and managing inflation expectations, speeding up the spanformation of economic development mode and adjusting the economic structure, expanding domestic demand, strengthening independent innovation and energy saving and emission reduction, deepening reform and opening up, and ensuring and improving our efforts. Livelihood Keep Economics Stable and rapid development and overall price level are basically stable, maintaining social harmony and stability.

The general keynote of next year's economic work is "steady progress."

The conference put forward the main task of next year's economic work, and pointed out that "to push forward economic and social development next year, we must grasp the general keynote of steady progress." Stability is to maintain macroeconomic stability, maintain steady and rapid economic development, maintain a stable overall price level and maintain overall social stability. We must continue to seize and make good use of the important strategic opportunities for China's development, make new progress in changing the mode of economic development, make new breakthroughs in deepening reform and opening up, and achieve new results in improving people's livelihood.

Li Daokui, a professor at the Tsinghua University and a member of the monetary policy committee of the central bank, pointed out that "steady progress" should be "stable" on the one hand. On the one hand, we should also ask for "progress". In the key period of "12th Five-Year", China's economy must be promoted in the aspects of structural adjustment and Reform in key areas.

The deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council, deputy director of the Institute of financial research, believes that it is important to maintain a smooth macroeconomic environment and a smooth policy environment after the price pressure falls down. Usually only in the channel of economic downturn will the endogenous driving force and consensus of reform emerge. In a stable environment, it is easy to form new economic growth points, including interest rate, exchange rate adjustment, adjustment of resource factor prices and adjustment of rural financial services.

Zheng Xinli, executive vice chairman of the China International Economic and exchange center, pointed out that next year's priority should be to maintain steady and fast economic growth, that is, to support the steady and rapid economic development through the spanformation of the mode of economic development, while consolidating the results of this year's inflation suppression. This change is based on the actual operation of the economy to put forward targeted strategic decisions.

Wang Yiming, vice president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, said that with the spread of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and the plight of the US economy in high unemployment and high debt, the world economic outlook is low. Domestic small and medium-sized enterprises have difficulty in operation, and economic growth has dropped down quarterly. In such a complex situation, we must strive to maintain a good momentum of economic and social development in China, so we need to be "stable". At the same time, we should make use of the forced mechanism brought about by environmental changes to promote structural adjustment and deepen reform, so that people can enjoy more development benefits.

Bai Zhongen, vice president of the school of economics and management of Tsinghua University, believes that the risk of downhill economic growth will increase next year and should be "stable" in terms of growth. "Seeking progress" emphasizes speeding up structural adjustment and economic spanformation. At present, the core of "seeking progress" is to expand domestic demand and effectively increase the proportion of final consumption in the national economy.

Fiscal policy: seeking for structural adjustment in "positive"

The meeting pointed out that next year's economic work must "co-ordinate the relationship between the three parties in terms of speed, structure and price. In particular, it is important to solve the outstanding contradictions and problems in economic and social development and effectively prevent potential risks in the economic operation. We should thoroughly analyze the changes in economic development and operation trends, and accurately grasp the intensity, rhythm and key points of macroeconomic regulation and control.

"Next year, we should continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy. Fiscal policy should continue to improve the structural tax reduction policy, increase investment in people's livelihood, actively promote economic restructuring, tighten financial revenue and expenditure management, and strengthen local government debt management.

"Fiscal policy and credit policy should focus on strengthening coordination and coordination with industrial policies, fully reflecting classified guidance, supporting and controlling, and continuing to increase investment in the fields of agriculture, rural areas and farmers, affordable housing and social undertakings, and continue to support underdeveloped areas, technological innovation, energy conservation and environmental protection, strategic emerging industries, major national infrastructure construction and renewal projects, and technological spanformation of enterprises. We should strengthen budgetary management and strictly control the general financial expenditure such as "three public".

Liu Shangxi, deputy director of the Ministry of finance, pointed out that the current economic environment at home and abroad is very complex. At this time, China's macroeconomic policy still needs to be stable. Fiscal policy is to continue the existing "positive" tone, which is crucial to the current China's economy. Compared with the positive fiscal policy of the past two years, the current active fiscal policy has been adjusted in the focal point. At the time of the financial crisis, our main task is to maintain growth. Now the main task is to focus on ensuring growth. On the other hand, we must make efforts to adjust the structure. This will push forward the economic and social development of our country and realize the task of spanferring and adjusting the structure of the "12th Five-Year plan".

Wang Yiming, vice president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, believes that the positive fiscal policy has given new meaning and pays more attention to the role of structural tax reduction in promoting economic development.

Gao Peiyong, director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and director of the Institute of Finance and trade, pointed out that the central economic work conference clearly pointed out that fiscal policy should continue to improve the structural tax reduction policy, increase investment in people's livelihood and actively promote economic restructuring. This means that structural tax cuts will become the focus of next year's proactive fiscal policy. No one is familiar with tax cuts, especially structural tax cuts. In 2008, in order to resist the impact of the international financial crisis, the active fiscal policy included the content of structural tax reduction. However, structural tax cuts are not the focus of the active fiscal policy. They are only "supporting roles" and play an auxiliary role in the operation of the proactive fiscal policy, which is to increase government spending and expand public investment.

He pointed out that in recent months, the economic situation in Europe and the United States continued to shake, which had a great impact on the global economy in the slow recovery. Such a shock is unlikely to change fundamentally in the short term. The resulting radiation effects will certainly drag on China's economy, and even make the economy run a lot in the coming year. Facing the complicated and changeable macro-economic situation, it is very necessary for China to continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy next year. Therefore, the continued implementation of the proactive fiscal policy does not mean that the policy content of this year will be "copied" until next year. In view of the substantial changes in the economic situation at home and abroad, the operation in 2012 must be different from that in 2011. Among them, the biggest change is that structural tax cuts will replace the increase in expenditure to a certain extent, and become the main carrier of next year's proactive fiscal policy.

Monetary policy: fine-tuning in "robustness"

The meeting pointed out that "next year we should continue to implement a prudent monetary policy." According to the economic operation, monetary policy should be adjusted in a timely and appropriate manner. We should make comprehensive use of a variety of monetary policy tools to maintain a reasonable growth in the total amount of money and credit, optimize the credit structure, give full play to the positive role of the capital market, and effectively prevent and resolve potential financial risks in a timely manner.

Ba Sheng song, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, believes that the current situation at home and abroad has determined that China's monetary policy still needs to be steady. Although the rising prices have fallen somewhat, they are still in a higher position in history. At present, monetary policy does not have the conditions for turning.

Wang Yiming, vice president of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, believes that although monetary policy remains unchanged, it will strengthen targeted support for the development of the real economy of small and medium-sized enterprises and projects under construction.

For the next step how to fine tune the monetary policy, Guo Tianyong, director of the China banking research center of Central University of Finance and Economics, believes that monetary and credit policies will further intensify structural adjustment so as to help and control. The central bank recently held a meeting to propose "moderate, prudent, flexible and directional support". This is actually an explanation of how the central bank finely adjusts monetary policy. That is, although credit has been kept to a certain extent, it must be directed loosely, which supports the industries and fields that are conducive to structural adjustment, and it is by no means comprehensive loose.

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Ministry of macroeconomic development of the State Council Development Research Center, pointed out that monetary policy is also robust this year, but this year's stability includes a shift from loose to steady adjustment, from a relaxed mode to a robust mode, so we feel that monetary policy is tightening. This year's monetary policy adjustment has basically been in place, and the monetary policy is steady. At present, inflation has dropped somewhat, which has created room for monetary policy adjustment. The central bank has begun to pre adjust and fine tune the measures by reducing the deposit rate and other measures. Next year is around stability, intending to strengthen pre adjustment and fine-tuning, and maintain a reasonable growth in money supply. Fine-tuning in response to changes in the economic situation, structural adjustment, the need for enterprise spanformation and other factors.

Foreign banks experts have also made their own interpretation and forecast for the implementation of a prudent monetary policy next year.

Liu Ligang, director of economic research in the Greater China region of Australia and New Zealand, predicts that monetary policy will remain flexible next year, and that "prudence" does not mean that the intensity of monetary easing will be smaller. As the macro-economy is facing downside risks, monetary policy still has room for relaxation.

Zhu Haibin, chief economist of JP Morgan, expects that the central bank will reduce the deposit reserve rate for the three time in the first half of next year, and the new loan situation in the next few months will also improve, reaching 8 trillion and 200 billion yuan in 2012. Sun Mingchun, chief economist of Greater China in Hongkong company of Da he capital market, expects that the growth target of broad money (M2) will be set at 14% in 2012, and the scale of new loans may exceed 8 trillion and 500 billion yuan.

Continue to focus on expanding domestic demand, especially consumer demand.

The meeting pointed out that next year, we must speed up economic restructuring and promote the coordinated development of our economy.

"One is to expand domestic demand, especially consumption demand. We should rationally increase the income of urban and rural residents, especially low-income people, expand and develop the consumption field, promote the consumption of cultural, tourism, fitness, pension, housekeeping and other services, strengthen the construction of urban and rural market circulation system, improve the efficiency of circulation, reduce logistics costs, strengthen supervision and services, resolutely crack down on commercial fraud, counterfeiting and selling behavior, so that the masses can rest assured that consumption and safe consumption.

"Two is to promote and optimize the upgrading of industrial structure. We must persist in innovation drive, strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights, promote the combination of production, teaching and research, fully implement the outline of the national medium and long term science and technology development plan, and accelerate the implementation of major science and technology projects. To cultivate and develop strategic emerging industries, we must focus on promoting major technological breakthroughs and focusing on enhancing core competitiveness. To spanform and upgrade traditional industries, we must strictly guide industrial policies, further eliminate backward production capacity, promote mergers and reorganization, and promote rationalization of industrial distribution.

Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher of the State Council Counselor's office, pointed out that the change of external demand is difficult to control. In the future, China's economic development needs to be more based on domestic demand, more emphasis should be placed on structural adjustment, more reliance on reform and innovation, and more attention should be paid to improving people's livelihood. This is our way forward. China's economic power can not hope for long-term economic development on external demand. China's industrialization, urbanization and marketization are far from being completed, and the potential of domestic demand is amazing.

Zheng Xinli, executive vice chairman of the China International Economic Exchange Center, pointed out that the most important thing to change the way of development is to reduce investment rate and increase consumption rate. If "12th Five-Year" period can increase the consumption rate of residents by 10 percentage points, from 34% to 44% now, that means we can add 2 trillion yuan of goods every year.

Bason, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, pointed out that domestic demand includes consumption and investment. The consumption potential of our country is very large. The most reliable way to "advance steadily" is to increase consumption, because the biggest advantage of consumption growth is different from that of investment. Investment can be ups and downs. If consumption really stimulates, it will maintain long-term and steady growth of the national economy.

Yujiang Institute of fiscal and taxation research, Tsinghua University, pointed out that expanding domestic demand essentially refers to the adjustment of domestic demand structure, from investment and exports to consumption, in the final analysis, it calls for readjustment of the income distribution pattern. First of all, the allocation between the three governments, enterprises and residents, especially the excessive growth of government revenue, is in urgent need of containment. Enterprises need to solve the problem of dividends. State owned enterprises should substantially increase the proportion of branches, and private enterprises can encourage more dividends through tax reform. The second is to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, such as improving social security and protecting vulnerable groups.