The US Dollar Is Gaining Momentum In The &Nbsp, And The Yen Is Hard To Appreciate Unilaterally.

Last week, the US dollar slowed down, and it entered a very narrow concussion beginning Thursday.

As of 18:41 Beijing time on Monday, the dollar index temporarily reported 79.883 points.

In non US currencies, the yen is stronger and commodity currencies appear.

Risk appetite slightly increased

Last Friday, the US's durable goods orders increased by 3.8% in November, up 2.2% from the expected growth rate, which is also better than that in October.

Although the personal income and consumption data released in November are relatively flat, the overall situation is acceptable.

In addition, the US payroll tax reduction policy has been extended for two months.

In addition, European debt has not been very serious for the time being, and this factor also supports risk preference.

The US stock market closed at its highest level in four months last Friday, and the guiding role was obvious, so that the currencies such as Australian dollar and Canadian dollar strengthened gradually.

As far as the euro is concerned, the market mentality is very tangled, and it is expected that the euro zone can impose more.

Although Italy's bond yields rose 7% last week, it soon slipped below 7%, so it did not seriously suppress the euro.

US dollar rises and falls.

On the whole, the trend of foreign exchange market in recent holidays is very limited, because light trading is easier to be manipulated.

As for the central line, investors should pay attention to the two main lines of the progress of the European debt crisis and the sustainability of the US economic recovery. If there is no big surprise in the progress of the two main lines, the euro will easily slide further, and the US dollar will continue to rise.

In the case of the European debt crisis, the first quarter of next year will be the peak of financing in Italy and other countries. It is also the finalized session of the "fiscal agreement" which has been newly negotiated by Europe.

As long as the relevant news is repeated, the euro which has corrected the decline slope is easy to slip again, because the medium-term average system will be reconstituted.

In other respects, the Iran military exercise has made the prospect of the region even more uncertain. If the situation deteriorates again, it will also be relatively bad for the euro and is better than the US dollar.

The most recent support for the euro came mainly from the ECB's unexpectedly aggressive move to inject 489 billion euros into the European banking system.

However, from the perspective of market reaction, the strength of the euro's rebound seems to be very limited. This has shocked people's common sense, or reflected that the deep contradictions of euro are more serious than previously thought.

From an operational point of view, when inflation is not up, it should be bearish.

The ECB's radical move will help alleviate the European debt crisis, but it will slow down the pace of structural reform in Europe.

When the ECB has invested heavily, Greece, Italy and other countries with debt difficulties will have stronger dependence and more difficult to actively reform.

The unstable factor of the euro is the dollar surplus factor. For the dollar itself, its economic indicators have been significantly improved, making the QE3 more and more unrealistic, and this is an important supporting factor for the US dollar.

Yen issue record

Last weekend, Japanese authorities said they planned to issue 149 trillion and 700 billion yen in 2012, a record number.

In addition, Japan has a great resistance to raising sales tax in China.

The above two factors were the negative factors of the yen, but the yen increased significantly on Monday, from 78.09 to 1 to 77.92.

The main reason for the appreciation of the Japanese yen is the sharp rise in the value of the renminbi on Monday and the new high of foreign exchange earnings. The appreciation of the renminbi will cause the Japanese authorities to slide down their motivation to suppress the yen.

As for the huge volume of debt issuance in Japan, it is often ignored by people.

Japanese bonds are generally well digested at home, and global liquidity is now avoiding Europe, which naturally creates strong yen demand.

There may be another factor in the appreciation of the Japanese yen. Last week, the Japanese government predicted that GDP would increase by 2.2% in the next fiscal year, which is 1.8% higher than the general forecast.

The prediction is somewhat unexpected, which adds to the yen's strong momentum.

In the short run, the yen should be short of continuous action because the above reasons are far fetched.

First of all, the renminbi is unlikely to rise indefinitely, more likely to be just a gesture; secondly, the Japanese government's economic forecast is not necessarily objective, for the reason that when politicians want to persuade people to accept tax cuts, they tend to have more economic tendency.

Therefore, in terms of the currency of the yen, it may be better to sell high and sell low in the near future.